Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011822 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 222 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED. THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT. TAX
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH- CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAX .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.