Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251347 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 947 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving low pressure will keep rain in the forecast through early Friday. Rain chances return for part of the weekend with another area of low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Made some mainly cosmetic changes to the forecast for the afternoon. Deep moisture and lift providing showers this morning will lift north of the region by early afternoon. Some breaks in the cloud cover will help to steepen low-level lapse rates, allowing scattered to numerous showers to develop during peak heating. There will be enough instability for isolated thunderstorms. In line with SPC outlook, any isolated severe risk will be mainly limited to areas along the ridges, along the edge of more favorable but fading deep level shear. Slightly lowered max temperatures, but not as low as LAMP guidance given breaks in the clouds could still allow values to pop into at least the mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another area of ascent and deep layer moisture is progged to track across the region tonight as the low begins to drift E of the area, with increasing POPs for showers. A few showers could continue through Fri morning until the low exits the E coast and shortwave ridging builds in. The next approaching shortwave and surface warm front is progged for Fri night/Sat as surface low pressure tracks NE from the Srn Plains, resulting in shower chances increasing. Model progged instability is sufficient S of I 80 for thunderstorm chances also. The low is progged to track across the lower Great Lakes Sunday, dragging a cold front across the region. Maintained likely POPs for showers/tstms with it`s approach and passage. After below average readings Friday, temperatures should return to near or above average levels by the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper troughing is progged across the NE CONUS through most of the period. Individual shortwaves rotating through the trough should maintain periodic shower chances, with the Memorial Day holiday progged to see the least activity at this time. Temperatures should average within a few degrees of the seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 8am, southern edge of precipitation is about to move from south to north across ZZV/MGW, with much of the widespread rain having already moved north and allowing for more of a transition to scattered showers during the morning. Atlantic moisture fetch should then be briefly cut off as low level flow turns SW. This should shunt low level saturation progressively NEward, allowing for MVFR then VFR conditions to return to most sites with scattered showers still about as the upper low settles overhead. However, as it moves NEward this evening, low level moisture will quickly wrap back in and trend cigs decidedly downward overnight. Fries/Green .Outlook... Showers continue through much of the period with episodic restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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