Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170108 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 908 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain is likely with a cold front Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will stay warm through the seven day forecast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A quasi-stationary boundary continues to linger near the I-70 corridor in Ohio and slinks southward toward the I-68 corridor east of Morgantown. Weak low-level convergence along this boundary along with some instability and higher dewpoints to its south has managed to muster a few showers along it, particularly in Ohio. Given we are now past our diurnal heating maximum, and there has been no thunder to this point, it would seem thunder development is unlikely at this point. This front will start to wander northward in Ohio over the next few hours, which will bring the slight chance of showers northward just a few counties before they dissipate overnight. High clouds look to increase toward morning ahead of the next system to affect the area. This should keep fog coverage down a bit, however the return of southerly flow by morning should start an increase in dewpoints, as well. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As the warm front moves north across the forecast area Thursday, it will touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms. More widespread rain will arrive by late afternoon into the evening hours. Our Ohio counties are in a marginal risk for severe weather, with there still being some uncertainty as to the particular timing of the storms and how that might contribute to instability. Considering high resolution model depictions of the line are still showing broken coverage of thunderstorms, did not have enough confidence to bump up pops to categorical. Scattered showers will continue on Friday in advance of the cold front itself moving through the region. Weather will dry out Friday night, but another wave could possibly set off some isolated showers on Saturday with colder air working its way across Lake Erie. Magnitude of cold air at 850mb might not be enough to produce actual lake effect showers, but should at least provide partly to mostly cloudy skies. The frontal passage should bring temperatures back towards normal values. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad high pressure will build across the region for the end of the weekend into the beginning of the work week. A cold front should then bring a chance of rain back to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near average, building into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid/high clouds should increase overnight ahead of an approaching warm front, which should limit the fog potential except for FKL/DUJ where clear skies should hold until late tonight. Low pressure is expected to track across the upper Great Lakes rgn Thu as the warm front lifts N across our area. This should result in scattered showers initially, with sct thunderstorms expected with building instability through the afternoon. Included a VCTS mention by mid aftn for most ports. Better shortwave support Thu eve should result in more widespread showers/storms. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Fri morning as the low`s cold front crosses. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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