Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250802 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 402 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. BY LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE SOUTHERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY...WAITING ON A PUSH FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDE SCHC/CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WILL END AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME...MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THE BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED CIRRUS CONTINUE TO COVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS HAS PUT A BIT OF A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO FOG/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL AROUND SUN UP. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN JUST A BIT OF LOCAL MVFR FOG AROUND KZZV ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. FRIES OUTLOOK.../MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS WED...HOWEVER AS OF NOW THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .EQUIPMENT... WHEELING ASOS IS OUT OF SERVICE WHICH HAS AN EFFECT ON THE DAILY CLIMATE. NO ETA ON WHEN IT WILL RETURN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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