Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 092227 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$


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