Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251337 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 937 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure will return dry, and very warm weather to the Upper Ohio Region for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The only changes needed for the mid morning update were adjustments to POPs based on the latest radar and high res trends. Previous... Upper level low pressure will continue to slowly trundle up the East Coast today. Easterly flow along the northern periphery of this system will maintain the flow of Atlantic moisture across the immediate area today. While low level flow downslopes and will remain capped via warmth aloft, light rain has formed in the mid/upr diffluence area between the flank of this system and stronger southwest flow across the lakes. That flow is expected to weaken as heights rise/high pressure builds over the Mid Ohio Valley this afternoon. Local improvement may thus be anticipated in that time frame. Temperature will vary across the seasonal averages with warmer readings west of I 79 where subsidence ensues/clouds and rain will cease first.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Quiet weather is anticipated for Wednesday and Wednesday night with surface high pressure and the passage of a mid-level ridge. Rising heights and flow turning southwest point to rising temperatures, with all locations rising well above normal, many reaching or exceeding 80 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Even warmer temperatures are expected Thursday afternoon as strong southwest flow should efficiently mix down +18C 850 mb temperatures to get many locations into the mid 80s. However, clouds will be on the increase as a shortwave trough rotates from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, pushing a boundary towards the area. Best support for precipitation will lies from Pittsburgh on northwest, where likely PoPs were maintained. Instability and shear levels point to a few strong storms, but not expecting a widespread severe threat at this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure in broad SW flow aloft may provide a relatively dry Friday with cooler but still above-normal temperatures. Rain chances increase into the weekend as a trough deepens over the Rockies and the Plains, with embedded shortwaves providing some rounds of rainfall. Rising heights will lead to a slow warmup back into the 80s by Sunday. The trough may eject Sunday night/Monday and push a fairly strong cold front our way by Monday. With a negative-tilted trough and and moist SW flow, we will need to monitor the severe risk from this system over the next several days. Dry and cooler weather follows this system. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions through most of the day as mid-deck shield will continue to blanket the region. The exception will be at DUJ, which will see lower moisture spill over the ridges in easterly flow, causing a reduction to MVFR. LBE could also see a reduction to MVFR cigs. Models are indicating another round of light showers crossing the area late tonight and during the morning hours. Light easterly winds will increase later this morning, with gusts of 20 to 25kts possible. By late in the forecast period, all ports are expected to see MVFR restrictions, as the continued easterly flow pushes low- level moisture further west. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with late week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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