Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 161441
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. OCCLUDED
FRONT NOW CROSSING RIDGES WITH NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERING
EASTERN OHIO WITH TROUGH AXIS.

PREVIOUS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK
IN RATES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
BECOMES INVOLVED. MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING...KEEPING POPS HIGH UNTIL
ITS EXIT. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE AND CAA WILL BEGIN AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND PULL THE
COLDER AIR EASTWARD. THE CAA WILL START SLOW TONIGHT BUT WILL
RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
COLDER AIR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES. INVERSIONS
WILL LOWER RATHER QUICKLY...BUT SO WILL THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL
KEEP THE POPS FOR SNOW MOSTLY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WED
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND VEER THE WINDS FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF EXPANSION OF SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO LOW IT WILL NOT BE A
LARGE EXPANSION.

ON THURSDAY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHOVED NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK
RIDGE DRIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CONFINE THE
SNOW SHOWER RISK TO THE NORTH.

NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BLD IN THU NGT AND FRI ENDING ANY LINGERING
SNW SHWRS N OF I 80. AN UPR TROF MOVG OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS...
WITH A DVLPG SERN CONUS SFC LOW...WL RTN PCPN CHCS SAT INTO SUN.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN NRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN AND
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. RIDGING IS PROGGED LTR SUN AND MON. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION WL CONT TDA AS LLVLS SATURATE WITH SHWRS
AND SPPRTG CDFNT. IN ADDITION...SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE WEST BY
EVE WITH INITIAL GUSTS NR 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RSTRN POTENTIAL WL CONT FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK WITH COLD ADVCTN
IN THE WAKE OF TDAS FRONT...AND WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









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