Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

458
FXUS61 KPBZ 231007
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
607 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low
leaves the East Coast. Dry weather will return on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The only appreciable change for the predawn update was an upward
temperature adjustment for today.

Previous...
Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move
over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Models continue to
show shortwaves rotating around the low, which will necessitate
the inclusion of pops over the eastern half of the area. Highest
pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture
will be located. Atmosphere destabilization looks like a good bet
this afternoon, so have continued with the mention of thunder.
Expect to see a wide range of temperatures today, from the cool
and wet east to the dry and sunny west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build in tonight, behind the exiting
upper low. Any showers over the east, will be ending and skies
will clear.

With strengthening ridge and eastward moving surface high, area
finally will see a dry day Tuesday with warmer temperatures.

Next slow moving system will bring the risk for showers back into
the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to
develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for
the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support
increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend
approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves
embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which
is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights
and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through
the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of shallow fog, with patchy IFR visibility, will mix out
quickly this morning. Building high pressure will ensure VFR for
most ports for the remainder of the TAF period. Exceptions may be
eastern terminals where scattered showers may again develop in
vicinity this afternoon as deep low pressure exits eastward. Dry
advection off the surface is expected to inhibit fog formation
tonight for all but those eastern ports that receive rain today.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with late week low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/22



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.