Area Forecast Discussion
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332 FXUS61 KPBZ 210106 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 906 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... After low chances of rain Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will bring widespread rain to the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The late eve update featured further, albeit minor, adjustments to overnight precip probs based on the latest RAP, HRRR/consensus- short and upstream radar trends. A shortwave/weak cold-reinforcing front is timed to complete passage across the Great Lakes and encroach on the immediate area later tonight. Although current radar coverage over the Lakes is widespread, the vorticity center is expected to rotate into the eastern flank of the parent low just east of the Hudson Bay, thus resulting in decreased downstream coverage as upper support weakens. At any rate, slight to chance POPs for showers were maintained but with quicker onset time. These were spread southward toward the I 70 corridor on Wednesday, with diminishment in the wake of the disturbance late in the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The unsettled pattern continues into Thursday with a shortwave moving across the area. Again, stuck with low chance pops, primarily across northern counties. The most active weather period for the week still appears to occur Friday into Friday night. Models are in good agreement that another cold front will enter the region from the west. At the same time, Tropical Storm Cindy will continue its path from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mississippi Valley. Still too early to be specific with the interaction of the moisture from the tropical storm with the front, but so far it appears that the bulk of the rainfall will remain south of the forecast area with the front shunting the Cindy remnants to the east. Thursday should be the warmest day of the 7 day forecast, with temperatures about five degrees cooler with the arrival of the front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The chance of showers will linger south and east of Pittsburgh Saturday along the back side of the front, and an additional shortwave could spark showers on Sunday. High pressure should build in for Monday and Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather. Temperatures will remain below normal through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR is expected to be marred only be scattered, high based showers later tonight and Wednesday as a shortwave trough traverses the region. Sfc wind will back from west to south with the approach of that disturbance, then veer to the west with passage on Wednesday afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely Friday with the encroachment of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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