Area Forecast Discussion
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712 FXUS61 KPBZ 262205 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 605 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass east of the area this evening with drier weather returning in its wake. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Convection along the pre-frontal trough has already moved east of the forecast area with the cold front now poised to pass east of Ohio within the next couple of hours. Organized showers along the front are exceedingly sparse, so PoPs have been reduced to just isolated and scattered wording with all thunder removed from the forecast. Post-frontal dry advection is very strong, and overnight mixing profiles suggest that wind gusts should bring dry air into the CWA fairly efficiently. This should preclude much fog development and result in clear skies through the day on Tuesday across the entire area. While colder air will be moving in, a deep mixing profile and abundant sunshine will keep afternoon highs at rather seasonable levels. Fries && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Temperature advection will be quickly neutralized on Tuesday, with warm advection resuming on the southeastern flank of Great Lakes low pressure. As such, temperatures were forecast near the seasonal averages. The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the Upper Ohio during the mid week period. As models are coming into more consistent depictions, confidence in the forecast of chance/scattered shower weather with sub-average temperature is improving. Few changes were made to the prognosis for this period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The aforementioned upper low is projected to fill/lift northeastward by next weekend with zonal flow resuming over the Upper Ohio Region. Predominately dry weather is thus forecast with seasonal temperature. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered showers and storms developed early this afternoon along a pre-frontal trough from near KDUJ-KAGC-KRLX. This boundary and its attendant storms will continue to shift ewd this afternoon and could impact KLBE/KMGW/KDUJ early before a sharp wind shift to nwly. In the wake of the pre-frontal trough passage, wind is expected to back slightly to wswly before a cold-frontal passage later this afternoon/early this evening. Broader coverage of showers will accompany the frontal zone, but these will wane with time as the low levels of the atmosphere dry in the post-frontal regime. MVFR cigs will be increasingly common this afternoon after passage of the pre-frontal trough, with vsby reducing to lifr/vlifr in any tstms that occur along the trough amid heavy rain. In the showers associated with the frontal zone, vsby may drop to 1-2SM in any stronger convective elements, but thunder will be quite limited in scope in this area with rapidly-waning deep instability. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper-level low pressure will settle into the Great Lakes Region through the week. Flight restrictions will be increasingly likely beginning Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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