Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201456 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY APPROACH 9 FEET. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431-450. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI

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