Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251518 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1018 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE WEEK DRIER. WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SCATTERED ECHOES REMAIN ON EVIDENT ON RADAR...ALTHOUGH SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS MOISTURE ERODES. 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH H7 TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY STRIPPED AWAY AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DRIZZLE MIX IN WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS HAVE STAGNATED IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL TO READINGS NEAR FREEZING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE MOISTURE COMPLETELY DRIES UP. HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP WILL BE QUICK TO DISSIPATE REMAINING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WEST TO EAST. WITH WAA IN FULL SWING THROUGH FRI MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FRI HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVG. TAX && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ERN CONUS HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BRING DRY WEA INTO SAT. THE NXT SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A SAT NGT/SUN PASSAGE. TRENDED POPS UPWD...BUT MAINTAINED HIGH CHC AS TIMING AND AMT OF AVAIL MSTR RMNS IN QN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH A MIX OR CHG OVR TO SNW COULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A STEEPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT. AS && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT...BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE DAY BEFORE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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