Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260519 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 119 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL DEAL WITH COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE...BUT CLOUDS WILL PREVENT READINGS FROM DRASTICALLY FALLING OFF. TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY KEEPING IN CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WILL BEGIN FILLING IN ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE....SWINGING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE CU DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BY FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BRING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM ALREADY SHOWING BROKEN MVFR CONDITIONS AND THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENCROACH WITH THE NEXT WAVE WITH CIGS DECREASING AS MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CEASES. NOT CONFIDENT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS KPIT...SO A GENERAL GRADIENT FROM VFR SOUTH TO LOW MVFR NORTH IS MAINTAINED...WITH KPIT HOLDING ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. TAX OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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