Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262205
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
605 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016
A cold front will pass east of the area this evening with drier
weather returning in its wake.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Convection along the pre-frontal trough has already moved east of
the forecast area with the cold front now poised to pass east of
Ohio within the next couple of hours. Organized showers along the
front are exceedingly sparse, so PoPs have been reduced to just
isolated and scattered wording with all thunder removed from the
Post-frontal dry advection is very strong, and overnight mixing
profiles suggest that wind gusts should bring dry air into the CWA
fairly efficiently. This should preclude much fog development and
result in clear skies through the day on Tuesday across the entire
area. While colder air will be moving in, a deep mixing profile
and abundant sunshine will keep afternoon highs at rather
seasonable levels. Fries
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperature advection will be quickly neutralized on Tuesday, with
warm advection resuming on the southeastern flank of Great Lakes
low pressure. As such, temperatures were forecast near the seasonal
The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the
Upper Ohio during the mid week period. As models are coming into
more consistent depictions, confidence in the forecast of
chance/scattered shower weather with sub-average temperature is
improving. Few changes were made to the prognosis for this period.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned upper low is projected to fill/lift
northeastward by next weekend with zonal flow resuming over the
Upper Ohio Region. Predominately dry weather is thus forecast with
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and storms developed early this afternoon along
a pre-frontal trough from near KDUJ-KAGC-KRLX. This boundary and
its attendant storms will continue to shift ewd this afternoon and
could impact KLBE/KMGW/KDUJ early before a sharp wind shift to
In the wake of the pre-frontal trough passage, wind is expected
to back slightly to wswly before a cold-frontal passage later this
afternoon/early this evening. Broader coverage of showers will
accompany the frontal zone, but these will wane with time as the
low levels of the atmosphere dry in the post-frontal regime.
MVFR cigs will be increasingly common this afternoon after passage
of the pre-frontal trough, with vsby reducing to lifr/vlifr in
any tstms that occur along the trough amid heavy rain. In the
showers associated with the frontal zone, vsby may drop to 1-2SM
in any stronger convective elements, but thunder will be quite
limited in scope in this area with rapidly-waning deep
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper-level low pressure will settle into the Great Lakes Region
through the week. Flight restrictions will be increasingly likely