Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 292141 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 541 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT IS FINALLY TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY EXTREMELY DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE DRY SLOT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DID DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...HOWEVER SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING THIS CUMULUS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE SUN SETS. AS SUCH...SOME AREAS MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE MORE COHERENT CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FINALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST. TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND 15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM. WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S. MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. USING A BLEND OF LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST INTO THE VFR CAT AS LARGE STRATOCU DECK DESCENDS OVER THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH FKL AND DUJ INTO THE MVFR CAT WITH THE CLOUD DECK. COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.