Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140512 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1212 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A wintry mix of precipitation will be possible both Saturday and Sunday night into Monday morning. Warm weather will return thereafter.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No major changes were needed for the midnight update as precip has remained well south of the I 70 corridor thus far - Tucker County will have the best chance for precip through the predawn hours. Radars to the west do indicate some light precip development along I 70, so the forecast trend and advisory for freezing rain was maintained, although the better chance for measurable precip for the remainder of the advisory areas will come after daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Passage of the shortwave on Saturday eve will diminish any precip and pull the front southward again. Temperature very near the average is again anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday as surface high pressure settles over the region under zonal flow aloft. A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. Warmer weather under the resulting rising heights over the Upper Ohio Region may be preceded by some additional freezing rain in the predawn of Monday over areas along and south of I 70, but model trends with that scenario have been southward, so have retreated from any "hazard" mention.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Warmer weather is then expected to dominate once again until the trough ejects and drags a front toward the area late in the period. Superblend guidance represented this scenario well and was deviated from only in POP timing.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions should deteriorate to MVFR from PIT south this morning and afternoon as a shortwave crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region results in a wintry mix of precip. Eventual IFR is likely S of I 70 by afternoon where more precip is expected. Conditions should improve later this evening as the shortwave and precip exit and surface high pressure begins to build. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are possible S of PIT Sunday night with a crossing warm front, and likely areawide Tue/Wed with the approach and passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR MDZ001. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR OHZ057>059-068-069. PA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR PAZ031-075. Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR WVZ004-012-021-509. Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR WVZ510>514.
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&& $$ 15/07

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