Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271933 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 333 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm with increasing humidity through the weekend. low pressure moving toward the region will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances later thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Isolated showers have developed near the weak boundary near or just south of Interstate 70 with peak afternoon heating. Will keep isolated wording for showers or storms into early evening this region. Otherwise dry overnight with temperatures near 5 degrees above the seasonal average. On Thursday models agree that a shortwave will ride east along the stalled boundary, with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as the afternoon progresses. Best upward omega is progged toward the southeast ridges where highest pops were forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Model differences continue with where highest QPF will reside with shortwave moving east Thursday night into Friday. Dew points will be on the rise, with deep moisture also being pulled into areas south and east of Pittsburgh as boundary moves north. Used adjusted RFC QPF for the most part, with heaviest rainfall potential suppressed south and east of the ridges for now. This will need to be evaluated with time, as rainfall and rainfall rates may bring the need for a flash flood watch over the southeast. For now with uncertainty and any event looking to be well into tomorrow night, did not want to handcuff later shifts with a watch. System will slowly exit Friday decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region. Weak upper level trough with multiple shortwaves crossing the region will keep shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday with humid conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through much of tonight with high pressure over most of the area. Patchy MVFR fog is expected near dawn Thursday, mainly near a stalled surface boundary south of I 70 where more favorable low level moisture is progged. This should mix out after dawn, though MVFR CU ceilings are expected in this same area thereafter. Approaching low pressure should result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday south of I 80, though much of the precip should be after the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.