Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280947 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 547 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR A 5 DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER LEVELS MIXED HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH DURING THE DAY. WITH THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME)...WHICH IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT FKL/DUJ. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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