Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250945 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 545 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving low pressure will keep rain in the forecast through early Friday. Rain chances return for part of the weekend with another area of low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Adjustments to hourly trends for the pre dawn update. Previous...Ascent and deep layer moisture ahead of approaching low pressure should maintain the showers across the area this morning. The ascent/moisture is progged to shift N of the area by this afternoon as the low drifts across OH to Wrn PA. Scattered showers are expected through the rest of the day however with the close proximity of the low. Minimal instability is progged by afternoon, so maintained the isolated thunder mention in the forecast. The best, but still marginal, shear and instability is progged E of the area. Temperatures are expected to average around 5 degrees below the seasonal levels.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another area of ascent and deep layer moisture is progged to track across the region tonight as the low begins to drift E of the area, with increasing POPs for showers. A few showers could continue through Fri morning until the low exits the E coast and shortwave ridging builds in. The next approaching shortwave and surface warm front is progged for Fri night/Sat as surface low pressure tracks NE from the Srn Plains, resulting in shower chances increasing. Model progged instability is sufficient S of I 80 for thunderstorm chances also. The low is progged to track across the lower Great Lakes Sunday, dragging a cold front across the region. Maintained likely POPs for showers/tstms with it`s approach and passage. After below average readings Friday, temperatures should return to near or above average levels by the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper troughing is progged across the NE CONUS through most of the period. Individual shortwaves rotating through the trough should maintain periodic shower chances, with the Memorial Day holiday progged to see the least activity at this time. Temperatures should average within a few degrees of the seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An elongated slug of deeper moisture is approaching from the south and moving into MGW as of 06z. This should overspread most other sites in the next couple of hours east of ZZV. All sites should deteriorate to at least MVFR as saturation overcomes the effects of SE downslope flow off the ridges. Farther north, FKL/DUJ should be quickly mired in IFR conditions for the remainder of the night. Atlantic moisture fetch is cut off on Thursday as low level flow turns SW. This should shunt low level saturation progressively NEward, allowing for MVFR then VFR conditions to return to most sites with scattered showers still about as the upper low settles overhead. However, as it moves NEward Thursday evening, low level moisture will quickly wrap back in and trend cigs decidedly downward into Thursday night. Fries .Outlook... Showers continue through much of the period with episodic restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.