Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271638 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1138 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Light rain is just starting to overcome the dry air below 800 mb that was present on this morning`s 12z KPBZ sounding. The first reports of rain have started to trickle in over the past half of an hour around Zanesville, roughly in line with both large scale and hi-res model timing. As the wave generating the warm advection light rain over the area slides ENEward over the afternoon, this rainfall will likely develop farther ENE across the area. Likely PoPs have been maintained for this activity, however saturation is over a fairly limited time interval, and lift is somewhat unimpressive, so QPF remains light. The system looks to clear the eastern portions of the area this evening. Layer RH values start to fall off late in the evening from S to N, likely revealing some clearing before clouds look to start to increase from the west ahead of the next system. Temperature expectations overnight will likely be modulated by the exact interval and longevity of clearing with the low temperature forecast gradated from cooler east and warmer south as a result. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precip chances should end this evening as the shortwave exits and the warm front lifts N of the area. The region is progged to be in the warm sector in SW flow ahead of a trough advancing ewd from the Western CONUS. Several shortwaves and increasing low level jet support are progged to cross the area with periodic showers expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night with elevated instability and increasing shear. The western trough is progged to approach the Great Lakes region Wednesday as an associated surface low tracks from the Midwest into Southern Ontario. Increasing speed and directional shear is progged through the day as the low`s associated cold front approaches. 500mb winds approaching 100kt on both NAM and GFS model soundings is indicative of the strong jet progged over the area. Severe thunderstorms are possible if enough instability develops during the day. This will be monitored over the next couple of days, but a mention will be included in the hazardous weather outlook. Broad upper troughing is expected over the area Wednesday night and Thursday, along with eventual lake and terrain enhancement in cold advection. This should keep snow showers chances in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average Tue and Wed, returning to near or below seasonal levels Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad upper troughing is expected to continue through late week, with a reinforcing crossing shortwave/surface low with some snow Thursday night and Friday. General zonal flow is progged by the weekend as the trough exits, with mainly dry conditions and moderating temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Restrictions of the MVFR variety will be likely shifting ENE from ZZV toward PIT through the afternoon today as light rain develops across the region ahead of a weak system. While rainfall may not make it all the way to FKL, a period of MVFR cigs may this evening for a time. Skies should start to scatter out beyond the evening for a period at most sites with a window of VFR conditions before the next system on Tuesday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely Tuesday as precip develops with another shortwave in strengthening wsw flow. More restrictions and wind problems can be expected with, and in the wake of a Wednesday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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