Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 130047 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 747 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A wintry mix of precipitation will give way to snow tonight, and then much colder temperatures for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Changes for the mid eve update were cosmetic POP adjustments. The surface cold front has completed passage across the Upr OH region with all but the ridge zones under freezing. Freezing rain and sleet are expected to continue transitioning to snow before overall precip lightens later tonight. No changes were made to headlines. As for flooding, 2 to 3 inches of rain with the snow melt and ice jams has caused localized flooding. The flood watch for additional flooding will be maintained at least through the evening, while ongoing areal flood warnings will remain in effect through the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The trouble-causing low is progged to depart on Saturday morning, but Arctic cold will funnel over the region and drop temperature well under the averages for the rest of the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A longwave trough pattern will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, which will maintain cold temperature. The next chance of organized snowfall is projected with rapidly moving low pressure that is forecast to generate minor snow accumulation on Monday night. Building high pressure should dry the weather into late week and moderate temperature. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front has just about finished it progression through the area and northwest flow has kicked in. Variable ceilings will continue for a few hours before areawide IFR or worse is achieved. Conditions will continue to deteriorate this evening as remaining rain transitions to a period of freezing rain/sleet and then snow. Snow should be observed areawide by around midnight. Precipitation will begin dissipate from west to east after sunrise. Ceilings will improve to MVFR towards the end of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK... The next chance of widespread restrictions will arrive on Monday with another round of snow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>022-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ023- 031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>512. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ001>003. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ004- 012-021-509>514. && $$

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