Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KPHI 221548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO THE WATERS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY
E PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND OVER THE FAR UPPER
DELMARVA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET. THE
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.