Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260449 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1249 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE WEST... WHICH WILL KEEP THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE...RETURNING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION. FURTHER ADJUSTED SKY COVER TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE...SURFACE OBS AND NEAR TERM MODELS. NUDGED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST LAMP AND HRRR NUMBERS... WHICH CAME IN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY. WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP EASTWARD PROGRESS SLOW DURING THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING IT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. BEST QPF WILL LIE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IN OHIO. HOWEVER...ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO GET A GOOD SOAKING. PWATS WILL BE PUNCHING UP NEAR OR JUST OVER 1.0 INCH IN DECENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY A TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOTAL QPF OF 0.4" TO 0.8" LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS EVENT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST OF A LBE-MGW LINE. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE APPROPRIATE AREA WIDE. EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP FRIDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO QPF IS LOW. DURING THE DAY...A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SHSN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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