Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291536 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH STRATUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN RAISED SKY GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REACHABLE ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER MIXING REACHES REGION LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT STILL COOL BUT SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS THIS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY. POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY. DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA- WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500 HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE WARMTH.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND WITH BKN-OVC STRATO-CU INTO THE EVENING. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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