Area Forecast Discussion
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033 FXUS61 KPBZ 190547 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1247 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Only minor changes to the overnight period. Have adjusted PoPs over the south with the scattered light showers that have developed with the passing shortwave trough. Expect showers to remain suppressed to the far south where the lift and deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures have been modified with a blend of hires guidance. Expect some morning clouds across a good portion of the area, as a period of weak cold air advection swings through behind the exiting shortwave trough. Most of the clouds will decay by the afternoon, with the exception of the southeastern ridges, where models are showing low-level moisture getting trapped under a strengthening inversion. It appears this inversion will erode by late afternoon over the highest elevations. With the cloud cover and weak cold air advection, temperatures will not be as warm as Saturday but will still be well above normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Tuesday morning. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night. With such a strong ridge in place over the east, have slowed the onset of showers from previous forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the central Plains by the end of period. Looks like a return to more normal temperatures by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak system will continue to shear off to the east generally to the south of the region overnight tonight. Guidance is generally very aggressive building in stratocumulus from the south overnight, however given poor boundary layer dewpoint initializations on the model guidance, it would seem they are overplaying low level moisture available to generate stratus. That said, some pooling of moisture is present to the west of the ridges and will likely work northward overnight through MGW, allowing for some MVFR CIGs as it moves north. Elsewhere, most locations will have difficulty generating stratocumulus in the guidance, however they will be monitored should anything eventually develop. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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