Area Forecast Discussion
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830
FXUS61 KPBZ 220207
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
907 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers will accompany a cold front across the
region tonight. Dry weather can then be expected until the
approach of the next front on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
No major changes were needed for the eve update as an approaching
cold front will increase precip probabilities to likely and
categorical numbers. The cold airmass in the wake of that front
is not expected to be deep enough to sustain low level
convection/i.e. snow showers for long. Any post frontal snow
accumulation should be thus be limited to an inch or less for
the I 80 corridor and ridges through the peri-dawn hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure under broad upper troughing will then
ensure a dry, but cool midweek and Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble forecasts are showing the next cold front dropping
through the area on Saturday with fairly weak support for
precipitation, followed by the next trough setting up over the
Eastern CONUS. Cold weather is thus projected to start the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Condition deterioration is expected tonight with the encroachment
of a cold front. Expect MVFR cigs with rain changing to snow
and lcl IFR, especially at FKl and DUJ.

Cold advection on nw wind in the wake of the front will
maintain MVFR cigs through Wednesday for ports east of ZZV.

.Outlook...
The next chance for restrictions is forecast with a Saturday
cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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