Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 281903
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
303 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH CLEARING
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A QUICK SPIKE OF TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS NOW SHOW
PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE WV/MD RIDGES...ALTHOUGH
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
PULLED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER IN THE RIDGES TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE STRONGER AND PRODUCING MORE RAIN WHILE IT IS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...BUT WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES. CONSIDERING BUMPING POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS RATHER DRY AND IN THE END KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE SYSTEM
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTIONS OF AN EWD
DVLPG HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF/STRONG CDFNT LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...NWD
TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SCENARIO OF
DISRUPTED DYNAMICS AS THE SYSTEMS CROSSES THE UPR OHIO REGION.
DESPITE THIS SYSTEM BEING THE NXT BEST CHC FOR PCPN...POPS WL RMN
IN THE CHC CATEGORY UNTIL FURTHER MATURATION OCCURS.

CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPS IS HIGHER...BUT THE COLD SURGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND RAPID MODERATION
BACK TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS IS ANTICIPATED AFTR NXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST SAME AS IT HAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR-LIFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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