Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260027 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 827 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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