Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 171943
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid area will remain across the region through the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front is completing its passage across the region. Away
from Jefferson PA, Garrett, and Preston counties, any shower
coverage has been hard to come by. Nevertheless, with an
isolated storm having popped up in Washington county, will
continue with slight chance pops for at least a couple more
hours. Also continued with chance pops in the ridges tomorrow
afternoon, but decided to cut back on amount of area with chance
pops considering how meager coverage has been today.
Temperatures could rise a degree or two tomorrow from current
values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Higher 500mb heights will creep into the region, with warmer air
continuing to move into the area. A shortwave Wednesday night
could trigger a shower or two, with a more potent shortwave
crossing over the ridge on Thursday, bringing a chance of storms
to all locations. Same as with the previous forecast, Wednesday
appears to be the hottest day of the upcoming week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term deterministic and ensemble models show a series of
waves passing over the forecast area. It will be difficult to
pin down any particular timing for precipitation at this point,
and have continued with chance pops through the period. At this
point, Saturday night and Sunday showed the best model agreement
for timing of rain and have added likely pops during this time,
although this timing could certainly change. Between the upper
ridge weakening in strength and clouds associated with the
series of waves, temperatures will trend down slightly through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated convection is expected along a cold front this
afternoon.

Convection will subside diurnally, and local restrictions in
overnight fog are possible at any terminals that see rain during
the day.

.OUTLOOK...
General restrictions are not expected through Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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