Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210534 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected with the approach and passage of a cold front through mid morning. Building high pressure will bring dry and less humid weather through mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No drastic changes to the overnight period. Have updated Pops using a combination of radar trends and a blend of hires model guidance. Kept in a mention of thunder with the pre-frontal trough and surface front, but with the best lift streaking northward and nighttime passage, mention was in the isolated category. Temperatures were refreshed with a blend of hires guidance. The front will exit to the east later this morning, so continued with the corresponding reduction in pops. In addition to the loss of rain, cloud cover will quickly decrease as the day progresses. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The trough axis will push through Sunday night. Northwest flow over the Great Lakes, and modest cold advection, may promote a few isolated showers overnight north of Pittsburgh. These will end by sunrise, with much drier air moving in. Monday and Tuesday will feature plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions, as surface high pressure crosses. Below normal temperatures on Monday, will rise closer to climatology on Tuesday as the air mass modifies and mid-level heights rise.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry weather continues through Wednesday with the passage of the mid-level trough axis. Humidity increases again Thursday in increasing southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night ahead of the next front. The boundary passes Friday or Friday night with continued rain chances. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the end of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Medium confidence forecast. A cold front will cross around daybreak spreading showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder to all terminals late tonight through the overnight. The period of time when a restriction in showers is forecast continues to decrease with subsequent model runs. Continued MVFR VIS restrictions with a period of IFR cigs at most terminals in wake of the front /11z- 15z/. This concurs with what happened this morning over IA and IL. Low level moisture hangs tough through the morning hours before owing to cirrus clouds from west to east during the afternoon. Several terminals will be just below IFR threshold...however despite guidance putting all airports below 1K opted to keep the more climo favored ones /PIT, LBE, and MGW/ just above. Winds will be from the south to southwest before turning to the west. Speeds will be around 10 kts the duration of the forecast. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will be early Monday with MVFR fog and stratus. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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