Area Forecast Discussion
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854 FXUS61 KPBZ 290540 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 140 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled but warm weather is expected through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Biggest change for the overnight will be the adjustment of PoPs in an attempt to time the overnight shortwaves. The first shortwave, which is driving the current decaying MCS, should be through around 06z. Expect a lull in the activity across much of the region until the next shortwave, which is developing the current convection over S IL and S IN, arrives around dawn. With the warm front still south of the area, the atmosphere over the region is relatively stable and is working hard to weaken any convection. NAM is probably overdoing the strength of the shortwaves, but the timing is reasonable. Two more shortwaves will cross the area today, one this morning and then a second this afternoon. This will keep in the threat for showers and storms through much of the day and will also help to drive the surface warm front to the north, thus destabilizing the atmosphere as the day progresses. The afternoon shortwave will ride right along the northward moving boundary and may provide a real shot at seeing strong to severe storms. Hires models are hinting at the potential of a squall line developing with the afternoon wave. With the warm front drifting northward today, there will be a wide range of temperatures from north to south. The north will remain in the cooler and less humid air, while the south, generally south of PIT, will see warm temperatures and rising humidity levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Periodic condition deterioration to MVFR/local IFR is expected later this evening and overnight as a cluster of showers and thunderstorms move along an approaching warm front. Low level jet and shortwave support should result in additional showers/thunderstorms overnight through early Saturday morning. Scattered showers/storms are possible through the day Saturday as the front stalls in the vicinity, though better upper support is progged to shift N of the area. Will mention VCSH in the TAFs for now. A period of MVFR ceilings are expected by Sat morning also, with improvement from S-N by afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible through Sun in vicinity of a surface front. Restriction are likely with a strong cold front Sunday night and Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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