Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291742 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 142 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled but warm weather is expected through Sunday, with a cold front expected for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shortwave and area of showers and storms moving quickly northeast and weakening this afternoon as system heads into the building east coast ridge. have lowered POPs far south and southeast ridges where boundary has already shifted north and bulk of precip will not reach as far south. Categorical POPs basically north of I-70 early afternoon will tails off quickly by evening as ridge dampens out the shortwave. Tonight developing mid level ridge should be able to shunt front farther north, bringing warmer and more humid conditions, and a lessening chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR/IFR restrictions are expected for a brief period with thunderstorms exiting to the northeast. In addition, BVI/FKL/LBE will keep low ceilings for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. While FKL/DUJ may manage to lift to VFR conditions briefly overnight, did not have enough confidence to include in the forecast at this time. Some scattered showers/thunderstorms will also be possible after midnight, but with no concentrated area of precipitation with the warm front to the north, did not include precipitation in TAFs at this time. Winds will veer through much of the compass through the TAF period, from the west-southwest initially to easterly winds around midnight and eventually back to south-southwest by Sunday afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a strong cold front Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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