Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031941 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 241 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLEARING IS WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH SOME BANDED CU POPPING IN THE MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NEXT FRONT...REPRESENTING THE MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS...WILL WORK ACROSS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK BACK IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE MOISTURE BECOMES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THEM. THESE WILL START AS RAIN...WITH A SLOW CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SKIM TO OUR NORTHWEST...PROVIDING MINIMAL LARGE- SCALE SUPPORT. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN WNW WITH TIME...SO ONLY A MODEST UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS FORESEEN. KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE NORTH AND EAST OF PIT...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE MOSTLY UNTAPPED...AND LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORESEEN. ACTIVITY DROPS OFF AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE RATE OF COLD ADVECTION SLOWS AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF. CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND THUS DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH. CL && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WHILE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD THURSDAY EVENING...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH A CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS INCLUDED IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...AND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RAIN HAS PULLED EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING WITH TIME. CL .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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