Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230556 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 156 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Dry weather will return on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Shortwave, rotating around Mid-Atlantic upper low, will keep in the risk for showers, mainly from Pittsburgh southward, through much of the night. Have updated pops using latest radar trends and hires guidance. Have also updated the sky grids, as clouds will be on the decrease from the north to south. Expect fog to develop as well. Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Models continue to show shortwaves rotating around the low, which will necessitate the inclusion of pops over the eastern half of the area. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located. Atmosphere destabilization looks like a good bet this afternoon, so have continued with the mention of thunder. Expect to see a wide range of temperatures today, from the cool and wet east to the dry and sunny west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will build in tonight, behind the exiting upper low. Any showers over the east, will be ending and skies will clear. With strengthening ridge and eastward moving surface high, area finally will see a dry day Tuesday with warmer temperatures. Next slow moving system will bring the risk for showers back into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday as well.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The remaining rain areas should diminish as the morning, and supporting shortwave energy progress. Areas of IFR, with fog and stratus, are expected at where rainfall occurred. Building high pressure will ensure the return of VFR after daybreak. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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