Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061703 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1203 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather and below-normal temperature are the main themes through Friday, although there are low chances for snow showers Thursday afternoon in the ridges of northern West Virginia. A series of disturbances crossing Saturday will enhance the chances for snow showers. Cold air is expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Previous forecast generally appeared on track, with high pressure, generally-sunny sky and gusty wind expected today. Cloud cover will increase through the remainder of the day as a low-amplitude shortwave trough approaches. Previous discussion follows... Broad upper troughing should continue across the Eastern CONUS today. Clouds should increase this afternoon mainly N of I-70 as a weak wave approaches. Gusty WSW wind should be maintained today by a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Maxima should be near or just below the seasonal average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough is expected to persist across the ern CONUS through the period as it deepens gradually, maintaining unseasonably-cold air and variable cloudiness. The boundary- layer wind should remain wswly-swly, which should preclude lake-enhanced trajectories moving into the forecast area. It is not out of the question that flow could veer sufficiently on Thu to enable snow showers to graze areas north of I-80. A compact shortwave trough is indicated by some models to move across WV on Thu afternoon. Amid a well-mixed boundary layer and modest moisture, meager instability may be available to generate snow showers mainly in nrn WV and far-swrn PA. Low PoPs were introduced Thu afternoon to reflect this possibility. Low-level ridging will dominate on Fri, which will limit cloud cover and concern for precipitation. Cold air will remain in place during this time, offsetting increased insolation.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A broad longwave trough will persist across the ern CONUS for much of the extended period. Shortwave troughs moving through the broad trough will ensure periodic chances for precipitation (likely snow), with the best chance on Saturday as a shortwave trough digs sewd from the nrn Plains states. Temperature is expected to continue at a below-seasonal level for the foreseeable future.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High confidence forecast with VFR the predominate flight category. Scattered cumulus and scattered to broken altocumulus cross during the daylight hours. A period of just cirrus before tonight before stratocu returns midday Thursday. Winds will be the primary impact this afternoon with west southwest winds between 10-15kts and gusts nearing 30kts. Sustain speeds will weaken below the 12kt threshold with sunset. .Outlook... The next chance of widespread restrictions are forecast to arrive Saturday afternoon/evening.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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