Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280755 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 355 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN. WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED. TAX && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN. TAX && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME. CL .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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