Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131820 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 120 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation will taper today as low pressure departs. Dry and cool conditions are then expected under high pressure until the next disturbance crosses by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made some minor changes to the grids for the rest of the day as the mid-level wave departs. Elected to add some sprinkles on the back side as moisture and instability lingers in a very shallow near-surface layer through the afternoon. This may be more of a drizzle eventually, especially along the ridges, and will monitor. Highs are expected to be around 10 degrees below average. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Low level moisture should continue to result in cloudy skies before gradual clearing Tuesday as the surface high builds overhead. The high should maintain dry weather through Tuesday night as it slides east. The next shortwave trough and associated cold front is progged to advance out of the Upper Midwest Wednesday, reaching the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley regions late Wednesday with shower chances returning. Included a period of likely POPs with FROPA with sufficient moisture and upper support progged. A few rain or possibly snow showers are possible later Wednesday night as the upper trough axis crosses, though these should not be significant. Other than near average temperatures Wednesday, readings are expected to be around 10 degrees below seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather should return by Thursday afternoon under building ridging. A trough is progged to rapidly advance from the Western CONUS before deepening over the Eastern CONUS by the weekend. Rain chances should increase late Friday/Saturday with its approach. Cold temperatures and snow shower chances are expected to return later Saturday through early next week under the persistent trough. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MVFR conditions will prevail through much of the period, as low level moisture remains under a strengthening subsidence inversion in northwest flow. Some lowering of the cloud deck is expected overnight but generally think conditions will stay above IFR, save for maybe a few spots. Patchy drizzle may also be possible, mainly at LBE for a time tonight. Surface ridge will build overhead tomorrow, with some improvement to VFR expected by afternoon. Wind will stay out of the nw and under 10kts through the period. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a late Wed/early Thurs cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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