Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160702
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS
AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR
RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.