Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 051942 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 242 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EXPECT A DECENT TEMP DROP THIS EVE AS PER A GENLY CLEAR SKY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS. OVRNGT LOWS WERE THUS PROJECTED NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...BUT THE DROP SHOULD BE TEMPERED AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS DEVELOP OVRNGT WITH THE ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...AND DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS...I.E. AROUND...OR A CPL DEGREES ABOVE THE 40 F MARK UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE BY EVE. THAT PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO BE PCPN FREE WITH A LACK OF ASCENT AND MOISTURE. RIDGING BETWEEN UPR MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DRY SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER...ALBEIT MINOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE. THE UPR MS LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVR THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...HENCE AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR THE UPR OH ON MONDAY. LIKELY POPS IN THE IMPROVED MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WERE THUS MAINTAINED VIA SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...BUT A MARGINAL TEMP PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WARM ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THAT SYSTEM SHOULD COMPROMISE SNOW POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE SERIOUS ACCUMULATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PTN BY MIDWEEK. NEVERTHELESS...UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVR THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUB AVG TEMPS AND PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD...WITH FOCUS TOWARD THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES AS THE WORK WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE. THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND REACH ALL TERMINALS BY MGW. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LOW CHANCE THAT CEILING HEIGHTS COULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT FKL/DUJ. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...WITH RESTRICTIONS PERSISTING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/33

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