Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 022330 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 730 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LAST OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MOVING EAST FROM INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 01Z. STILL WILL KEEP LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING SOMEWHAT LOWER DEW POINTS STILL WEST BUT WILL HAVE FADING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED MORE AS FOG THAN STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH GRADIENT SLACKENING...AND HAVE INSERTED VALLEY FOG CWA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHRA POTENTIAL SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK BY CAPPING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS H500 HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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DRIER AND TEMPORARILY COOLER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ABUNDANT RECENT RAINFALL AND STRONG OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AT LEAST SOME FOG FORMATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LAYER RH VALUES FALL OFF A CLIFF AND CLEARING SEEMS TO BE QUITE THE COMMON THEME AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE SPREAD AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL GFS/EMCWF/CANADIAN IS SMALL ENOUGH TO BE NEGLIGIBLE...SO TIMING FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS PINNED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS FEATURED MOST PLACES IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES DO MANAGE TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB CONSENSUS VALUES RUNNING UP TOWARD +18 TO +20C. GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE...THESE VALUES WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX OUT TO THE SURFACE WITHOUT A LOT OF MECHANICAL HELP BELOW THAT LEVEL. AS SUCH...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RATHER THAN MAKING ANY REALISTIC RUN UP TOWARD 90F. FRIES
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT DUJ HAVE RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL AIRPORTS THAT SAW APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AT AIRPORTS THAT REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY. ONE EXCEPTION WAS FKL...WHICH RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN AND IS FORECAST TO DROP TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BY MID MORNING DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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