Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181501 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1001 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Second update made this morning to continue to adjust temperatures as once the inversion breaks, a 10 degree bump occurs. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to cloud cover through this evening as a slow moving wave approaches. With strong warm advection and ample sunshine through the early afternoon, temperatures will soar into the 60s for many locations. This could approach record warmth for several climate sites (see Climate section below). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A fair amount of model consistency has been noted leading into tonight`s system, but latest guidance has slowed it`s evolution some. The 00z GFS is a bit of an outlier, tracking the low further north than it`s brethren. Outside of the GFS, the model consensus is leaning towards more of a southern track, keeping the best rain chances across southern WV. The forecast has been modified towards this trend, trimming the northern extent of PoPs and overcast skies. The low translates east of the area quickly Sunday. Another strong ridge begins to build into the Great Lakes, eroding clouds through Sunday evening. In the wake of the departing weak low, slight warm air advection will establish with the building heights. This will keep temperatures well-above average, but a few degrees below today`s expected readings. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. A strong upper level ridge and associated surface high will support dry and warm conditions through Tuesday, followed by a fast moving upper wave dragging a cold front across the region Tuesday night. Despite the passage of the front, mid-level ridging will quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the central Plains by the end of period. Model guidance appears to be handling the overall trends in the upper level pattern well, with only minor differences in timing of the front on Tuesday night and evolution of the system for the end of the week. Thus, will stay close to a blend of solutions with tweaks made to temperatures as the Superblend tends to dampen anomalous values in the extended. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected to carry through the day as high pressure slides across the area. A passing low-level jet will keep a few hours of LLWS before mixing begins. Clouds will increase later today with the best chance of any precipitation or MVFR CIG restrictions at KMGW. MVFR CIG restrictions are then possible areawide Sunday morning. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures February 18: Pittsburgh, PA 66 (2011) Zanesville, OH 64 (2011/1994) Morgantown, WV 73 (1981) DuBois, PA 57 (1981) Wheeling, WV 60 (2008) New Philadelphia, OH 62 (1961) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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