Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251023 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST. DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S. RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. CL && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE. CL && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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