Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230919 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 519 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quick update to account for stratus development along the I80 corridor and Garrett county early this morning that is expected to diminish by mid-morning. Otherwise no changes were needed early this morning. The previous discussion follows. High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the period and maintain dry conditions with limited cloud coverage. Relatively cool morning lows resulting from stronger radiational cooling under clear skies and calm winds will recover quickly with daytime highs expected to be slightly above normal. Fog is less likely compared to recent mornings with an unfavorable hydrolapse. Locations where temperatures fall to meet dewpoints this morning will likely see dew rather than fog. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging will continue to transition over the area through the period with the ridge axis progged to be east of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then turn southwesterly and result in increased moisture advection with cloud coverage increasing later in the day. Overnight lows will be warmer as a result. Rain chances will be on the rise Thursday as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of a weak cold front expected to cross the area late Thursday night. Friday will largely be dry in the wake of the front except for a slight chance of activity over the higher terrain where increased convergence, residual low-level moisture, and daytime heating may be enough to trigger a few showers/storms. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level high will remain nearly stationary across the southeastern United States through the period. The chance for precipitation will be dependent on the timing of waves rotating around the high. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep conditions dry Saturday and Sunday, with the GFS bringing a wave through on Monday while the ECMWF remains dry. As has been the general trend, temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure centered near KPIT will keep VFR conditions through the TAF period. Calm winds and clear skies may allow for patchy fog development along the river valleys before daybreak, but confidence in restrictions at terminals is too low to include in TAFs. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a cold front Thursday and Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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