Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261754 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 154 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the passage of a cold front today.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A late morning update was issued to further adjust precip probabilty based on the latest radar and high res model trends. A deepening trough over the Great Lakes will pull a cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the risk for some marginally severe storms with limitations imposed by warming mid levels/questionable instability, which are offsetting an increasing wind field and resulting deep layer shear. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Temperature advection will be quickly neutralized on Tuesday, with warm advection resuming on the southeastern flank of Great Lakes low pressure. As such, temperatures were forecast near the seasonal averages. The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the Upper Ohio during the mid week period. As models are coming into more consistent depictions, confidence in the forecast of chance/scattered shower weather with sub-average temperature is improving. Few changes were made to the prognosis for this period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned upper low is projected to fill/lift northeastward by next weekend with zonal flow resuming over the Upper Ohio Region. Predominately dry weather is thus forecast with seasonal temperature. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Scattered showers and storms are developing early this afternoon along a pre-frontal trough from near KDUJ-KAGC-KRLX. This boundary and its attendant storms will continue to shift ewd this afternoon and could impact KLBE/KMGW/KDUJ early before a sharp wind shift to nwly. In the wake of the pre-frontal trough passage, wind is expected to back slightly to wswly before a cold-frontal passage later this afternoon/early this evening. Broader coverage of showers will accompany the frontal zone, but these will wane with time as the low levels of the atmosphere dry in the post-frontal regime. MVFR cigs will be increasingly common this afternoon after passage of the pre-frontal trough, with vsby reducing to lifr/vlifr in any tstms that occur along the trough amid heavy rain. In the showers associated with the frontal zone, vsby may drop to 1-2SM in any stronger convective elements, but thunder will be quite limited in scope in this area with rapidly-waning deep instability. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper-level low pressure will settle into the Great Lakes Region through the week. Flight restrictions will be increasingly likely beginning Wednesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kramar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.