Area Forecast Discussion
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619 FXUS61 KPBZ 201812 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 212 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and storms, mainly southwest of Pittsburgh, will end this evening. Thereafter, warm and humid conditions will continue into early next week, with little to no chance of rain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A shortwave trough continues to drop over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Weak support for lift from this, plus some marginal instability, is supporting scattered showers from Pittsburgh on southwest. Still can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two, although the more favored location for these will be south of the CWA. This pattern will continue through sunset, after which activity will peter out with the loss of heating. Most of the cumiliform clouds will fade away as well during the evening. A round of fog seems likely overnight with light winds and fairly juicy dewpoints, with the valleys most likely to see significant visibility reduction. Above normal temperatures were forecast, using a bias-corrected model blend.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As the shortwave pulls away, upper level ridging will become firmly entrenched across the the eastern U.S. in response to western troughing, save for coastal New England where Jose will continue to linger. Dry weather and further warming are thus forecast, with high temperatures climbing into the middle and perhaps upper 80s by Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Little change is foreseen in the overall circulation pattern through at least Tuesday, with the western trough/eastern ridging pattern persisting. By early next week, some models suggest that Hurricane Maria may track near the Atlantic seaboard. Moisture on the very outer periphery of the circulation may get pushed into our higher elevations on easterly flow by Tuesday, resulting in some light showers. Will add a slight chance PoP to the grids for this possibility into Wednesday. The upper ridge may start to be knocked down by and approaching Upper Midwest shortwave by the end of the period, but any frontal precipitation may not arrive until after Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered showers this afternoon will primarily affect ZZV, HLG, and MGW. An isolated shower could make its way into BVI/PIT/AGC, but did not have enough confidence to include in the TAFs. Showers should end along diurnal trend with mid level clouds clearing out as well. With skies clearing out overnight, expect that we should be back into the fog regime. Dropped all sites down to IFR visibility, and expect that multiple sites will likely bottom out at 1/4 mile, but this could be dependent on how showers play out this afternoon. .Outlook... Other than local morning fog, no widespread restrictions expected through Mon with building ridging. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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