Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE
LACK OF LIFT...SUNSHINE...AND DEEP MOISTURE...EXPECT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO DECAY. DO EXPECT A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MY
AREA AND A NIGHT OF MILD TEMPS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO CROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS MARGINAL...BUT ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE AND SUNSHINE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO GET THINGS ROLLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
LATE THIS EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL
NOSE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
WARMING EXPECTED...ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
IN THE RIDGES MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEEK WITH DRIER
AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE RIDGES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WENT WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR FROPA. LESS
HUMID WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS HAS THUS BEEN INCLUDED...BUT CONVECTION WILL CEASE
AND CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER BY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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