Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010739 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 339 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING EAST OF REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND NEAR AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY SUNDAY...THEN A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. ANOTHER HARD TO TIME FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME TUESDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO FRONT. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERAL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW IS EXPECTED BY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 15KTS BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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