Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261129 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 629 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE ONGOING FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TRENDS AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. INCRG SBSDNC UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES WL CONT TO ERODE THE STRATOCU LYR THIS MRNG...OTRW MCLR SKIES ARE EXPD TDA WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL. TEMPS SHOULD AVG ARND 10 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGING AND WRM ADVCTN WL CONT THRU SAT IN ADVN OF AN APCHG SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A SAT NGT/SUN PASSAGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR SHWRS WITH SUFFICIENT MSTR AND UPR SPPRT PROGGED. CONTD PCPN CHCS INTO ERLY MON S OF PIT AS A WAVE DVLPS ALG THE FNT...WHICH COULD SPREAD A LTL MORE PCPN INTO THAT RGN. EXP MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH A BRF CHG OVER TO SNW SHWRS IS PSBL BEFORE PCPN ENDS. ABV SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU THE PD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY BE DRY WITH A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE FLOW DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. FURTHER OUT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY CLOSED OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION...BUT MODELS VARY WIDELY IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BY A MARGIN OF SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...WITH ALL SITES VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BY SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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