Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131204 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 804 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MORNING SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE REGION TODAY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY ADD SPRINKLES TO EASTERN OHIO AND ADJUST POPS TOWARD CURRENT RADAR. REST SAME. AN APRCHG AMPLIFIED SHRTWV IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS THIS MRNG WITH INITIAL FOCUS BEING THE INVERTED TROF LYING ALNG THE WINDWARD SLOPE OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. SCT...TO NMRS SHWRS SHOULD SPREAD OVR THE RMNDR OF THE AREA...BUT THE DISTURBANCE WL BE A QUICK HITTER AND IS PROJECTED SUFFICIENTLY EWD BY THIS AFTN TO RAPIDLY ELIMINATE POPS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WL REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS...HENCE PROGGED READINGS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGS UNDR THE AVGS WERE MAINTAINED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN MAINTAIN DRY WEA THRU MON...WHILE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD ERN CANADIAN UPR LOW HOLDS THE COLD AIRMASS OVR THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. AN ADVNG SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO SPAWN SHWRS MONDAY NGT AND EARLY TUES. A TEMP FORECAST ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDR THE NORMALS WAS THUS CONTD FOR THE SHORT TERM PD WITH TWEAKS COMPLETED USING GFS BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND SREF MEANS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS THEN FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE RMNDR OF THE LONG TERM PD. LONG TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH OCNL IFR PORTS IN A LINE FROM ZZV NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FKL AND THEN OVER TOWARD DUJ. BY LATE MORNING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT EXITS EAST. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE RIDGES AND EAST OF KPIT WHERE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURN OVERNIGHT IN WEAK FLOW. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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