Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242039 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 439 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Another day of dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected on Sunday before a cold front brings rain and scattered thunderstorms on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Dry air is rapidly moving into the area this afternoon behind a cold front that has now slipped south of the Mason-Dixon line. Dewpoints have already fallen off into the 40s across the majority of the area north of Pittsburgh with values near 40F encroaching upon the northern fringe of the area. These drier values will continue to surge southward this evening as surface high pressure settles into the New York/Pennsylvania border area. This should keep subsidence over the area with surface flow trending off overnight toward morning. As such, a few of the lower spots in Forest County as well as possibly Garrett County may manage to see some frost depending upon how much the wind backs off overnight. Coverage does not seem to be anywhere near enough to contemplate an advisory, however inclusion of the possibility in the grids seems to be prudent. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold front that will cross the region Monday afternoon. Continued to inch pops up in the forecast. Depending on the exact timing that the front comes through, cannot rule out the potential for some strong thunderstorms considering the respectable wind shear and instability that could be present. The bulk of the rainfall should be through the area after Monday evening, with a reinforcing shot of cold air arriving Monday night into Tuesday. Although warm advection will bring warmer temperatures on Monday, the coldest high temperatures of the season so far are forecast on Tuesday. Widespread highs in the 60s are expected, and isolated locations could remain in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Both the 00Z and 12Z runs of the ECMWF kept a trough across the eastern United States throughout the forecast period, which was anoutlier solution compared to the GFS, Canadian, and ensemblessolutions, and was not used for this part of the forecast. As anupper trough moves across the region Wednesday and Thursday, cloudcover will remain across the area. Although the wind direction isstill a bit uncertain those two days, lake effect rain showers willbe possible while northwest flow develops off Lake Erie. By Fridaywinds will develop an easterly component, which will allow sunnyskies to return. Slightly below normal temperatures are expectedthrough the period.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Subsidence and dry advection with building high pressure will erode residual stratocu as the afternoon progresses. General VFR can then be expected through Sunday with exception for peri-dawn fog at southern terminals where boundary layer moisture is more likely to pool and favorably hydrolapse in the wake of the front. North wind will gradually acquire an easterly component, but remain light as the surface high settles toward the area. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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