Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 230151 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL. WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, LOWER ON SHOWERS. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA

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