Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221539 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1039 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mild weather and rain will dominate the first half of the week. Seasonal temperatures can be expected for the second half.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Near term adjustments for the late morning update included timing and coverage changes to precip probs given the latest radar trends. Otherwise, expect rain to develop over the region as deepening low pressure emerges from the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Forecast confidence remains hampered as model depictions of the cutoff low pressure set to dig toward the Upper Ohio Region, have again deviated from previous days solutions with a southward track of the center. Nevertheless, increasing ascent via deformed flow and warm advection with increased moisture through the mid levels all support categorical precip probabilities into Monday. With the northern branch of split flow holding colder air north and west of the region, and with warm advection into the mid levels of the cutoff, this still looks to primarily remain a rain event, although the NAM, and to a much lesser extent the GFS, continue to develop sub-zero air over the region at the 850mb level despite moist advection and an otherwise warm column. This could be due to dynamic cooling depictions as the low deepens. Have decided to hedge toward this potential and have thus introduced a rain/snow mix mainly for the elevations later on Monday and into Monday night, then moreso into Tuesday as colder air briefly wraps into the departing system. Any snow is not expected to be problematic given the warm boundary layer and eventual progression. QPF was progged using a RFC/WPC blend for the period. On the order of a half, to one inch of rainfall is anticipated. Relative warmth will continue, although the diurnal temperature spread will be restricted by clouds and precip.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The long term period will feature a change to more seasonal weather as shortwave ridging in advance of plains low pressure initially moderates the temperature once again, before that systems cold front drives them back toward, and then below the averages during the latter half of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected today with mid clouds ahead of approaching low pressure. The approaching low should result in deterioration to MVFR with rain tonight. Increasing E winds are expected especially tonight with an increasing pressure gradient. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Tuesday with slow moving low pressure, and again with a Thursday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/07

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