Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 011245 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 845 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT ALSO MOVES NORTHWARD. THESE TWO LOWS WILL MERGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AROUND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NOTE...WITH THE START OF NOVEMBER, THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL COUNTIES ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED THEIR FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE. NOVEMBER 1ST MARKS THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. A RATHER DYNAMIC SETUP TODAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH DAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF OF OUR COAST, AND THIS IS GENERALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO FAR. THIS ENHANCED LIFT IS EVEN RESULTING IN SOME LIGHTNING OFFSHORE OF DELAWARE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THERE. THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT ONE, THEREFORE THIS WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES SOME MORE. THEREFORE, THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE POPS DECREASE AS A RESULT. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN UP AND THE FLOW WILL RESPOND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING AND THE FLOW WITHIN THAT LAYER REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR SOME LOCAL AFFECTS SUCH AS COASTAL DELAWARE WHERE THE INITIAL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCED COMING ACROSS DELAWARE BAY. ALSO, RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW IS NORTH-NORTHEAST. OVERALL, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL FUNNELING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DOWN DELAWARE BAY. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY CONFINED AREA OVERALL FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS, WE WILL STAY WITH NO WIND ADVISORY ATTM. THE WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME THOUGH. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH IT IS UNUSUAL TO SEE WINDY OR EVEN BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS, EXPECT THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ON SUNDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN THE TWO, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS. WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35-45 KNOTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE AT THE SURFACE, AND WE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. ANY LEFT OVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PULLED TO OUR NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK, AND PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME, BUT NOT COMPLETELY. SO THERE WILL STILL REMAIN A STEADY BREEZE, BUT AS DAYTIME MIXING IS LOST, THE STRONG GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND NOSE ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A PIECE OF MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA, OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT/DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO MOSTLY OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD STREAM DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR IN THE FUTURE SO WE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO MOSTLY MVFR AT TIMES, HOWEVER THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO END FOR MOST FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS TURNING NORTHWEST, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL, WHICH MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, BUT WINDY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT ...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND UP TO 5 FEET ON THE BAY BY LATER TODAY. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY, THEN DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE AND GET CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE, AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER AN INCH, ANY RAINFALL WITH HIGH TIDE COULD EXACERBATE THE TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY FOR THE BACK BAY AREAS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE TO ASSESS THE FLOODING THREAT WITH THE NEXT HIGH CYCLE OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA. NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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