Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190816 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 416 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the morning as a cold front moves through. Less humid and cooler weather is forecast for much of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Front will finally be south of the area by early afternoon, but another shortwave digging through the main upper trough may support the re-development of scattered showers/storms this afternoon behind the surface boundary.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With a general west/northwest flow through the period, precipitation chances will be predicated on the timing and location of shortwaves that swing through the progressive flow. Models still finding it hard to come to a consensus on the timing of these waves, but we may see a break on Tuesday, as weak ridging aloft develops ahead of the next shortwave trough. This forecast is shadowed by low confidence, as the Tuesday night shortwave is following a different path, depending on which model is observed. The NAM wants to develop a surface reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity across the area. Height rises and surface high pressure could provide a generally dry forecast on Wednesday, but this too will be dependent on what Tuesday night`s shortwave does. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The progressive flow will make any long term forecast difficult. After a continued break from the humidity on Thursday, models are indicating an increase in moisture by the end of the week and into the weekend. This will mean the risk for showers and storms return, for at least Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Additional showers and storms will move through the region through the morning as a cold front completes passage. A deterioration to MVFR, with iso IFR is expected until the front clears to the south. A slow improvement to VFR is anticipated behind the boundary, from north to south, although a popup storm is possible during the afternoon. .Outlook... Brief restrictions are possible through mid week as an upper trough slides over the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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