Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 132006 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 306 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered snow showers will end tonight. High pressure will maintain dry but cold temperature for the rest of the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Scattered snow showers will be possible downwind of a lake- enhanced snow band in eastern Ohio through early evening. Saturation depth is rather shallow at this point, and with more than half of Lake Erie still ice covered, not expecting more than a light accumulation from any snow that reaches our Ohio counties. Did however, prolong low chance PoPs over these areas to account for what is being seen in observations and radar at this time. Building surface ridge should bring an end to any residual snow showers and flurries tonight. Core of coldest air will remain in place overnight, with low temperatures falling into the single digits, especially if skies clear out. While the wind should be diminishing tonight, any light wind may bring wind chill indices to -5 to -10 below, especially in the terrain. As such, a wind chill advisory was issued.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Upper trough will remain in place but a wind shift to the southwest should actually support some moderation in temperature through the beginning of the week. This may lag just enough to keep high temperatures close to today`s values on Sunday despite insolation. Next system to bring the chance for snow will come on Monday. Models are handling the timing of this low pressure system, as it drops across the northern great Lakes, well. This justifies likely PoPs for much of the region through Monday night. Did not get into specifics on snow amounts as of yet but it does appear that a quick 1-3 is possible, with good saturation in the dendritic snow growth zones for several hours. Behind this system, cold will continue, with scattered showers possible in northwest flow. Temperatures will continue to run below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Upper trough will remain in place through much of the period, with more zonal flow expected by the end of the week, returning seasonable or slightly warmer values. Stayed close to the superblend for PoPs through this time frame, with no large systems expected.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Steady snow has moved off, and some flurries/generally light snow showers remain across the area. Ceilings will remain low VFR/high MVFR through the afternoon. Clouds will decrease tonight as drier air moves in, and VFR conditions will continue through Sunday. Gusty northwest winds of up to 25 knots will diminish to around 10 knots during the evening. .OUTLOOK... The next chance of widespread restrictions will arrive on Monday with another round of snow. && .HYDROLOGY...
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The Allegheny and Monongahela rivers are cresting, with this expected to occur further downstream this evening and overnight for the Ohio. Ice jams continue to remain a concern, as flows remain high through the weekend. The point at Pittsburgh will remain near flood stage through the afternoon, with some uncertainty as a result of ice jams downstream. Elsewhere, have allowed the areal flood warnings to expire, save for the area around Zelienople for the Conoquenessing. Some minor flooding continues due ice along the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio near the point, which lead to backwater flooding at smaller streams. Have replaced the areal flood warning an areal flood advisory to account for this.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for PAZ009-016-023-074-076. WV...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for WVZ512>514.
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&& $$

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