Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 281325
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
825 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low pressure will return periodic rain chances to the
forecast tonight through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes were made for the morning update. Warm advection
ahead of an approaching occluded front should maintain the
increase in mid and high level clouds through the day, with highs
around 10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next shortwave and occluded front is progged to cross the area
tonight through early Tuesday as a closed upper low tracks from
the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Sufficient moisture,
ascent, and low level jet support should result in a period of
rain across the area. The low level jet should also result in
gusty winds at the surface, though model soundings show the
strongest winds remaining capped above the surface.

The front and precip are progged to exit the region Tuesday
morning. Another shortwave ahead of the slow eastward moving upper
low is progged to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region
Tuesday night through Wednesday, with another period of rain
supported by deep moisture, ascent, and low level jet support.

Another shortwave rotating around the upper low is progged for a
Thursday passage with slight to low chances for rain and possible
snow showers. Temperatures should be well above seasonal levels
through midweek, before cold advection returns them to near
average by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low is progged to track across Eastern Canada through
late week with upper troughing extending across the Northeast
CONUS. The pattern is progged to become less amplified by the
weekend with a series of crossing upper troughs expected. This
should keep periodic rain and snow shower chances and near to
below seasonal average temperatures in the forecast. Followed
close to NAEFS guidance and WPC progs which steered away from a
very amplified ECMWF pattern depiction late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR forecast through the day. Cirrus shield will lower to a mid-
deck layer in the afternoon. Southeast winds should begin to
slowly increase during the afternoon hours, but any stronger gusts
will hold off until the evening and nighttime hours.

.OUTLOOK...
Periods of restrictions are are possible with the passage of two
low pressure systems this week. The first progged for Monday
night through Tuesday morning and the other Wednesday through
Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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