Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231317 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 917 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Sunshine and moderating temperatures today. Rain chances return this weekend with a continued warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As the surface high moves toward the Chesapeake Bay today, warm advection will take over. This will allow for temperatures to rebound toward more seasonal levels. Plenty of sunshine today as a very dry atmosphere remains in place. May be some passing cirrus this afternoon, but any real cloud increase will hold off until the evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models are continuing the trend of pushing the deep moisture, large scale ascension and measurable precipitation further north. In addition to the shift northward, precipitation onset is slowing. This is all in response to a slowly strengthening ridge over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight. This is allowing for a rapidly warming atmosphere, and in turn a drier and more stable atmosphere. As heights rise tonight, most, if not all, of the shortwave energy will be shoved northward toward the Great Lakes. Because of this, have shifted PoP coverage northward tonight and removed the mention of freezing rain. Main shortwave will pass quickly to the east Friday morning and the warm advection and rising upper level heights will continue. Any linger showers will quickly end during the morning. The push northward of the eastern ridge will also shove the warm front further to the north, engulfing the entire area in the expanding warm sector. This will help to keep the rest of Friday dry and temperatures above normal. With the possible exception of the far north, Saturday looks dry as well. Plenty of subsidence with the eastern ridge firmly in place and any upper level waves will be shoved well to the north of the area. There will be additional cloud cover Saturday, as the atmosphere slowly becomes more saturated. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper low, ejecting from the Plains into the Great Lakes, will push a front our way on Sunday with good rain chances. The front may linger near the area Sunday night, with some showers, before another low threatens to bring better rain chances Tuesday. Dry weather and high pressure is expected by the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures throughout the long term. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Building high pressure will ensure VFR and light wind through today. A crossing shortwave in conjunction with a warm front may generate some light rain for FKL and DUJ in the post 06z period of Friday. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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