Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250540 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 140 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE...WITHIN FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL USE MOST OF ITS ENERGY TO BREAK THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...SO HAVE ISOLATED POPS TO THE FAR NORTH. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AND SLOWLY DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IS STILL IN QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...A FEW STRONGER ONES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND DRIFT IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS. THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO... OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVR THE UPR OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL. CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD AGAIN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THAT LOW...HENCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED FOR WEEKS END UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE ENCROACHMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY NIGHT. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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