Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241113 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 713 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperature for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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No major changes were needed for the dawn update as the cold front is completing passage across the Upper Ohio Region. Subsidence and dry advection with building high pressure will erode clouds as the morning progresses. Seasonal temperature can be expected for the remainder of the weekend.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deepening Low pressure moving into the upper Great lakes will sweep a cold front across the region Monday, with models now relatively close on timing the front east of the ridges by Monday evening. Have bumped up POPs to likely with the fropa considering the strong dynamics with the front, although QPF will be on the lighter side as moisture will be limited. Precip will end in the ridges later Monday evening, with much cooler air working into the region Tuesday as a closed low aloft shifts east across the lakes. A few showers may develop in the cold advection north of I-80 Tuesday afternoon, but southwest flow on the front of the upper low will keep bulk of lake enhanced showers north of the region. Temperatures will warm into the 70s to near 80 ahead of the front Monday, followed by a sharp cool down into the 60s behind the front Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Large upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes for the start of the period, transitioning eastward and replaced by broad ridging by the end of the week. The best chance for showers will be Wednesday in cold advection/lake enhanced showers as the trough pivots to the east. After Wednesday the deterministic models diverge slightly but ensemble guidance suggests a prolonged dry period with gradual warming to near and above seasonal levels. Have opted to stay close to a blend of guidance, with less emphasis on the ecmwf. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Subsidence and dry advection with building high pressure will erode stratus as the morning progresses. Restrictions, including IFR ceilings, will thus give way to general VFR, which will persist through Sunday. North wind will gradually acquire an easterly component, but remain light as the high surface high settles toward the area. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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