Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280543 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 143 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Crossing low pressure will return areawide rain for Sunday and early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... No changes were needed for the late eve update. Previous... The early eve update featured a precip prob reduction for areas south of I 70 as per exiting shortwave support and southward positioning of the sfc front. Shortwave ridging will maintain dry weather overnight, but with seasonably warm temperature. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Another shortwave emerging from the base of Northern Plains low pressure is forecast to quickly return rain to the region on Sunday. SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms with that scenario, but instability and deep layer shear remain questionable do no hazard mention will be included. Despite a rich moisture feed, any flood issues look to be local at best and confined to poor drainage areas given system progression. The system cold front is projected across the ridges by daybreak Monday, hence the majority of the days looks dry under briefly building high pressure. Under the subsequent upper troughing pattern, some isolated showers could develop over northern counties Monday night as a shortwave skims the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Periodic shower chances will continue through midweek, as shortwaves rotate through a broad upper trough over the NE CONUS and Great Lakes. Drier weather is figured for Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure travels through the ridge, although rain chances may return for Friday night/Saturday behind the high. Temperatures should average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR to local IFR fog should continue for sites near PIT ewd where skies have temporarily cleared with shortwave ridging. Increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching shortwave should preclude fog elsewhere, though some status is possible across OH ports with increasing low level moisture. Fog/stratus should improve through the morning. The shortwave should cross the area Sunday aftn resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Maintained a shower/VCTS mention until timing can be refined further. After a brief break in the precip after the passage of the wave, and approaching cold front should return the shower/tstms to the area Sunday night. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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