Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 301841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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