Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190541 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 141 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A shortwave and associated warm front should result in increasing clouds and low showers chances through the day as they approach and cross the region, though a lack of deep moisture and ascent should be a limiting factor. Overnight lows are expected to be 10-15 degrees above average, with daytime highs 5-10 degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A weak, de-amplifying wave will pass well to our north Wednesday night, pulling a filling surface low with it. A weak boundary will splay west to east across the area, stalling out due to the broad ridge resident over the southeast CONUS. Rain showers are probable along this boundary Wednesday night into Thursday, but should remain largely disorganized. Shortwave ridging will then occur briefly Thursday morning as another system approaches from the west. The upper trough will dig into the western Great Lakes Thursday afternoon as the surface low moves through the southern Great Lakes. The attendant cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening/night fueled by marginal instability and favorable uni-directional wind shear. Still some questions as to how much instability can be generated ahead of the front, but the current SPC marginal risk looks sufficient at this point. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow behind the Thursday`s cold front will bring drier weather in temporarily for Friday. The trend in operational guidance is to push the weekend system a bit further south. Still, looks like rain will be likely over the latter part of the weekend as an upper-level trough deepens over the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures initially knocked back by the late week cold front will remain near seasonal average through the weekend under general troughing. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions will remain through early afternoon with a dry column in place. Slow moisture advection will arrive as a weak disturbance approaches by late afternoon into tonight. Expect CIGs to lower to MVFR late afternoon, with some IFR in light rain across northern ports expected late evening into the overnight. Winds will generally be south 5-10 KTs. .Outlook... Restrictions will be possible Thursday with low pressure and a cold front. Widespread restrictions are possible Saturday and Sunday with strong low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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