Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 250754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE...WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL USE MOST OF ITS ENERGY TO
BREAK THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...SO HAVE ISOLATED POPS TO
THE FAR NORTH. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DECREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IS
STILL IN QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONGER ONES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND DRIFT IN NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS.

THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO...
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVR
THE UPR OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL. CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD AGAIN WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THAT LOW...HENCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKS END UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE ENCROACHMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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