Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192126 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 526 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will continue into the weekend. Thunderstorm chances will escalate on Thursday and continue periodically as a series of disturbances crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Two very weak areas of convective development exist early this evening. The first is up along I-80, where the southern periphery of some lift from a short wave trough passing Lake Erie is interacting with the higher dewpoints and increased instability south of the lake and away from the lake breeze. The second is along the I-70 corridor, where the remnants of the front from the last several days continues to allow for pooling of higher low level moisture content air. This is locally increasing instability here. Neither area is impressive, and both should fade quickly in the diurnal downturn cycle. With elevated dewpoints across the board and little incoming cloud cover, localized fog will again be possible tonight. This may well be the last night before the quiescent period of the forecast ends. Fries A shortwave tomorrow will bring greater coverage of precipitation than has occurred over the last few days. Have slowed down precipitation by a few hours with the shortwave delayed in its arrival. This should keep the bulk of showers and storms to the northwest of the region during the daytime hours. High temperatures will likely creep a degree or two higher from today`s values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Thursday evening should be the primary time period for any potential severe weather, and the majority of the forecast area remains in a slight risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The delayed arrival time may diminish the local chances for severe weather with less instability present. Next shortwave passing through should favor southern counties, and have maintained chance pops everywhere Friday and Friday night. Deterministic and ensemble models have come into better agreement for timing/placement of showers/storms with a shortwave Saturday and Saturday night, and have continued likely pops through the time period. Temperatures will remain above normal, but begin to drop slightly. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Likely pops should linger into Sunday, but overall coverage of precipitation should begin to decrease as additional shortwaves cross the region while the upper level pattern shifts over the eastern United States from a ridge to a trough. As the trough shifts east by Tuesday, conditions should begin to dry out from the unsettled pattern. There is high confidence that next Wednesday will be dry across the entire forecast area, something that has not occurred in several days. High temperatures will also drop below normal by the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... General VFR conditions forecast through the evening with scattered-broken cumulus. Isolated showers/storms should remain north of PIT, and handled with VCTS at FKL/DUJ. Tonight appears a bit more favorable for fog, and have a period of MVFR/IFR at most terminals. VFR after 13Z as fog lifts, with any organized convection likely holding off until after 18Z. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions appear likely later Thursday afternoon and evening with an organized line of convection. Additional rounds of storms are expected through the weekend, and morning fog is possible as well. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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