Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250123 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 923 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A couple of crossing disturbances will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio Valley Region through Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --
Increasing clouds and scattered showers are expected tonight with the approach and passage of a shortwave. A few thunderstorms are also possible west of PIT early where sufficient diurnally driven instability is observed on meso analysis, though this is expected to diminish overnight. Lows are expected to be around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect a decrease in precip chance Thursday morning as the first shortwave exits, though chances should increase again through the day with the approach of a front. The northern zones are progged to be in a favorable environment to experience more numerous convection Thursday as the front sags southward. Fueled by day time surface heating and increased flow aloft, some thunderstorms may reach severe criteria, but overall coverage and intensity should be marginal across the region as instability remains limited by very warm mid level temperatures. Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Given the strength of the upper ridge, southward frontal penetration is questionable, but will generally persist with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest deterministic trends as flow becomes zonal. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flow is expected to back to a southwesterly direction as an upper high enhances and shifts towards the Mid-Atlantic. As a result of the strengthening ridge, anonymously high surface temperatures and upper heights are predicted by ensemble models and have led to higher confidence in raising forecast temps early in the period. Overall, hot and humid conditions can be expected in the beginning of the long term until the passage of a shortwave on Monday provides some relief from the heat. POPs were maintained in association of the aforementioned shortwave as per the latest Superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Few Cirrus across the region this evening, otherwise expect mid clouds to increase later tonight as a shortwave approaches. Showers will encroach from the west overnight, but coverage may be limited due to lack of low level instability. Only mentions of VCSH overnight, with a better chance of restrictions Thursday as main shortwave arrives. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.