-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH
STRATUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN RAISED SKY GRIDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REACHABLE
ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER MIXING REACHES REGION LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE
BUT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT STILL COOL
BUT SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS THIS MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WITH BKN-OVC STRATO-CU INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$