Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 072320 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 720 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER ITS ARRIVAL INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WOULD BE AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE WATCH BOX. WITH LITTLE IMPENDING DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WATCH...IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF IT. SOME LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OHIO AS ACTIVITY MOVES FROM NEAR COLUMBUS INTO EASTERN OHIO...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF SAID CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. FRIES PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR LATE TONIGHT ON TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS...APPROACHING THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY...WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...OVERALL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. IF ANY STORMS DO MANAGE TO TRAIN AND TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATION ALONG THE FRONT...THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. WITH COLD POOL REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ELSEWHERE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT AND ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY...BUT DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST THREE DAYS OUT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY THE SFC HIGH GETS FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD BEGIN TO POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGES. THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE AREA OVER NEXT SAT. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW TO HANDLE THE WAVE PASSAGE. ECMWF PHASES TWO WAVES ULTIMATELY AMPLIFYING BROAD UPPER TROF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS DOUBLED DOWN ON PASSING A LEADING WAVE QUICKLY THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW. FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF...BUT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST 6 AND 7 DAYS OUT...DECIDED TO TAKE A LESS THAN DETERMINISTIC APPROACH TO POPS. TAX && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER MOST SITES HAS WANED...HOWEVER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE AREA NEAR KZZV WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TS GENERALLY BETWEEN KZZV AND KHLG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TODAY AT SOME SITES WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR STRATUS AND VIS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATION IFR LIKELY IN KFKL AND KDUJ WHERE MUCH MORE RAINFALL OCCURRED. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TIMING AT THE MOMENT. FRIES .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN ADVNG DISTURBANCE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.