Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 262220
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPTATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPTATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KYKM AND KPSC. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE TAF
SITES REMAINED ENGULFED IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER
12Z...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO SCOUR OUT
THE FOG AT KPSC...BUT CONDITIONS AT KYKM COULD REMAIN POOR. AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 5-15 KTS.  82


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  59  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  41  54  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  37  59  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  45  52  42  49 /  20  20  30  70
GCD  44  54  43  49 /  10  20  30  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82








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