Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230209 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 909 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather can then be expected until the approach of the next front on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Low-level flow is beginning to lose its northerly component. This is begun to lessen the lake-induced influence over the low levels of the environment from west to east progressively. As a result, low clouds are starting to break up over central Ohio with this breakup moving eastward slowly into eastern Ohio. In fact, even an appreciable hole is noted over and just north of Pittsburgh on GOES-16 imagery. Both the back edge of low clouds and holes in the low clouds will combine to allow for a general reducing in clouds over the next several hours with most areas trending relatively clear overnight. The slow trend toward clearing overnight along with dewpoints in the lower to mid 20s should keep temperature readings from going into free fall overnight. As such, the ongoing forecast for lows generally in line with current dewpoint readings seems plausible and will be left unchanged. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure building in at the surface will lead to a tranquil Thanksgiving and Friday. Troughing aloft will keep cool conditions in place, but some temperature moderation is expected with increased sunshine. By Friday, highs should be back in the ballpark of average values. The next high-latitude system will stream through northeast Ontario early Saturday. This will eventually sweep another relatively dry cold front through the forecast area. Similar to yesterday`s system, the moisture starved cold front will result in light rain, but higher PoPs will be confined to the northern half of the area. Behind the front, northwest flow gets established, bringing the possibility of backlash, lake-effect snow showers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad troughing will briefly carry into early next week. Eventually, the strong southwest CONUS ridge will dislodge and move eastward. This will bring our area another round of tranquil weather Tuesday with a warming trend towards the middle of next week. Substantial timing disagreement exists for the next disturbance middle to late next week, so broad low chance PoPs were maintained. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR and borderline MVFR will prevail in stratus for a few hours before dissipating rapidly under backing flow and building high pressure. Biggest change from the previous TAF issuance was to slow to improvement to VFR/eliminate ceilings. Expect high clouds ahead of the next shortwave trough to pass overhead tomorrow with no further restrictions expected. NW wind will shift to w-sw tomorrow and remain under 10kts. .Outlook... The next chance for restrictions is forecast with a Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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