Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261805 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH LBE AND WILL PASS MGW SHORTLY. TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS HELPING TO FEED A STRONGER LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT IN THE RLX CWA. LIGHTER SHOWERS EXIST BEHIND. THUNDER HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT SO FAR...BUT COULD STILL SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DESPITE THE QUICK COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBZERO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS LAGGING THE BOUNDARY A BIT. THIS WILL DELAY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FKL AREA SHOULD START TO SEE FLAKES BEFORE 00Z. WITH DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ABOVE WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS...PLUS THE WARM GROUND... ACCUMULATIONS WILL HARD TO COME BY. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL START TO TICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS 12Z AS MAIN H500 SHORTWAVE STARTS TO APPROACH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALREADY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FRONT NOW PASSING THROUGH MGW. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME. CHANGEOVER TO SHSN WILL OCCUR SLOWLY TONIGHT...BUT CIG/VIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR AT WORST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 12Z WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...BUT CIGS WILL KEEP SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AND SETTLE TOWARDS NW. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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