Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220506 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING OF FROPA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. .OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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