Area Forecast Discussion
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770 FXUS61 KPBZ 162307 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 607 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow should end tonight as a cold front exits. High pressure should maintain dry weather for the rest of the work week. Below average temperatures should gradually warm to near seasonal levels by the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Snow should continue to taper off from W-E with an exiting cold front as an upper trough advances across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Some terrain enhancement is likely as winds shift to the W, so the winter weather advisories were maintained as is. Wind chills bordering on advisory levels are possible where the winter weather advisories are in effect, so will continue with that mention. Outside of the higher terrain, dry weather should return overnight under building surface ridging. Lows around zero are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Mainly dry and cold weather is expected Wed under as the surface ridge builds under the upper trough. A warming trend will commence on Thu as an upper ridge builds across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm advection will predominate through the weekend as sly low-level flow strengthens ahead of an upper-level wave in the swrn CONUS. Some light freezing rain or snow at the onset of precipitation early in the weekend will transition quickly to liquid as temperature climbs into the 40s and 50s. Warm air will linger until a frontal passage on Mon. The best chance of rain will come on Mon along and ahead of the advancing cold front. Model timing differences continue as they resolve the future storm system with varying strength, but the trend today has been toward a slightly-slower frontal passage. PoP timing was accordingly shifted later by a few hours. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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IFR should improve briefly to VFR as snow ends with an exiting cold front and building surface ridging. MVFR stratocu in cold advection and upper troughing should move back in later tonight, and continue through Wed until mixing lifts cigs heights back to VFR levels. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns over the weekend with approaching low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ074- 076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ510- 511. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ512>514. && $$

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