Area Forecast Discussion
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260 FXUS61 KPBZ 170116 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 816 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will bring rain later tonight and Tuesday, with a few showers lingering into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will continue through the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A few showers continue across the area during the evening hours, but the bulk of the rain will arrive from midnight on. A surge of 1 inch plus precipitable water plus strengthening isentropic lift will arrive ahead of the advancing warm front. Have sped up PoPs a bit based on radar and hi-res guidance. Temperatures will also begin a slow rise overnight, which keep precipitation in the liquid category. Most locations will receive measurable rain by sunrise.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes, another shortwave passes, and the left exit region of the jet core moves over the forecast area. Temperatures are forecast to range 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year /climatologically this is the coldest week of the year/ as we stay in the warm sector and strong warm air advection continues. The parent upper trough will cross the region Wednesday with showers ending and slightly cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday. Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures and for surrounding office coordination. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence remains that current VFR/MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR conditions or worse overnight through Tuesday as an area of low pressure spreads rain and lowers ceilings across all terminals. Enhancing low level flow may promote the need to include LLWS on Tuesday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Thereafter, expect general VFR through early Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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