Area Forecast Discussion
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850 FXUS61 KPBZ 070847 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 347 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON MONDAY. THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKC TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLE. CL .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A PASSING SYSTEM. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...MEANING STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOME RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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