Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 291326 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 926 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 930 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AT THIS TIME, BUT ANTICIPATE THE SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY RELATIVELY SOON. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION. THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS. THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT. THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS. MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS, MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX. TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE. MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE. && .MARINE... NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. OUTLOOK... SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA. && .RIP CURRENTS... RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...

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