Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020731 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 331 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. SMALL AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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