Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291013
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
613 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 6AM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED PRECIPITATION FROM I-80 CORRIDOR.
SHOWERS COMING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE...AND
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER MENTION. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN
OHIO...AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SHOW SHOWERS HOLDING
TOGETHER MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE.
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE
WITH SPC PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST
OF OUR REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.