Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 162142
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
442 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with
increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update to freshen up PoP grids based on double-band of showers
currently lifting northeastward across the CWA. The main event
will occur after midnight, as a strong push of isentropic lift
arrives with the warm front, bringing more widespread rain.
Temperatures will drop initially, thanks to wetbulbing, but a rise
is indicated overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over
the Great Lakes, another shortwave passes, and the left exit
region of the jet core moves over the forecast area.

Temperatures are forecast to range 20-25 degrees above normal for
this time of year /climatologically this is the coldest week of
the year/ as we stay in the warm sector and strong warm air
advection continues. The parent upper trough will cross the
region Wednesday with showers ending and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday.
Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the
Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid
level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model
blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures
and for surrounding office coordination.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A line of showers may bring brief MVFR restrictions, but
otherwise VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR in
warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm front. Further
deterioration to IFR is expected by this evening as rain
overspreads the area. Did not have confidence to include LIFR
ceilings at terminals other than FKL/DUJ, but that will definitely
be a possibility near the PIT metro area. Models also show the
potential for LLWS to develop between sunrise and noon Tuesday
morning north and west of Pittsburgh, but did not have enough
confidence at this time to put this into the forecast either.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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