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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291414 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1014 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled but warm weather is expected through the weekend, with a cold front expected for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Late morning update to once again adjust POPs as MCS continues to advance across Ohio. Latest mesoscale models and 12Z NAM show the area of showers and thunderstorms with the shortwave weakening quickly this afternoon as it runs into the strengthening east coast ridge. It appears rainfall rates are beginning a slow decline on MRMS data, and with speed of system movement, it appears the flood threat will not be widespread. Will continue to monitor. Previous discussion follows. Mid level shortwave is currently exiting the southeast ridges with showers diminishing west to east mid morning. Next shortwave with MCS moving into southwest Ohio will arrive for the afternoon. Have adjusted POPs to try and place a small window of mainly dry conditions mid morning into early afternoon, but timing will be an issue. For now with lack of low level instability and fast movement of approaching wave, severe or flash flood threat remains low. No changes to temperatures at this time as still expect front to attempt to shift north later today. Tonight as last shortwave exits developing mid level ridge should be able to shunt front farther north, bringing warmer and more humid conditions, and a lesser chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Immediate concern at the beginning of the 12Z TAF period is low level wind shear, with relatively light surface winds around a warm front and strong westerly winds aloft. Latest computer models suggest LLWS should have already come to an end, although observations including VAD wind profile and upper air balloon show these winds are still present. With models not much help in this case, have included LLWS in TAFs other than FKL/DUJ through 15Z, and will reevaluate situation with later observations. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward along a slowly northward moving warm front today. This will mean they will start the day mainly from KPIT southward, then gradually transition northward toward KFKL/KDUJ after a gap through much of the morning. A fairly potent wave should transition down the front early in the afternoon, which will likely allow for the best chance of thunderstorms as it passes most sites during this interlude. As the warm front lifts north of the area Saturday evening, most sites will scatter out, however some stratus may linger around KFKL/KDUJ. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible through Sun in vicinity of a surface front. Restriction are likely with a strong cold front Sunday night and Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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