Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291427 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1027 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OH / NW PA ZONES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE MAX DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS CHANGE WAS BASED OFF OF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MODEL DATA WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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