Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191433 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1033 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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After the cold front crosses today, an upper trough will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and cooler conditions through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Line of heavier showers associated with the cold front will make it`s departure east of the ridges around noon today. Behind this boundary, conditions are improving with clouds scattering out and temperatures warming slightly. Thus, have bumped temperatures up a degree or two. Cumulus should increase in coverage this afternoon, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms developing with the passage of an upper level shortwave through the upper trough. Instability should be rather limited, even though there will be a lot of speed shear, so the threat for strong/severe is low.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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With a general westerly flow through the period, precipitation chances will be predicated on the timing and location of shortwaves that swing through the progressive flow. Models still finding it hard to come to a consensus on the timing of these waves, but we may see a break on Tuesday, as weak ridging aloft develops ahead of the next shortwave trough. This forecast is shadowed by low confidence, as the Tuesday night shortwave is following a different path, depending on which model is observed. The NAM wants to develop a surface reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity across the area. Height rises and surface high pressure could provide a generally dry forecast on Wednesday, but this too will be dependent on what Tuesday night`s shortwave does. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The progressive flow will make any long term forecast difficult. After a continued break from the humidity on Thursday, models are indicating an increase in moisture by the end of the week and into the weekend. This will mean the risk for showers and storms return, for at least Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Brief IFR conditions are expected with the batch of showers moving through the region, however MVFR is the dominant category. Conditions improve from west to east after 14Z with VFR returning. It may take until 17Z for DUJ to see cigs above 3K. After a short period of a clear sky, VFR cumulus will develop. Scattered showers are possible this afternoon into early evening /22Z-01Z/. Once the sunset sets look for VFR to return region wide unless an airport experiences a brief shower. .Outlook... Brief restrictions are possible through mid week as an upper trough slides over the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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