Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151739
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1239 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The arrival of colder air this afternoon will return snow
shower chances to the forecast through Thursday. High pressure
will then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier
and warmer conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A deepening upper low projected to cross into New York this
evening will reinforce colder air across the area. The
combination of colder air with increasing moisture in the low
levels will assist in generating more snow showers, especially
across the favorable upslope terrain. Model soundings depict
steep lapse rates through the snow growth zone with sufficient
moisture overnight across the ridges of WV and MD. Thus,
confidence has increased in issuing an advisory for snow
overnight. Given the quick breakdown of the inversion height
as high pressure is progged to build late tonight, snow
accumulation should overall remain below advisory criteria
elsewhere.

Temperatures will gradually fall through the period
and reach near seasonal values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Building high pressure should end the snow showers later on
Thursday and keep temperatures slightly cooler than average. Dry
and relatively warmer weather is expected Friday while a ridge
develops over the southeast CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridging pattern generally dominates this period for much of
the eastern U.S., leading to well above normal temperatures. Dry
weather is expected through at least Saturday. A weak shortwave
tries to undercut the ridge across the Tennessee Valley
Saturday night. Still think that most precipitation from this
feature will remain off to our south, and have continued slight
chance PoPs. The ridge then reestablishes itself through Monday.
A Canadian shortwave may succeed in knocking down the ridge to
some degree by Tuesday, leading to the next decent rain chance.
No new cold air outbreaks are foreseen for quite some time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceilings/visibilities will generally be VFR or high-end MVFR
for the most part in cold northwest flow through the period.
Exceptions will be KFKL and KDUJ, where IFR snow showers will be
common into the overnight. Northwest winds will gust over 25 KTS
this evening, then slowly diminish toward daybreak. As low
pressure off the New England coast moves east Thursday, gradual
improvement to vfr can be expected by late day.

.OUTLOOK...
A weak disturbance may bring restrictions Friday morning,
otherwise the next chance for widespread restrictions will be
with a Tuesday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ511>514.

&&

$$



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