Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261819 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 219 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The surface boundary slowly dragging southward is expected to stall over the PA/WV border while a weak shortwave shifts across the southern CWA to help induce weak convection. Thus, slight to chance pops remain across the southern most zones where relatively greater instability develops. Have used the model blend solution to acquire temperatures and dew points since latest models differ on placement of aforementioned boundary. Temperatures will be above normal, but less humid conditions are expected than previous several days.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Guidance continues to keep the stalled boundary over the southeast zones and initiate convection over the most unstable areas while another weak shortwave crosses the region. Otherwise, Zonal flow/flat ridging should maintain dry, but continued warm weather through much of Wednesday. Thereafter, POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low is forecast to progress.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging should return dry weather by the middle of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday with building high pressure N of I 70. A weak surface boundary south of I 70 could result in a few showers through early tonight, so maintained a VCSH mention at MGW. Patchy MVFR fog is possible tonight, though expected cloud cover should limit this potential. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure should return potential restrictions late Thursday and Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction chances through the weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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