Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201942 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 342 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL WARMING AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST VERY MODEST INSTABILITY AND PRACTICALLY NO SHEAR...AS WAS PROGGED ON THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. WHILE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR...STILL THINK THAT A A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS...WHICH IS STILL IN THE 30-40`S ACROSS THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT A BIT MORE COVERAGE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...DO NOT THINK THAT SKIES WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE 60`S. ON MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST EDGES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE ELSE TO SUPPORT LIFT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER EAST. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY REGARDING A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE APPROXIMATE TIMING OF FROPA ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...ANALYSIS OF LATEST 10 GFS RUNS SHOWS MINIMAL CHANGE IN POSITION AND HEIGHTS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AS WELL. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WITH A SCT LAYER BETWEEN 2-3KFT BECOME BROKEN INTERMITTENTLY. SKIES WILL THIN OUT OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MVFR OR LOWER FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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