Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 220142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
942 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Cool and unsettled weather is expected through Saturday with a
crossing upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return
Sunday under high pressure.


Deformation band of rain along the western edge of a wrapped-up
low pressure system continues to make slow progress across the
region tonight. Expect the best period of rain to be through
midnight, with showers thereafter in northwest flow, as the upper
trough pivots toward the coast. With 850hpa temperatures falling
to -3C through Saturday morning, its reasonable to expect some
snow showers in the high terrain of WV and MD and possibly north
of I-80. Considering how warm we`ve been, any accumulation should
be minimal and on grassy surfaces.

An tightening pressure gradient and mixing in cold advection
should also result in gusty winds especially in the higher
terrain, where gusts around 40 mph are expected. At this time,
have not hoisted an advisory but have mentioned the wind gusts in
the HWO. Low temperatures should be near the seasonal averages.


Cold advection in northwest flow, limited lake enhancement, and
proximity to the upper low/trough should continue a scattered
shower potential across the area Saturday, with some snow possibly
mixing in across the higher terrain. The tight pressure gradient
should also result in gusty winds of 30-35 mph, with gusts near 45
mph in the higher terrain across WV/MD.

Building high pressure late Saturday and Sunday should return dry
weather to the region before a fast moving cold front approaches
and passes through the area Sunday night. Weak upper troughing and
cool northwest flow should keep some clouds across the region
Monday, with low chance pops for showers north of I 80. Other
than a brief warm up Sunday in warm advection ahead of the next
cold front, temperatures should average below seasonal levels.


Ridging should maintain dry weather across the region through mid
week. A Midwestern trough should approach and cross the area by
late week, with shower chances returning. Temperatures should
average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels through the


Gradual improving MVFR conditions are expected through the night
as the main area of rain associated with the low pressure lifts
off to the east. The upper trough will pivot overhead through
Saturday, intensifying the cold northwest flow, and reinforcing
the chance for scattered showers and continued restrictions
through at least midday. Expect VFR conditions to be realized
first at ZZV and slowly further south and east away from Lake
Erie through Saturday. Expect wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts as the
mixing deepens via cold advection at the top of the layer.

Periodic restrictions can be expected until high pressure
approaches the region in the wake of a late Sunday/early Monday
shortwave and associated weak front.




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