Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031732 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 132 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STALLED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND HEAD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 855 AM...UPDATED SKY COVER TO CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO RAISED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LAMP NUMBERS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...STILL EXPECT SHRA CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF MY AREA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN WV. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOSED UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SLOWLY TRUDGE EASTWARD...BEFORE WEAKENING AND CROSSING THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECT MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE RIDGES...AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS MOST MOISTURE LOCKED UP THERE. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO MIDLEVEL RIPPLES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. DID REDUCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT LOOKS DELAYED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON BACK OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE LACK OF A COHERENT TRIGGER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY WEST OF THE RIDGES. WEAK UPSLOPING WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A DAMMING LOOK TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND/TEMP PROFILES. FEWER CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL POINT TO A WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING A DRIER PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CONSENSUS FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEANING A SOUTHERLY DROP OF THE JET AXIS AND A BETTER CHANCE THE STORM TRACK WOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MIXING CONTINUES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY MVFR...ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN LIFT INTO A CU DECK BY MIDDAY...WHEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO POP UP. HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER PERSISTENT TROUGHING WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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