Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 270156 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 956 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure anchored over the Mid-Atlantic States will move offshore this weekend as a low pressure system moves northwest toward the southeast coastline. By Monday, a cold front will move southeast into the Great Lakes then into our region by the middle of the week. A low pressure system will continue to linger off the southeast coastline through most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure located off the coast will continue to influence our weather even as a mid level short wave trough approaches from the west this evening. The feature is expected to flatten during the night as it reaches our forecast area. A deck of mid-level cloud cover should keep temperatures from dropping below the 60s in most spots as well as limit the extent of the fog development overnight. Scattered convection was developing over West Virginia, western Virginia, and western and central Pennsylvania at mid afternoon in advance of the mid level short wave. The precipitation was drifting eastward. It is not expected to begin moving into our northwestern counties until after dark. The loss of daytime heating should cause the convection to weaken to scattered light rain showers which should dissipate in our region during the night. We have confined the chance of precipitation mainly to our counties in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.
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&& .SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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High pressure off the coast will continue to draw very warm and increasingly humid air into our region on Friday. Early morning mid level clouds should dissipate with cumulus expected to develop for the afternoon. A pool of instability is anticipated to form over central Pennsylvania with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in that area. The convection should drift eastward into our forecast area during the afternoon. We will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly for our counties in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. PoPs were lowered a bit with the 930 PM ESTF update as it appears that models, in particular the NAM/GFS, are overdoing the low-level moisture/instability and thus convective potential. There also doesn`t appear to be much organized lift present across the area until perhaps a shortwave trough approaches from the west toward sunset. Friday will be another very warm day with temperatures approaching 90 degrees in much of our region.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Saturday through Sunday Night: High pressure will be firmly in place over the region. Subsistence from the high pressure will prevent normal pop-up afternoon thunderstorm formation both days except in the higher terrain areas in the Southern Poconos and NW NJ. A gradual tick upward with humidity is expected, making it feel even more like summer. High temperatures will likely be a couple degrees warmer than met/mav with overnight lows climbing due to the increased humidity. Memorial Day: A low pressure system is likely to be located just off the Southeast United States coastline. With a broad mid-level ridge just offshore moisture is likely to be transported northward along the eastern seaboard. Some uncertainty is present with this low potentially become tropical. The National Hurricane Center currently has a 70% chance of this forming into a sub-tropical or tropical system between today and early next week. While any tropical impacts would be well south of the region, the moisture interaction with lift along an approaching cold frontal boundary. This will lead to a good chance of showers and thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall threat. PW values are also modeled to approach 2 inches along with a modeled long-skinny CAPE profile both also suggesting the prospects for heavy downpours with thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be kept down as well due to cloud cover and thunderstorms. Monday night through Tuesday night: The cold frontal boundary will likely continue to be close to the region and serve as a focal point for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially moving through by Tuesday. With the more scattered coverage of the showers and storms, daytime temperatures will rebound a bit on Tuesday after a muggy start. Wednesday and Thursday: Another low pressure system and cold front will move into the Central Plains with our region in the warm sector with high pressure to the northeast. However, mid level temperatures look cooler than with the warm-up this weekend. Forecast close to WPC guidance.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through 0800z before patchy fog may develop toward daybreak in the favored rural/fog-prone terminals. A deck of mid level clouds is forecast to be overhead from the overnight hours into early Friday morning. There is the potential for some MVFR visibility restriction around daybreak. Mainly VFR conditions are expected for Friday. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact the area around KRDG and KABE in the afternoon. A southwest to south wind around 5 to 10 knots into this evening should become light and variable for tonight. The wind should settle into the south on Friday at speeds near 10 knots. OUTLOOK... Friday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, southerly winds 5-10 knots with gusts around 15 knots Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorms possibile for KABE. Sunday night through Monday night: MVFR/IFR ceilings possibile. Periods of showers and thunderstorms, the highest chance of thunderstorms is on Monday. Southerly winds up to 15 knots. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, winds under 15 knots. An isolated thunderstorm is possibile.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southerly flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Friday. Wind speeds will favor the 10 to 15 knot range. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be around 2 to 3 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Seas will remain from from three to four feet. Some southerly wind gusts around 15 mph are possible from Sunday through Tuesday in the afternoons. RIP CURRENTS: We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents, with potential near moderate risk along northern ocean county and monmouth county this afternoon where the southeast southeast wind may be a little stronger. Since it will be another very warm day, and many if not all beaches are unguarded, swimming is not advised. yesterday there was a fatality nearby just to our north. Fatalities can easily happen at unguarded locations. water temperatures are not especially warm...close to 60F which is near or slightly below normal. If going to the beach today...be safe.
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&& .CLIMATE... The Philadelphia monthly average temperature continues to project only about 1f below normal... with this current end of the month stretch of above normal temperatures denting the first 24 days, nearly 4 degree below average. Precipitation amounts with respect to May look somewhat uncertain based on how much tropical moisture enters the region on Monday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Gaines/Robertson Near Term...Klein Short Term...Iovino/Klein Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Iovino/Klein Marine...Gaines/Iovino/Klein Climate...Drag

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