Area Forecast Discussion
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741 FXUS61 KPBZ 280930 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 530 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather today. An approaching front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the area late this week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minor changes to hourly sky and temps based on observations and near term models. Previous...Dry weather and mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure slides across the region. High temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below the seasonal average. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Some increase in cloud cover is expected tonight in warm advection ahead of an approaching shortwave as the high exits the Mid Atlantic coast. This wave is progged to track across srn Ontario and NW PA Thu, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing mainly near and N of I 80. Shear is progged to increase, though unfavorable lapse rates and instability should limit any significant severe weather potential. Another, weaker shortwave is progged to take a similar track early Friday, maintaining precip chances. Shortwave ridging behind the second wave should result in limited shower and thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon despite building instability. Warm mid levels should also help limit convection. Maintained low chc POPs Friday night with another weak shortwave ahead of an approaching Midwestern upper trough. A return to above average temperatures is expected by Thursday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The Midwestern upper trough is progged to advance E Saturday driving a cold front across the area. Dry weather is expected to return Sun/Mon as surface ridging builds underneath the upper trough. Another trough is progged to advance E from the Midwest and Plains regions Tue, though with uncertainty in timing and location limited POPs to the chance category for now on the 4th of July. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR through the forecast period. .OUTLOOK... Restriction chances will increase during the latter half of the week with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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