Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200120 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 920 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER SHOWERS END TONIGHT...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. DZ/LIGHT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE ACROSS. AFTER 06Z OR SO THIS PROCESS SHOULD SLOW DOWN. BY LATE TONIGHT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ISOLATED SHRA AND DZ AT MOST. TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...BUT LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE WAY OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO SUPPORT LIFT...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE. THUS...MAINTAINED LOW END CHANCE VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THAT EXPANSION IS FORECAST TO BE HALTED VIA SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING OVR THE LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG CDFNT ACRS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND DROP TEMPS BACK UNDR THE AVGS. GIVEN THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS...HAVE USED TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH REPRESENTS A MDL BLEND. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AS RIPPLES ROTATE THROUGH IN THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT...FIRST FROM THE RAIN...AND THEN FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE SHORTWAVE PARADE AND A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z OR SO AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES A BIT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY STILL FORM IN THE DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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