Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310119 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 919 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS CWA CURRENTLY...WITH A FEW FLAT CU/SC ALONG IT IN SOUTHWEST PA. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH. STILL...THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP A SMALL PUFF OF WIND GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A DEEP DECOUPLED LAYER TO FORM...AND THUS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. STILL FORESEE LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS OVERALL TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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