Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160814 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 414 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Generally dry and warm weather will continue on Wednesday. Rain is likely with a Thursday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rising heights will keep most of the area dry today, and allow for plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. A weak frontal boundary, will stretch across the far south late today. With daytime heating and weak low-level convergence near the boundary, a shower or storm could pop-up in the vicinity of the front this afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Increasing southwesterly flow late tonight into Thursday will lift a warm front through the area. Shower and storm chances will increase Thursday morning as this boundary swings through. The warm front will lift north of the area Thursday afternoon, with mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector. Shortwave trough will swing through the region Thursday evening into early Friday morning. This wave will increase the coverage and intensity of the convection, particularly during the evening hours. Still seeing some timing differences with this system and models again seem to be suffering from some convective feedback, but a nice area of low-level moisture convergence does develop ahead of the upper level wave thus leading to a continuation of likely PoPs. Wave exits the region Friday morning, with some lingering showers possible over the eastern half of the region. Main cold front does not arrive until late Friday, but by this time, the deep moisture will be well east of the area. A shower or storm is possible along the cold front Friday evening/night, as dewpoints ahead of the boundary remain well into the 60s, but with a lack of upper level support, would think that any development will be isolated. Temperatures Thursday will be a degree or two above normal, then a degree or two below on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure briefly builds in Saturday. Another wave Saturday night could bring additional rain chances, but timing will be unfavorable for much else. Broad high pressure will then build into the region for the remainder of the long term. Temperatures will remain near average, building into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Front hasn`t made it through the region yet, but lack of instability and sufficient lift has allowed for showers to dissipate. In it`s wake, clearing skies and light wind should support valley fog, which could impact some ports this morning. The models hit fog hard everywhere, but generally stayed MVFR, save for the usual spots where IFR is possible. After fog burns off, it should be a quiet weather day. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm along the lingering boundary but confidence is not high enough for inclusion. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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