Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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380 FXUS61 KPBZ 022322 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 722 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Valley fog is possible tonight, with isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon, with dry weather for the Fourth and Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb into the lower 90s through the weekend into the start of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy valley fog tonight. --------------------------------------------------------------- Any lingering clouds will dissipate with the loss of mixing this evening and early tonight, giving way to mostly clear skies and light to calm wind. This efficient cooling might suggest lows around average, dropping to near dewpoint observations in the lower 60s and upper 50s. As temperatures approach dews, fog will be possible; most likely in river valleys and sheltered surrounding areas. Fog will burn off after sunrise.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday, mainly in the northern PA counties. - Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth. - Temperatures a few degrees above average. ---------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still, isolated thunderstorms are possible (30%-45% chance) over the following PA counties: Forest, Venango, Butler, eastern Mercer, Clarion, Jefferson, Armstrong, Indiana, and northeastern Allegheny. Given the dry air aloft and substantial surface-based CAPE, there will be a conditional threat for downbursts IF more robust updrafts are able to develop. Machine learning guidance does marginally support a low-end severe weather threat as well. Will continue to monitor this threat. Any convection will quickly diminish after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Afternoon temperatures forecast to be few degrees above seasonal average, while temperatures Thursday night may drop a degree or two below average. Beautiful weather looks to be in store for the Fourth with sfc high pressure and ridging overhead. Models do develop a few isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms in Ohio, but this is likely to remain west of Coshocton and Muskingum counties. Otherwise, the forecast looks great for outdoor plans and evening fireworks. Temperatures will run no more than 5 degrees above average under partly to mostly sunny skies, and heat indices in the mid to upper 80s outside of the ridges. Temperatures fall back to near-normal Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry on Saturday. - Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm chances returning Sunday and Monday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft should promote mainly dry and warm weather again Saturday. Rising heights and southerly flow should boost area highs into the upper 80s to near 90F. NBM probs for 90F are highest across eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia panhandle, and the Pittsburgh urban heat island (70%-85%). For other areas, probabilities are generally around 35%-45% or lower in the higher elevations. The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week, with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning. On Sunday and Monday, 500 mb heights are still expected to approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. The chances of Heat Advisory criteria remain low as heat indices remain in the 90s. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Remaining diurnal clouds will dissipate during the early evening, with patchy high clouds overnight. Fog is forecast to be less widespread Thursday morning, confined mainly to valley locations, especially east of PIT. Included mention at MGW and LBE for now, with potential MVFR/IFR impact. Any valley fog should dissipate by 13Z, with scattered to broken VFR cumulus once again by midday. A cold front dropping south into the region during the afternoon may support isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms after 18Z, although moisture depth is limited overall. Used a PROB30 at DUJ, the site with the best chance of being impacted, and closest to a shortwave dropping southeast across New York State. Mention may be needed at other sites like FKL, LBE, and potentially even PIT/AGC if future hi-res runs indicate better coverage potential. Light and variable wind overnight will take on more of a northwesterly direction under 10 knots by late morning. Outlook... VFR is expected through Sunday as high pressure moves across the region, with precipitation chances and isolated restrictions potentially returning Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley/Lupo NEAR TERM...Milcarek SHORT TERM...Rackley/Lupo LONG TERM...Rackley/Lupo AVIATION...CL