Area Forecast Discussion
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318 FXUS61 KPBZ 241733 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 133 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very-humid conditions over the region today with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The overall forecast appears on track, with showers and storms forming along and ahead of an advancing cold front. This convection should shift ewd with time this afternoon. In the wake of the front, steepening low-level lapse rates are supporting abundant stratocu, which will persist into this evening before clearing by morning amid broad subsidence. Previous discussion follows... Another shortwave trough sweeps through this afternoon which will keep in the risk for showers and storms. Coverage of the activity looks to be limited as the strongest large-scale ascent will be well to the north of the region, and drier air aloft will continue to mix to the surface, limiting surface instability. The passing wave also will provide a generous cu field, which will help to keep temperatures below normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper-level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface high will build into the Great Lakes. This evolution finally will bring a stretch of dry weather and sunshine for Tues/Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A deep upper trough and associated surface cold front will settle south from Ontario on Thursday, bringing the threat for showers/storms during the afternoon and evening. The forecast for Friday into the weekend gets a bit muddy. If the aforementioned wave progresses into the Southeast, then the weekend is shaping up to be spectacular, with dry conditions and highs around 80. Some model solutions open the upper wave up across the Appalachians, keeping the threat for clouds and precipitation (especially over the eastern ridges) into Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Broken line of showers and thunderstorms on a line from KDUJ- KBTP- KZZV. MVFR cieiling across the areas today. The slow moving boundary will sag south today. By evening VFR condutions through over the area. Lingering low level moisture may produce some restrictions in the earling morning hours Tuesday. Otherwise VFR condiutions through Wednesday .OUTLOOK... VFR is expected to prevail toward midweek as high pressure builds in.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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