Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030016 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 816 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE SOUTHWARD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE CONSEQUENTLY WAS DIMINISHED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDED BACK UPWARD DURING THE NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE LINGERING TOMORROW...STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES. LIMITED INSOLATION IS LIKELY TO RESTRICT HEATING GIVEN CONTINUED EASTERLY WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SO MAXIMA WERE LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. POPS WERE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED FAR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW OFFERING THE BEST CHANCE OF GENERATING ANY PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH...ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE TIED TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS JUST DOWNSTREAM...SO POP GRADIENT WAS SHARPENED TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA AS NE WIND FUNNELS IN DRIER AIR. ITS STILL A TOUGH CALL HOW FAR PARTIAL CLEARING GETS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS IT REACHING THE I-80 VICINITY. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. FARTHER SOUTH...SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS STAYING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR CURRENT READINGS...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORKS. WITH THE OVERCAST SKY...TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 60F. THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR PITTSBURGH IS 51 AND WE ARE ALREADY AT 57 WHICH MEANS ITS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. AS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...AND WEAK POCKETS OF DCVA RIDING NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN WV AND WRN MD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN. CLOSED UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SLOWLY TRUDGE EASTWARD...BEFORE WEAKENING AND CROSSING THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. NAM/GFS TRY TO MOVE THE LOW CENTER A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER...WHICH IS PREFERABLE IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN. STILL EXPECT MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE RIDGES...AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS MOST MOISTURE LOCKED UP THERE. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO MIDLEVEL RIPPLES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. DID REDUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT LOOKS DELAYED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON BACK OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE LACK OF A COHERENT TRIGGER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY WEST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK UPSLOPING WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A DAMMING LOOK TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP PROFILES. FEWER CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL POINT TO A WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. STRATUS HAS REMAINED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS HAVING MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS BVI/BTP/DUJ. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC MODELS QUICKLY CLEAR OUT CLOUDS TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS...THINK THAT GFSLAMP HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON STRATUS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STAGNANT AIRMASS AND EASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PREVENT DRIER AIR THAT WAS ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPT FOR FKL/DUJ...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NAM/GFS WERE CORRECT AND CLOUDS MANAGED TO CLEAR...OR IF GFSLAMP FORECAST TURNS OUT TO NOT BE TOO PESSIMISTIC AND LIFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER ALL. AS WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THEIR OVERNIGHT HEIGHTS TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE FROM DIURNAL CUMULUS...INSTEAD OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS LINGERED THE LAST TWO DAYS. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ KRAMAR/TGREEN

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