Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240834 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 334 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Record breaking temperatures today will be followed by a cold front late tonight into early Saturday morning with rain along the front, gusty winds through much of Saturday, and temperaturessteadily dropping back to near normal by Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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With the forecast area well within the warm sector, forecast confidence is high in regards to high temperatures today and are expected to rise into the 70s with isolated 80 degree readings...breaking records at all climate locations. Long-term confidence tools have not deviated from suggesting the prolonged warm period we have been in this week and with increased warm advection and mixing ahead of the approaching cold front along with a break in cloud coverage during the afternoon...we are going to see the warmest temperatures of the year and will easily break current records.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Latest model runs show good continuity in regards to timing of a strong cold front overnight through Saturday morning...with the general consensus progging the front crossing Pittsburgh around sunrise Saturday. Based on the synoptic setup...anticipate a solid line of moderate rain with the potential for embedded thunderstorms along the front. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk elsewhere in the forecast area. Strong and gusty winds are likely as the front passes and again behind as the pressure gradient tightens with gusts up to 40 mph possible based on latest guidance and analogs. Regarding precipitation...the bulk of rainfall will be along the front which will have moved east of the ridges by Saturday afternoon. A brief lull in precipitation behind the front will be followed by scattered lake enhanced showers Saturday night under of cold northwesterly flow...eventually changing over to snow with minimal accumulations. precipitation will end by Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in from the west. While temperatures will remain in the 50s Friday night, temps will fall all of Saturday and Saturday night, eventually bottoming out in the 20s. Seasonal highs around 40 are forecast on Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad southwest flow aloft is in place for the first portion of the extended period, before a trend towards a troughing pattern towards the end. While guidance generally agrees with this, details on shortwaves and surface systems remain murky, with model disagreement continuing. The flow and increasing moisture with time will support chances for scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. A more significant system appears possible for later Tuesday night and Wednesday, for which likely PoPs were maintained. Once again, this system will produce nealy all liquid, save for some backside snow showers later Wednesday night. Northwest flow activity may linger on Thursday. Made modifications to the SuperBlend guidance to shade more towards continuity. A trend from normal to above normal temperatures will be felt from Monday through Wednesday, before seasonal values return for Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Looking at a general VFR forecast through the period, with the exception of FKL and DUJ, which may see MVFR cigs this evening. Hit or miss showers, or a brief storm, is possible during the evening at all ports with the exception of MGW and LBE. The best chance to see showers will be a FKL and DUJ, due to their close proximity to the surface front. If restrictions do occur with the activity, they will be short lived. Late tonight, all ports will return to VFR, as the aforementioned surface front moves northward. Only concern for the forecast on Friday will be the strengthening SW winds. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts are possible at all ports during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Friday night and early Saturday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Thu Fri -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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