Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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602 FXUS61 KPHI 251935 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 335 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Our area will remain on the western periphery of an area of high pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through the end of this week into the weekend. A couple of backdoor cold fronts may approach the area from the north tonight into Thursday, then again this weekend, but both may end up staying north of the area. An area of low pressure moving into New England early next week is forecast to bring a cold front across our area around Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure located over the western North Atlantic will continue to influence our region for tonight even as a weak frontal boundary settles across New York and New England. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky with just some patches of cirrus at times. A light wind in combination with the mostly clear sky should allow temperatures to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s at most locations in our forecast area. The spread between the temperature and dew point readings should remain generally greater than 5 degrees. However, localized fog is possible but it should not be widespread or dense enough to include in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Not much change is expected in the surface pattern for Thursday with high pressure located off the coast and a frontal boundary remaining to our north. We are expecting a mostly sunny sky in the morning. A short wave trough traveling in the mid level flow is forecast to approach from the west late in the day. As a result, we should see an increase in high clouds and the development of some cumulus in the afternoon. We will maintain a low or slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and parts of the upper Delmarva late in the day. A southerly surface flow will continue to draw warm air into our region. Maximum temperatures are forecast to rise well into the 80s. A sea breeze should keep readings in the 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A summer like pattern continuing with a warm, above normal period ahead for our area for the end of the week, through the weekend, and into early next week. Also, chances of showers and thunderstorms basically each day. High pressure will remain to our east well offshore through the end of the week into the weekend, with our area on the western periphery. This will keep a southerly flow across the area. Meanwhile, ridging aloft begins to take place as well. In turn, thicknesses will rise into the weekend, helping temperatures rise well above normal. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look to be the warmest days of the upcoming forecast period. By Monday, the ridge aloft breaks down some, so the temperatures may cool down a couple of degrees. However, the ridging may return for Tuesday into Wednesday which would allow temperatures to rise a few more degrees. There will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers each day, especially during the day with afternoon heating. The best chance of shower/thunderstorm activity will be tied to individual vorticity, short wave impulses. A backdoor cold front may approach the area over the weekend, but should stay north of the area. If it does make its way into our northern areas, it could hold temperatures down on the northern side, and possibly bring a higher shower potential. But for now, we do not expect it to make its way into our area. There is some timing differences with the next actual frontal passage, with the GFS bringing the front through on Tuesday, and the ECMWF bringing the front through on Monday. We`ll keep closer to the GFS and and WPC with a late Tuesday passage. Either way, there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both days. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There could be localized light fog around daybreak on Thursday. We have mentioned the possibility of a brief period of MVFR conditions at KRDG. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to approach our TAF sites from the west late on Thursday. A west to southwest wind around 10 knots into this evening should become light and variable for tonight. The wind is forecast to settle into the south at 5 to 10 knots on Thursday. OUTLOOK... Thursday night-Monday...Generally VFR during the day through the period. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the day, which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Some fog development overnight into the morning each day. && .MARINE... High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southwest to south flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Thursday. Wind speeds of 15 knots or less are expected. Wave heights on our ocean waters should favor the 2 to 3 foot range. Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Thursday night-Monday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected. Winds may gust near 20 knots, especially Thursday night through Friday night. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Iovino/Robertson Marine...Iovino/Robertson

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