Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200125 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 925 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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930pm update...no major changes from previous update. Decided to add the mention of strong wind gusts, as beginning to see strong winds to the northwest as the line of storms moves through. Previous discussion... Shower activity will increase in coverage this evening as models have been consistent depicting a line of showers/thunderstorms this evening along surface boundary crossing the region from the NW to SE....followed by a MCV which is progged to cross the region later in the evening to several hours after midnight. Instability is expected to be minimal but there is potential for strong wind gusts with storms. Overnight lows will be mild with cloud cover and continued WAA ahead of the approaching cold front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers and Thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday mainly during the afternoon and evening once/if convective temperatures are achieved which now look to be in the upper 70s. Activity during the day will be largely dependent on instability. Any decent breaks in cloud coverage should be sufficient. The main threat is the potential for strong winds associated with any storms that have a strong enough updraft to push cores above drier air progged to be around 20-25kft. Update the HWO to mention slight risk of damaging winds for western zones. With near 99 percentile PWAT values by that time will need to keep an eye on rain rates. A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms. The SPC marginal outlook still appears reasonable at this time. Temperatures will return to seasonal levels by Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A trough from the NE CONUS to the Plains should keep rain chances and cool temps across the area over the weekend as it approaches and crosses the region, and as a surface low tracks to our south. Building ridging should return dry and warmer weather by early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Disturbance crossing the area tonight will bring showers and thunderstorms, especially from HLG on north. MVFR to occasional IFR visibilities can be expected, and cannot rule out LIFR if a heavy cell passes over a terminal. Brief wind gusts to 40 knots will be possible with the strongest storms. MVFR/IFR ceilings will linger behind this activity later tonight, with the greatest restrictions north of PIT. Slow ceiling improvement is expected after sunrise. More storms may begin to develop after 18Z but did not include at this time, with most activity expected after 00Z. .Outlook... Restrictions will be possible into Thursday night with low pressure and a cold front. Widespread restrictions are possible Saturday and Sunday with strong low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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