Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 232205 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 605 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very humid conditions over the region through Monday with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions are expected through early Thursday before a cold front approaches from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Ascent via the right entrance region of an upper level jet is working with a couple of convergent low level regions to allow for convective development this evening. One of these is sagging southeastward from NW Ohio, and a second one is developing in what was actually a far less conducive area from central Ohio to northern WV. The second area is of particular importance this evening as a mesolow has shown its hand in eastern OH and adding additional impetus for ascent and convective development. It now seems quite likely that convection will overspread the southern half of the area over the next few hours, generally in line with the HRRR projections. Due to the trajectory of the storms, it would seem flooding may be a greater threat than severe weather at this time, and this will be monitored going forward. The strongest instability is still present over the northern reaches of the CWA, however satellite imagery indicates cumulus is really having difficulty getting going in our area even as it develops readily farther north. Additionally, convective blow off has overspread the area, minimizing late afternoon heating, and thus lessening instability a touch. That said, some additional development does seem likely here, and likely PoPs were maintained for later this evening. The activity over NW Ohio should also make its way southeastward toward our area, however given previous activity over the area, it will again just be a rainfall threat. That said, likely PoPs were maintained through the post-midnight hours. Behind the final line of convection, some nominal clearing seems possible overnight given a fall off in layer RH values. Should that occur, fog development will be almost a foregone conclusion. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs. Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface high will build into the Great Lakes. This will finally bring a stretch of dry weather and sunshine for Tues/Wed.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A deep upper trough and associated surface cold front will settle south from Ontario on Thursday, bringing the threat for showers/storms during the afternoon and evening. Forecast for Friday into the weekend gets a bit muddy. If the aforementioned wave progresses into the Southeast, then the weekend is shaping up to be spectacular with dry conditions and highs around 80. Some model solutions open the upper wave up across the Appalachians keeping the threat for clouds and precipitation (especially over the eastern ridges) into Friday and perhaps Saturday. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cigs will continue to improve through the remainder of the afternoon, with VFR expected to prevail, outside of any thunderstorm. Morning cloud cover may have limited instability initially but with clouds beginning to scatter out, coverage should increase, as is progged by the hi res model guidance this evening. Will keep the VCTS mention through tonight as the upper level shortwave digs across the great lakes. Deterioration back to MVFR and possibly IFR is expected, with the late showers/storms with some improvement by early Monday as the frontal boundary finally starts to sag southward across the forecast area, some additional thunderstorm activity is anticipated this evening. Kept VCTS in there with the .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing thereafter. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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