Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 260208 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 908 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of the strong cold front moving through our region Saturday afternoon, cooler air will settle in over the region. High pressure then builds south of the region on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday. Low pressure approaching from the west will lift a warm front through the region on Tuesday. The aforementioned low will propagate from the Great Lakes region into eastern Canada. The associated cold front will move through Wednesday night or Thursday. A quick moving low pressure system will slide over the Mid Atlantic at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The cold front has moved offshore and the strong convection that was associated with it has moved offshore as well. There still remains some isolated/scattered showers developing across central/southern New Jersey as well as Delaware and Maryland this evening. These are associated with a weak embedded short wave in the southwest flow aloft, which is creating just enough lift to interact with some left over low level moisture. This moisture should skirt off the coast in the next couple of hours, and the showers should dissipate around midnight or shortly there after. There is also some showers moving down into our area from the northwest in the west/northwest flow. These should impact the far northern portions of our area, generally I-80 northward during this evening and into the early morning hours. Temperatures are already cooling, and cooler temperatures are moving in from our west as well, so some snow showers could mix in at times across the Poconos and northwest New Jersey this evening and overnight. Otherwise we expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and gusty winds to continue through the overnight hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Surface high will move through the Southeast on Sunday, but the pressure gradient on the northeast side of the high will permit a rather breezy day across the area, especially during the morning hours. Cold air advection on the upstream side of the potent vort max moving through the area today will make for a sharply colder day. High temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal averages, or about 30 degrees colder than what we saw today. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Few changes made in the long term so as to focus on current hazards this evening. Unsettled weather pattern is on tap through the week. Monday and Tuesday are very low confidence especially with respect to precip chances. As long as the high isn`t more progressive in shifting off shore, during the day Monday should stay dry. Monday night into Tuesday there is low confidence as to the extent of rain ahead of the arrival of the warm front and with the timing of the warm front. Models have continued their run-to-run jumpiness with the timing of this front. Wednesday and Wednesday night looks to be the highest chance of precip with the region solidly in the warm sector. Thunderstorms may be possible as well if we can warm up enough to realize some modest surface based instability. Cold front still on track to move through late Wedensday night or Thursday. Once it moves through, we should see a lull in the precip, albeit a brief one. The next question will be the timing and track of a quick moving low which could move across the region Friday or Friday night. Moisture may be limited as there will be strong dry air advection behind the cold front, but there is some chance for precip around the area. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. The cold front has moved offshore and the strong storms that were associated have moved away as well. VFR conditions have returned to the TAF sites and are expected to remain VFR through the period. Scattered to broken clouds of 4,000-7,000 feet will continue tonight through tomorrow. Winds have switched to WNW with speeds 5-10 knots. The gusts have dropped off for many locations, but the gusts are expected to increase at times through the evening and early morning hours. Winds will continue to be gusty during the day tomorrow, with gusts 20-30 kts possible. Outlook... Sunday night and Monday...VFR conditions expected. Monday night through Thursday...periods of rain and showers are possible. When/if this does occur, MVFR ceilings or lower are possible. Highest chance is Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is considerable forecast uncertainty in this period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The cold front has moved offshore and the strong convection associated with it is moving away from the area. There will continue to be some isolate/scattered showers through the rest of the evening and early morning hours. Winds will increase through this evening and into the overnight hours as weak cold advection begins to take place with the the west northwest flow. It looks like we will have a 4-6 hour window overnight where winds could gust around 35 knots across the southern half of the waters. Therefore we`ve upgraded the Delware Bay and the Delaware and New Jersey coastal waters from Little Egg southward to a Gale Warning. The Small Craft Advisory north of Little Egg remains the same. Outlook... Sunday night and Monday...wind gusts to 25 kt may linger for a few hours on Sunday evening, but will be below SCA criteria for the remainder of this period. Tuesday through Wednesday...winds and seas should generally stay below SCA criteria, though wind gusts above 20kt will be possible on Wednesday. Periods of rain/showers possible, especially on Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday...Northwesterly wind gusts around 25 kt are possible
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-452>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450-451.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ Synopsis...Johnson Near Term...CMS/Robertson Short Term...CMS Long Term...Johnson Aviation...CMS/Johnson/Robertson Marine...CMS/Johnson/Robertson

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.