Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150712 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 312 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Shower areas today will give way to a dry and warm Wednesday. Rain is likely with a Thursday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No major changes were needed for the morning update as another shortwave is generating some showers over the I 68 corridor. Meanwhile, dynamics associated with a shortwave digging eastward across the Great Lakes on Tuesday may clip the I 80 corridor this afternoon. Have thus maintained some minimal POPs over northern, and ridge zones for passage of that feature as per favorable afternoon timing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rising heights via overall shortwave ridging support a dry and warmer Wednesday forecast. Isolated/slight POPs were maintained for late Wednesday night as a warm front will be surging northward in response to deepening low pressure over the Upper MS Valley. That low is projected to stay well north, but the associated frontal system is likely to spawn showers and storms on Thursday. Seasonably warm temperature under the midweek shortwave will be moderated back toward the average with passage of the Thursday front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Rain chances are progged to diminish under a slowly progressing upper trough this weekend. Near average temperature is forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mid-High clouds will persist this morning with the passage of yet another shortwave. Shower coverage should remain generally south and east of most terminals but will keep VCSH mention at MGW. Some MVFR cigs are expected here and also north near DUJ. Fog should generally be limited with the expansive cloud cover, but will keep MVFR mention at the usual spots. Shortwave trough digs across the region on Tuesday, which could lead to an isolated showers/storm near I-80 corridor. Will leave mention out of terminals with low confidence, for now. .Outlook... Localized early mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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