Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211620 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN UPDATE AS INSOLATION AND LGT WIND SPPRT A TEMP INCRS WELL INTO THE 70S. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS DURING THE MRNG. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED SHWR WORDING ONLY. COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT QUICK MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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