Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300058 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 858 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A series of weak disturbances will keep periodic shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms resulting from diurnally driven instability and a nearly stationary surface boundary across the area should continue to diminish this evening. Increasing cloud cover and minimal shower chances should continue overnight however as low pressure approaches. Lows should average a few degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A weakly coupled upper jet structure looks to work across the area on Saturday with the continuation of a moist and unstable boundary layer in place. Increasing upper divergence through the day will allow for shower and thunderstorm development over the area on Saturday. Mid- level moisture flow from E-W will continue to lift north of the area as the system digs over the region Saturday night, resulting in the best chances of showers and thunderstorms slowly translating NNEward. Another wave will dig into the base of the upper level trough by Sunday afternoon. This will bring another increase in the chances of shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the area as the mid-levels start to nominally cool. It will also start to usher in drier mid and upper level air as it does so. This will allow for the reduction in the chances of precipitation by Monday as cooler NWerly flow becomes entrenched over the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will build into the area from the western Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This will allow the area to remain in cooler northerly flow even as subsidence builds. A dry forecast will thus be maintained through mid-week. Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere should thereafter increase from mid-week onward as amplification of the pattern is evident on basically all guidance over the upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Lakes during the second half of the week. This ridge and resultant low level thermal ridge should start to flop over toward our area by Friday, which at this point looks to be the warmest day of the next week or so, when temperatures should push again well above normal. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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General VFR is forecast through the evening with exceptions for isolated convection which will wane with the sun. Mention will be reserved for amendments given the declining coverage and questionable location of cell initiation. Given the frontal position and abundant low level moisture, expect the return of some fog on Saturday morning, although mid level cloudiness is expected to alleviate a widespread IFR threat. Will hedge from previous pessimistic forecast with an MVFR mention. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm restriction potential through Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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