Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 132312 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 712 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MAIN UPDATE WAS FOR SKY TRENDS AND TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE ALREADY SLACKING OFF WITH BEST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL WELL WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON MONDAY COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL WEST ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LIMITED CAPE WILL BE ELEVATED...AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ONLY A WEAK CHANCE FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL COOLING WITH SHOWERS LATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES BY 00Z TUES. BY THAT TIME THE ANAFRONT WILL HAVE SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES WELL AHEAD INTO OUR AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MON. WITH ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED ALONG THE FRONT...ALIGNED NEAR 100 POPS WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES W TO E. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT TAKING US FROM THE RECENT SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES BACK TO TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY. 12Z NAM HAS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING MORE THAN 20C IN 24HRS WITH A MINIMUM NEAR -14C WEDS MORNING. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WEDS MORNING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY WEDS MORNING AS THE COLD LLVL TEMPS ARE PUSHING GUIDANCE LOWER AND LOWER WITH EACH ITERATION. HAVE SIDED WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS AM STILL BANKING ON CLOUDS MOVING OUT QUICK ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES FALL OFF WEDS MORNING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...DID NOT FULLY DIVE IN AND FOLLOW MET GUIDANCE...WHICH BRING OUR NRN ZONES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH A WARMING TREND INTO MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE PROVIDING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS ARE EXPD TO CONT INTO MON AFTN. A LLVL JET WL DVLP OVRNGT INTO MON MRNG AHD OF AN APRCHG CDFNT...SO INCLUDED A PD OF LLVL WND SHEAR AT ALL PORTS UNTIL MXG BRINGS GUSTY SW WNDS BY MD MRNG. SCT SHWRS WL MOVE INTO THE RGN AS THE FNT NEARS DURG THE DAY...WITH MORE WDSPRD RAINFALL AND RSTRNS MON NGT. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RSTRNS ARE EXPD AS THE CDFNT CROSSES MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN VFR RTNS.
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&& MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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