Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 222346
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
746 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the upper Ohio Valley this evening will
move into our region late tonight and slowly exit off the
Delmarva coast Wednesday afternoon. Canadian high pressure
builds into the region on Thursday and should continue to be the
primary influence on our weather into early next week. Two low
pressure systems should be near the Gulf coast states this
weekend and eventually turn northeast early next week, possibly
affecting our weather around Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire at 8:00 PM.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464 is in effect until midnight for
all our eastern Pennsylvania counties except Delaware and
Philadelphia, as well as the New Jersey counties of Sussex,
Warren, Morris and Hunterdon.

Showers and thunderstorms were in the Susquehanna River Valley
and down into western Maryland around 7:30 PM. The convection
will continue to progress eastward.

Mixed layer CAPE values remained in the 1500 J/kg range in
advance of the showers and thunderstorms with a favorable amount
of shear, as well. The greatest potential for severe weather in
our region remains in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New
Jersey.

The convection is forecast to weaken toward and after midnight.
The sky is expected to remain mostly cloudy with perhaps some
patchy fog where any heavy rain falls.

Low temperatures are anticipated to be in the middle and upper
60s in the Poconos and far northern New Jersey and in the lower
and middle 70s elsewhere in our forecast area.

The wind should favor the southwest and west overnight becoming
northwest around daybreak with the arrival of a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Any ongoing showers and thunderstorms near the coast will
slowly move eastward towards the waters through the afternoon as
the cold front continues its surge eastward. Humidity should
fall to more comfortable levels later in the day, more so by
evening as a secondary front pushes through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: a -2SD trough begins the long term period in the Great
Lakes region, then weakens slightly as it moves into the
northeast Friday- Monday. Thereafter, we will monitor the
northeastward progress of what should be a split flow low of
tropical origins, having moved ashore along the Gulf Coast by
early next week.

Temperatures: Calendar day averages Thursday...near or slightly
below normal, then 2 to 6 degrees below normal daily Friday-
Tuesday.

Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of 12z/22 GFS/NAM MOS was used
Wednesday night-Thursday night, then the 12z/22 GFS MEXMOS was
applied Friday and thereafter the 15z/22 WPC D4-8 gridded
elements of max/min T, 12 hr POP 6 hrly dew/wind/sky.

Wednesday night...Fair and more seasonable with light wind and
possible patchy countryside fog.

Thursday...Scattered light showers possible late Thursday in e
PA with considerable afternoon cloudiness.

Friday-Monday...High pressure shifts southeastward into the
Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday,then eastward into
southeastern Canada/Northeast U.S. Sunday and Monday. This
expansive high will control our regional weather pattern across
the Mid Atlantic during this time. The trough aloft could result
in a shower north of I-78 Friday afternoon and there should be
considerable cloudiness at that time. Otherwise, for now, good
weather is predicted.

Tuesday...WAA overrunning clouds, if not rain, from a potential
tropical remnant moving northeastward from the Gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Conditions were VFR at our TAF sites around 2330Z. Showers and
thunderstorms will move across our region between 0000z and
0400Z with lingering showers anticipated late tonight into
perhaps Wednesday morning.

Conditions will vary between VFR and MVFR overnight, with
clearing and VFR conditions expected for Wednesday.

A southwest wind around 8 to 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots
is expected to become west at 5 to 10 knots overnight, then
northwest at 5 to 10 knots for Wednesday.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR except possible mvfr or ifr fog patches
toward dawn Thursday with nearly calm wind.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR. Generally light winds from the N
or NW, possibly becoming N-NE on Saturday and Sunday. small
chance of a light shower vicinity KABE/KTTN/KRDG Thursday
afternoon and Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Strengthening southerly flow is allowing seas to gradually
build, which should peak around 3 to 6 feet across the ocean
waters and 3 to 4 feet across the Delaware Bay. Strongest gusts
are expected this evening around 25-30 kt, and will gradually
diminish overnight. Seas will gradually subside into Wednesday
as a cold front moves through the area and the pressure gradient
begins to subside.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight
into tomorrow afternoon. These storms may locally reduce
visibility and produce wind gusts to near gale-force.


Outlook...
Wednesday night through Saturday...Winds and seas below SCA
criteria.

Sunday...For no SCA headline but chance that northeast flow
will increase and cause hazardous seas to develop along the S NJ
and DE coasts Sunday (5 feet).


RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches this
evening. If swimming in the waters the remainder of today, use
extra caution and common sense. Swim only in the presence of
lifeguards, and do not swim alone! Heed any and all restrictions
by area beach patrols.

Outlook for Wednesday... Low risk, possibly bordering moderate
based on what develops this evening for residual effects
carrying into Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Atlantic City and Allentown were within 2F of record today.
Around 91F for a max T.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...99
Long Term...Drag
Aviation...Drag/Iovino
Marine...Drag/99
Climate...Drag



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