Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 311333 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 933 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 930AM UPDATE. PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH CU RULE INDICATING SCT DIURNAL CU. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...THOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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