Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220509 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1209 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS COLD FRONT ON CHRISTMAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... CLDS ARE EXPD TO GRDLY INCR LT TNGT INTO MON IN WRM ADVCTN. A WK SFC LOW ADVNG UP THE E COAST COULD BRING SOME PCPN AS FAR W AS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES THIS AFTN...THOUGH EVE UPR AIR CHARTS AND MESO ANALYSIS INDICATE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS PCPN SHOULD RMN E OF OUR AREA. IF PCPN DOES RCH THESE LOCATIONS...A BRF PD OF FRZG RAIN IS PSBL AS TEMPS THERE RMN BLO FRZG IN COLD AIR DAMMING. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TEMPS SHOULD RCH JUST ABV SEASONAL LVLS TDA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE HELP OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET BY LATE WEDNESDAY. EARLY ON...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT WE WILL SEE ON TUESDAY...AS WE WILL BE PARKED IN BETWEEN THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM...AND THE DEEPENING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. IN ADDITION...S-SE WIND SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGES IN PA/WV. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO STAY WITH THE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHS AND HELPS TO PULL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD. WITH THE NEARLY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN TO BE AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOOD THREAT FOR THE PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH THE MID 50`S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CDFNT PASSAGE WILL INITIATE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ON CHRISTMAS...BUT LACK OF DEPTH TO THE COLD LYR...DRY ADVCTN IN THE MID LVLS ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF NWD DIGGING UPR LOW...AND RAPIDLY ENSUING WARM ADVCTN WL ENSURE A LACK OF SNOW COVER FOR CHRISTMAS. THE RMNDR OF THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH A LATE WEEK COOLING TREND AS MDLS PROG A REAMPLIFYING FLOW PTN WITH ERN CONUS TROFFG. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD AS SLY FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES OVR LINGER SFC HIGH PRES. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MIDWRN LOW PRES WL SPREAD RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS OVR AREA PORTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIATED LTR ON THURSDAY WITH DRY SHRTWV RIDGING. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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