Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140429 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1229 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Although most locations will remain dry, a series of disturbances is forecast to cross the region this week and cause some local showers and storms through mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Changes for the overnight period included a fog coverage reduction as mid and upper clouds will be on the increase with the advance of a shortwave in wsw flow aloft. That shortwave may support some weak convection in vicinity of MGW and LBE and points east as per low level moisture convergence into the ridges and a weak inverted surface trough. Have structured POPs for scattered light convection using the latest HRRR and incoming NAM depictions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Dynamics associated with a shortwave digging eastward across the Great Lakes on Tuesday may clip the I 80 corridor as per the latest NAM and GFS depictions. Have thus restructured some minimal POPs over northern, and ridge zones for that scenario as per favorable afternoon timing. Rising heights via overall shortwave ridging support a warmer Wednesday forecast, but an embedded impulse may mar a dry forecast as it traverses the weak boundary anticipated over zones south of I 70. Isolated/slight POPs were maintained overnight as that boundary will be surging northward as a warm front in response to deepening low pressure over the Upper MS Valley. That low is projected to stay well north, but the associated frontal system is likely to spawn showers and storms on Thursday. Overall low amplitude flow will maintain seasonable temperature for the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Periodic rain chances are projected for the long term period as per a series of crossing shortwave troughs. Temperature under this pattern will remain near the seasonal averages.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as sfc high pressure slides E, though late night/early morning MVFR to IFR valley fog is expected to affect a few ports. A weak shortwave tracking NE from the TN valley should bring an increase in clouds Mon, along with shower chances toward MGW. .OUTLOOK... Localized erly mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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