Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 300911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE CWA ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT AND THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY WILL BECOME SHOWERY CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
THE OTHER IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE CWA WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DO REACH 30 MPH WITH
GUTS 40 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. COOLER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.  WEAK RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY.  BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.  GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA.
OVERALL BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.  ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500
FEET COULD REACH OR FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  WHILE IT MAY BE
THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING
EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A
FREEZE.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  70  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  69  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  72  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  68  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  70  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  69  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  72  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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