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000
FXUS66 KPDT 192230 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
330 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PACNW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING IN THE
SKY COVER OVER CENTRAL OREGON TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSRA. OTHERWISE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING.

THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW BEFORE
MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS.

THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. BY
SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOST OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BE DRIER WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN
SYSTEMS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.  BY SUNDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT A NEGATIVE TILT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON ON SUNDAY EVENING.  AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES DOWN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY ONWARD...RIGHT NOW MODELS HOLD THE LOW OFF THE
SEATTLE...VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARE...THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO BUILD A FOUR CORNERS HIGH TOWARDS
THE MID WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES UP AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DOWN.  GFS MODEL HAS THE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OVER THE CENTER
OF THE US...AND THE RIDGE IS LESS AMPLIFIED.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MILDER AND POSSIBLY MOISTER EXTENDED...WITH BOTH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  CONFIDENCE IN TUESDAY ONWARD FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY LOW FOR BOTH THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.
WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS PROVIDING BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS. FOR THE MOST PART TAF SITES
CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BUT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE RULED
OUT AND WILL LIKELY BE ON AND OFF AT KPDT...KALW...KRDM...AND KBDN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS UNTIL 05Z. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS GUSTING
TO 30 KTS...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT KDLS AND
KPDT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
AFTER 06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KYKM...KRDM...AND KBDN WHICH WILL
DROP BELOW 10 KTS.  WINDS WILL PICKUP AGAIN AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AND
BE GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. SHOWERS VCSH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW FOR MOST TAF SITES.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  66  46  67 /  40  40  30  30
ALW  51  66  50  68 /  50  40  30  40
PSC  52  69  51  71 /  40  40  30  30
YKM  50  67  48  69 /  40  40  30  30
HRI  51  69  50  71 /  40  40  30  30
ELN  52  64  49  68 /  40  40  30  40
RDM  35  65  36  67 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  44  61  43  61 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  39  61  38  61 /  50  30  20  20
DLS  52  69  52  71 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/89/89