Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200237 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 937 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will return to the region late tonight and Friday as the next upper level system moves through. The mild pattern continues through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Plume of moisture and lift associated with approaching shortwave and warm front will provide for a period of rain across the region overnight into Friday. With good model consensus, have made very little change to the PoP forecast. Only adjusted the timing slightly based on the latest hi res model guidance with a period. While temperatures have fallen off a bit with the help of some clearing/thin cirrus, this should be stifled as thicker clouds spread northward. Also, while some of the observations in these areas are now near freezing, these values are likely to warm before precipitation occurs, especially as the rain encroaches on the dry air that is currently present in the 00z PBZ sounding. Rain will shift northeastward Friday afternoon, with above average temperatures expected, despite persistent cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Although different models show isolated showers through this period, have decided to go with a dry forecast Friday night and Saturday, and chance pops Saturday night since there should not be much to provide any sort of organized lift. This should be the warmest stretch of the forecast, with lows only dropping into the 40s and many locations reaching the 60s on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A strong upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Sunday and track eastward into early Monday, before turning toward the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. While the GFS and ECMWF keep the surface low moving along the Atlantic coastline, the NAM keeps the surface low as far west as Kentucky, and have not used the NAM during the early part of the extended forecast. The GFS and ECMWF are trending farther east with the track of the system, and while they are in good agreement, this track may result in the widespread precipitation shield also being farther to the east. Nevertheless, have still kept likely pops in the forecast for now from Sunday through Monday night. After a brief break in precipitation Tuesday, GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing low pressure moving across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, and have gone with chance pops. Although temperatures will be lower with multiple storm systems, the forecast remains well above normal warmth. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clouds continue to erode westward this eve. A period of VFR will prevail at most, if not all, of the sites where this has occurred, with low clouds unlikely to return until the precipitation reaches the region in the early morning. After this time, conditions should return to low mvfr/ifr with the passage of the shortwave and a deep inversion likely to keep low clouds overhead until the afternoon. Wind will be ese, gradually veering to wsw as the day progresses. A brief period of LLWS is possible as wind just above the surface will just meet criteria. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely to continue through Friday night with the passage of low pressure, and will return again on Sunday with the approach of another system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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