Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251736
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS A BIT FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTH...AS DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE IS HANGING TOUGH. WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS SEEN
ON 12Z PBZ SOUNDING...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND START TO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IS
STILL IN QUESTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONGER ONES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND DRIFT IN NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ALSO USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS.

THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO...
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVR
THE UPR OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL. CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD AGAIN WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THAT LOW...HENCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKS END UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID/HI
CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING WITH TIME THOUGH...AND SOME HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF PIT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN A SOUTHWARD MARCH LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE TO SINK ACROSS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY/TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL START AFTER 06Z. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE A THREAT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.  MVFR CIG/VIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTHWARD MAINLY AFTER 12Z. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY TO MENTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS YET. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ NEAR AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE. MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.