Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180538 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1238 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday. The next chance for rain is expected with a warm front Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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No major updates needed early this morning as the ongoing forecast is on track. Previous discussion follows... Previous... The remaining stratocu and flurries should continue to slowly erode tonight as an upper trough exits, low level ridging builds, and winds back to the SW. A few mid and high clouds could cross the area overnight in warm advection. Should see most temperatures become steady after the initial drop this evening as the warm advection begins and winds remain sufficient to preclude widespread decoupling. The wind and cold temperatures should result in advisory level wind chills in the higher terrain of WV and MD. Maintained the wind chill advisory there. Otherwise, lows in the single digits are expected, with some of the coldest locations just below zero.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A return to zonal flow or even ridging aloft will be temporarily stunted by a fast moving shortwave trough cruising through the Great Lakes Thursday. Even still, temperature moderation is expected Thursday falling just shy of average values. Otherwise, this quick trough should result in little more than additional clouds across northern zones. Heights will then begin to build further into Friday as a very broad ridge slides eastward. Further temperature moderation is expected, and should begin to do work on the remaining snowpack. Drying and warming will carry through Saturday as trough digs into the western CONUS and we maintain zonal flow aloft. Eventually this flow will stream moisture back into the area from the west, and an increase in cloud cover is expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warm advection will strengthen through the weekend ahead of the next system approaching from the west with temperatures climbing to around 15 degrees above normal on average across the region. Increasing cloud coverage on Sunday as moisture advection ramps up...with light precipitation possible. Latest model consensus progs frontal passage on Monday afternoon...with the best chance for rain along and ahead of the cold front. Temperatures on Tuesday will lower back to near normal behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The back edge of the stratocumulus deck that has plagued most sites from FKL-PIT-MGW and points to the east is starting to erode from the west. With increasing SW flow by morning, this will continue to be the case with most sites likely going VFR and clearing out in the next few hours. MGW will likely be the last to clear. Gusty SW winds will develop on Thursday, but all sites will remain clear. Fries .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns over the weekend with approaching low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for WVZ512>514.
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