Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 212319
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
719 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet weekend will give way to a drier beginning to the new week.
Warmer conditions will also follow for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
evening update to adjust pops toward radar trends and adjust
hourly temperatures.

Upper trough only slowly shifting east this evening as another
shortwave dives down backside of trough early tonight across the
eastern lakes. Have slowed eastward progression of likely pops
this evening and maintained chance pops back into eastern ohio
until after midnight. No changes to temperatures as they look in
line.

A secondary surge of mid-level cold air will move into the CWA
for Sunday. This will allow for more unstable lapse rates yet
again. Model soundings do indicate 500-900 J/kg of CAPE and given
that the majority of it is in the thermal charge separation layer,
a slight chance of thunderstorms was added to the forecast for
Sunday. However, Sunday certainly does not look like at all the
washout that Saturday has been. Sunday max temps not as cool as
saturday but still 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Remaining diurnal rain showers over the east will taper off Sunday
night after the atmosphere becomes more stable. The slow moving
vertically-stacked low pressure system will linger along the Mid-
Atlantic through Monday. Meanwhile, a ridge will continue to build
west of the area and will try to suppress cloud and rain
production. Enough moisture and instability associated with the
low remains over our eastern 1/3 Monday afternoon for showers with
isolated thunder. This activity will once again diminish with the
setting sun.

Tuesday should remain dry as the low slowly meanders up the coast
and the ridge crawls in. Sunshine and increasing southwesterly
flow will lead to climbing temperatures through midweek.
tax

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging building across the eastern United States will result in
southwesterly flow, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Compared to previous model runs, Wednesday appears to be mostly
dry, but otherwise there should be a fair chance for showers
through the rest of the week. Kept thunder mention during
afternoon/evening hours following a diurnal cycle. Temperatures
will be above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/occasional MVFR conditions are expected through tonight as
weakening surface low pressure crosses the region. Shower
coverage should slowly diminish with the weakening low. A
deepening upper trough is expected to become a cut-off upper low
across PA on Sunday, keeping MVFR restrictions and scattered to
numerous showers for most ports east of the PA/OH border.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are possible through Monday before the upper low
exits.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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