Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250519 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS TOTAL COLUMN MOMENTUM STARTS TO EBB A BIT. SOUNDINGS STILL REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...A FEW GUSTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...SAID DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. SKIES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TREMENDOUSLY TO ACCOMMODATE SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS EXPECTED DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CWA. CONTINUE STRONG MIXING ALONG WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT MORE THAN WOULD BE NORMAL UNDER COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...HIGHS SEEM POISED TO TAKE A RUN AT NORMAL LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING. FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT. TAX && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. FRIES OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041. && $$

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