Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151347 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 847 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather through part of today. Rain is expected to return with a late in the day and this evening with a cold front. A few rain or snow showers are possible with a Thursday disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Quick update to tighten up afternoon PoP gradient per trends/hi-res models, and some minor temperature tweaks. Forecast largely on track. Previous discussion... High pressure should maintain dry weather part of the day, though clouds should increase ahead of the next approaching shortwave. The wave and and associated cold front are progged to cross the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley area late this afternoon and evening, returning showers to the area. Maintained a mention of categorical POPs with FROPA with sufficient moisture and upper support expected. After the initial wave and cold front exit, an upper trough is progged to approach the area late tonight, maintaining rain and possible snow shower chances. Near seasonal average temperatures are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough is expected to cross the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley regions Thursday. Maintained rain and snow shower chances, with the highest POPs confined N of I 80 where some limited lake enhancement is possible. Temperatures are expected to be too warm for any snow accumulation. Building high pressure behind the exiting trough should return dry and cooler than average weather for Thursday night and Friday. Low pressure is progged to track to the Great Lakes Friday night ahead of a digging upper trough across the Plains. The low`s associated warm front is expected to return rain and warming temperatures to the area Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The digging trough is expected to continue tracking to the Eastern CONUS through the weekend. Rain should continue Saturday as the surface low continues it`s track through the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the region. Cold NW flow, along with passage of a shortwave rotating through the main trough should result snow shower chances Sunday. The best chances are expected N of I 80 and in the ridges where upslope/lake enhancement is more likely. Building high pressure should return dry but cool weather for Mon before another weak trough results in minimal precip chances Tue. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure should maintain VFR conditions through most of the day. Deterioration to MVFR, and eventual IFR, is expected in showers with the approach and passage of a cold front late this afternoon and tonight. MVFR should persist through the end of the TAF period under upper troughing. .Outlook... Restrictions should continue with upper troughing and cold NW flow Thu. Restrictions are likely again with a Sat cold front and with Sun upper troughing and cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.