Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 130940
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
540 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather
through Saturday. A cold front will return shower chances for
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor changes to sky cover and temperatures for the pre dawn
update based on observations and near term models.
Previous...Mainly dry weather is expected today under shortwave
ridging, though areas of status and stratocu are expected to
persist with moisture below a temperature inversion. SE upslope
flow and a moist boundary layer should maintain fog and drizzle
across the higher terrain of WV and MD. Temperatures are
expected to average 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging should maintain dry weather through Saturday
night. Veering surface winds to the S-SW should also result in
clearing skies. The ridge is progged to slide E by Sunday as a
shortwave trough advances out of the Midwest. This trough is
expected to drive its associated cold front across the region
Sunday, with showers expected. Left out thunder with little if
any instability progged. The front should quickly exit Sunday
night. Temperatures should continue to run 10 to 15 degrees
above average until FROPA returns seasonally cool temperatures
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another trough is progged for a Monday approach and passage.
Scattered showers are possible especially N of PIT with the
trough and cool NW flow. Surface high pressure should maintain
dry weather for the rest of the week. After below average
temperatures to start the week, readings should gradually warm
to above average levels by late week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Easterly downslope flow should gradually turn more southeasterly
over the next 6-12 hours. This will allow for VFR conditions to
continue for the most part away from DUJ/FKL, while even there,
as the wind turns more southerly, the stratus should gradually
shunt off to the north. For ZZV, much weaker boundary layer flow
combined with a chasm in the mid-clouds has allow for fog to
develop. This seems as though it should be short-lived as mid-
cloud advances northward. A tempo was included for it, however
cigs/vis should gradually improve as mid-cloud moves overhead.
Fries

.Outlook...
The next chance for widespread restrictions is expected with a
Sunday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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