Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270500 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide for dry conditions today. An upper low will then return the chance for showers and seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Subsidence is beginning to take place as the boundary shifts off to the east. With some mixing expected to continue, dewpoints should continue to drop off, providing for dry and cloud free conditions through the day today. However, some low level moisture over the southeastern parts of our forecast area (south of I-70 and east of I-79) may not mix out fast enough to preclude some fog development early this morning. With southwest flow continuing on the periphery of the broad cut- off low over the northern Great lakes, and some slight warming, temperatures should be very close to average today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Temperature advection will be quickly neutralized on Tuesday, with warm advection resuming on the southeastern flank of Great Lakes low pressure. As such, temperatures were forecast near the seasonal averages. The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the Upper Ohio during the mid week period. As models are coming into more consistent depictions, confidence in the forecast of chance/scattered shower weather with sub-average temperature is improving. Few changes were made to the prognosis for this period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The aforementioned upper low is projected to fill/lift northeastward by next weekend with zonal flow resuming over the Upper Ohio Region. Predominately dry weather is thus forecast with seasonal temperature. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any MVFR restrictions in stratus this evening should be short- lived as a cold front completes its passage across most of the region and brings in much drier air. Mid/high level clouds will then continue for a few hours before skies clear. The one location that is expected to have restrictions after midnight is MGW, where the cold front may linger through the overnight hours. Although stratus will lift, fog is expected to develop at MGW with relatively light winds. By early afternoon on Tuesday, wind gusts up to 20 kts are expected at all terminals, with clear skies continuing through the day. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper-level low pressure will settle into the Great Lakes region through the week. Flight restrictions will be increasingly likely beginning Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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