Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 202154 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 554 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Some showers will cross the region tonight in advance of a weak cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... An early eve update was issued to adjust pop trends based on the latest radar and high res timing. Have also removed the thunder mention for areas south of Pittsburgh as that potential looks confined to Central and Southern WV as per the instability and moisture advection progs. Otherwise, the rain supporting shortwave will progress ese tonight and the shower potential will fade by morning as the trailing cold front slides over the region. Overnight lows will range from about 5, to 10 degrees above the averages from the I 80 to I 70 corridors respectively. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much of the region will be dry Tuesday with the exception of the ridges in the morning as low level moisture may be slow to exit the area. Another weak shortwave trough forecast by models to cross Tuesday night will be accompanied with very little moisture and lift. Have only slight chance to low chance precip to the far south with this feature as the favorable location within the base of the trough passes south of the CWA. Cool northerly flow Wednesday through early Thursday will drop temperatures to below normal values before ridging and a quick transition to southerly flow begin to help slightly warm temperatures by the end of the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Moisture is progged to increase in response of an upper low stationed over the southern plains. This feature will slowly shift towards the Great Lakes and increasing rain chances with a warm front on Friday followed by the approaching cold front over the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will deteriorate this evening as showers encroach in advance of a weak cold front. Expect MVFR and IFR cigs in the pre dawn hours. Improvement can be expected with mid-Tuesday subsidence and dry advection. Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a reinforcing front Tuesday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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