Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150516 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 116 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No changes to the overnight period. Following morning clouds and fog, expect a dry day as weak high pressure settles in under the persistent 500mb trough. Sunshine should return at least by the afternoon, which will provide a nice boost in temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak upper troughing will persist across Central PA through much of the weekend, as surface high pressure slowly drifts eastward through the region. This will result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough. A warming trend is also expected, with temperatures around 5 degrees above seasonal levels by the weekend.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weakening plains trough could return only minimal rain chances late Monday as it approaches. Building ridging thereafter should result in dry and warmer than average weather for much of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... While VFR prevails everywhere at this hour, a gradual deterioration is expected through the overnight hours, especially in areas where the stratus deck scatters out. Stayed close to the forecast inherited this afternoon, with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance, most of which bring IFR visibility and/or ceilings to OH and parts of PA. Cross-over temperatures are in the upper 50/low 60s, which look likely to be realized. Confidence is moderate to high in this scenario. Conditions should improve gradually after daybreak tomorrow, with additional stratocu expected with lingering influence from the upper low. Surface wind will remain light and variable through the period. .Outlook... Conditions will gradually improve into the weekend as high pressure begins to take hold. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ001. OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001>004- 012-021-509>514.
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&& $$

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