Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241918 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 318 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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