Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 272238
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
638 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure across the mid- Atlantic region will
maintain generally fair and warm weather through the weekend.
Moisture from the remnants of a tropical system to our south may
reach the area by Memorial Day and interact with a weak frontal
system to produce showers and thunderstorms. More high pressure
and dry but continued warm weather are expected through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Not many changes with the 630 PM EDT update. Most of the cumulus
and showers across our region have already dissipated. However,
there remains a line of showers and thunderstorms to our west that
are slowly drifting east. At least one high resolution model shows
these showers moving into our region. However, once the sun sets,
any lingering precipitation should begin to dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating.

One note in the near term, with implications in the long term: as
of 5 PM EDT, the National Hurricane Center began issuing public
advisories for tropical depression 2 (the low off the coast of SE
U.S.). We will not be getting strong winds from this system, but
we could see moisture from the remnants of this system Sunday
night into Monday (see the long term section).

A light southerly wind is expected for tonight. Minimum temperatures
should be mostly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Another mostly sunny and very warm day is expected for Saturday.
Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be similar to those of
today.

A west to east axis of enhanced instability is forecast to develop
from central Pennsylvania across our far northern counties. We will
mention the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for that
area. The remainder of our forecast area should be rain-free.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The current summer-like weather pattern over the mid-Atlantic
region is expected to continue through the extended forecast
period. Temperatures will be somewhat above normal and
precipitation will be mainly in the form of convective rain
showers and t-storms. Surface and upper-level features affecting
the area will remain relatively weak. One uncertainty at this time
is how much effect we will see from the tropical/sub-tropical
system now off the SE Atlantic coast.

Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will dominate at the start
Sat night, with just a few evening showers possible across far N
NJ and adjacent PA. However moisture from tropical depression 2 NE
of the Bahamas is forecast to move N into the mid-Atlantic on
Sunday with an increasing chance of showers and T-storms by
afternoon. Showers and storms are forecast to continue Sunday
night into Monday as a weak frontal system moves into the area
from the NW. PWATs are forecast to be near 2 inches over the area
so some heavy downpours and possible flooding can be expected.
Clouds and precip will result in milder daytime temps on Monday.

By Tuesday somewhat drier air is expected to push in from the W
and decrease the chances for precip as an upper-level trof moves
by to the N. Daytime temps will recover back into the 80s as there
is not much change in air mass with the with the assocd surface
front. Wed and Thu should be mainly fair with high pressure
building in from the N/NE and low-level winds off the cool
Atlantic. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF suggest another frontal
system approaching from the W or NW by next Fri, with increased
chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the
exception of some MVFR visibility restrictions around daybreak on
Saturday.

Most of the showers and thunderstorm activity from earlier this
afternoon is quickly dissipating and should not affect our TAF
sites. We will keep an eye on KRDG through the evening hours as
there are still showers to the west, but those should also
dissipate after sunset.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon are
forecast to remain to the north of our TAF sites.

A southwest to south wind around 6 to 10 knots this afternoon is
anticipated to decrease to 6 knots or less for tonight. The
southwest to south wind at 6 to 10 knots is expected to return for
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, except
MVFR possible Sunday night thru Monday night in showers and
T-storms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southerly
flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight
and Saturday. Wind speeds will favor the 10 to 15 knot range. Wave
heights on our ocean waters should be around 3 feet. Waves on
Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less.

OUTLOOK...

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during the
Sunday thru Wednesday time frame. Poor visibility is possible
Sunday night through Monday night in showers and thunderstorms.

RIP CURRENTS: There remains a moderate risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents along the Monmouth County coast into this
evening due to a strengthening southerly flow. The risk will remain
low for the rest of our coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Allentown fell just shy of the record high of 91 (set in 1991 and
1965), as they got to 90 today. Much of the region has already
begun to cool off, so no record highs are anticipated today.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...AMC/Johnson
Near Term...Iovino/Johnson
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Iovino/Johnson
Marine...AMC/Iovino
Climate...Johnson



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