Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251748 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 148 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving low pressure will keep rain in the forecast through early Friday. Rain chances return for part of the weekend with another area of low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made some mainly cosmetic changes to the forecast for the afternoon. Deep moisture and lift providing showers this morning will lift north of the region by early afternoon. Some breaks in the cloud cover will help to steepen low-level lapse rates, allowing scattered to numerous showers to develop during peak heating. There will be enough instability for isolated thunderstorms. In line with SPC outlook, any isolated severe risk will be mainly limited to areas along the ridges, along the edge of more favorable but fading deep level shear. Slightly lowered max temperatures, but not as low as LAMP guidance given breaks in the clouds could still allow values to pop into at least the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another area of ascent and deep layer moisture is progged to track across the region tonight as the low begins to drift E of the area, with increasing POPs for showers. A few showers could continue through Fri morning until the low exits the E coast and shortwave ridging builds in. The next approaching shortwave and surface warm front is progged for Fri night/Sat as surface low pressure tracks NE from the Srn Plains, resulting in shower chances increasing. Model progged instability is sufficient S of I 80 for thunderstorm chances also. The low is progged to track across the lower Great Lakes Sunday, dragging a cold front across the region. Maintained likely POPs for showers/tstms with it`s approach and passage. After below average readings Friday, temperatures should return to near or above average levels by the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper troughing is progged across the NE CONUS through most of the period. Individual shortwaves rotating through the trough should maintain periodic shower chances, with the Memorial Day holiday progged to see the least activity at this time. Temperatures should average within a few degrees of the seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper low continues to sit and spin across eastern Ohio. A wave of showers has moved through the forecast area this morning, and will rotate through the area once again this evening into the early morning hours. Some scattered showers will remain in between the waves, and cannot rule out a chance of an isolated thunderstorm, although confidence/coverage is low. In between the waves, many locations from Pittsburgh to the south and east should have at least a few hours of VFR ceilings, although ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ are expected to remain close enough to the bands of steadier rainfall for ceilings to remain IFR/MVFR. All terminals will drop to IFR, if not LIFR ceilings overnight in steadier rain, and low clouds will continue well into Friday. .Outlook... Showers continue through much of the period with episodic restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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