Area Forecast Discussion
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302 FXUS61 KPBZ 210209 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 909 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mild temperatures will continue into early next week, with some chances of light rain. The next frontal boundary will cross Monday night with more widespread rain expected. Cooler temperatures return for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Low clouds are finally starting to edge eastward into the eastern half of Ohio toward the northern panhandle of West Virginia. This is commiserate with an increase in low level moisture and surface dewpoints based upon observations and supported by the GOES-16 RGB cloud microphysics fields. Based upon a bit of a lag to further moisten after cloud-up, precipitation chances were held back a few more hours with drizzle being the likely candidate based upon model soundings. Still some question as to whether temperatures can drop enough to allow for freezing rain/drizzle for a period across the far northeast CWA late tonight. Model soundings indicate that the surface wet bulb values should remain at or above freezing for the most part, and with the column remaining stirred, do not foresee a big temperature dropoff this evening despite the lingering snowpack. Will leave out freezing mention for now, but will alert following shift to monitor trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Chances of light rain or drizzle will remain for Sunday and Sunday night as southwest flow continues to bring slow lift and moisture increase. Temperatures will tick up a degree or two as compared to yesterday. Snow melt will continue, especially with dewpoints climbing above 32 degrees, helping to keep any non-ice jam flooding concerns at bay for the upcoming weather system. Warm advection continues to ramp up Monday as a stacked low pressure system crosses the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will reach at least the 50 degree mark CWA-wide, with some 60+ plus readings south of Pittsburgh. This will finish off the snow pack. A relative minimum of light rain activity will be seen during the day as the warm sector strengthens. The low will cross the Great Lakes Monday night and early Tuesday, pushing a well-advertised cold front across the region. PoPs were upped further into the categorical range given good model consensus. The progressive nature of the system plus the relatively narrow moisture plume still point to relatively subdued QPF of around a half inch with this system. Again, this will limit general flooding concerns. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... More seasonable temperatures will flow into the region behind the front, with rain showers changing over to snow showers Tuesday afternoon and evening. Any accumulation is expected to be minor at this distance. Showers taper off by Wednesday night, and high pressure provides dry weather Thursday and Friday, with another warming trend towards above normal temperatures. Rain chances may return by the end of the extended as a trough emerges from the Plains. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Latest satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming through the area, however, stratus is looming across southern and central Ohio. Updated hi-res models seem to have a good handle on speed and timing, bringing these into the ZZV area just after 00z and developing northeastward through 06z. MVFR is expected (with occasional IFR) until reinforcement of shallow moisture arrives within a few hours of dawn. IFR restrictions will be present for nearly the rest of the TAF period with only marginal improvement Sunday afternoon. SSW wind through the night with some weakening expected as the inversion aloft strengthens. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential continues for the first half of the week with the approach and passage of a frontal system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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