Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 242145 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 545 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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This weekend, a high pressure system will build over the region. A frontal system will move through our area by mid week. A high pressure system will build over our region later in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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The remaining showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western and southern parts of our forecast area will dissipate during the early evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. The developing light northeasterly flow should bring dry air into our region. However, we continue to think that low clouds and fog will form tonight in areas that received heavy rainfall today. Minimum temperatures should be mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s in most areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as well just before sunrise when higher RH values correspond with the light winds. Sunday and Sunday night: High pressure will be moving eastward and offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at actual model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer than the GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions supports the model output. Given the dry conditions from Philadelphia and points north this forecast and recent cool biases with model data, this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF. High temperatures will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the region, with the highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the cooler readings down by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a warmer and muggy night as well Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from the Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time frame. A few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely serve as triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid air mass. The most likely window for rain based on current ensemble data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday night. However, given uncertainty in timing and coverage will continue with chance pops. This will likely not dent the drought across the northern half of the region. The actual cold front will likely move through on Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass moving in behind the front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15 mph throughout the early part of the week. Wednesday night through Friday: High pressure will build southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass. Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...The showers will diminish this evening then skies will clearing from N to S. We will likely hold onto some low clouds across the srn areas. Any breaks will result in fog development across the srn areas. Low clouds could affect KPHL/KPNE and up into KTTN also. We have decided to preserve some of the earlier clouds in the fcst. The guidance doesn`t mention much in the way of low clouds, but the pattern seems to favor it. Winds tonight light from the NE or E. Sat...VFR conditions expected after any low clouds or morning fog dissipates. Winds will be east at around 10 knots by early afternoon. Outlook... Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots. Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday. Southwest winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.
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&& .MARINE...
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Onshore flow will continue tonight and Saturday with high pressure building in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms across the srn NJ and DE waters this afternoon will diminish this evening. patchy fog is possible tonight. Seas have been steady around 3-4 ft so far today and this will continue tonight. Seas will tick up closer to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still not the greatest however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and hold on the SCA flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday: Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south. RIP CURRENTS... Moderate risk for rip currents the rest of today and probably Sat also. High pressure will bring lighter winds and lowering seas Sun. Risk on Sun will likely be less than Sat.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...JJ Near Term...Iovino Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara Marine...Gaines/O`Hara

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