Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 300731 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 331 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region on late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The surface high will be the dominant feature for our region for most of the day. Winds will slowly shift to southwesterly through the day as the high shifts offshore. With this shift, expect moisture advection to begin, especially across the southern half of the region. As such, there is a small chance thunderstorms could begin to develop and move into Delmarva late in the afternoon. Otherwise, it should be a dry day across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move into our region (generally from the south to the north) as the upper level trough approaches (but should still remain well to the west through this period), and in the upper levels, we will be left under the right rear quadrant of a jet to start the night. Expect any precip to be mostly showers, though there is some elevated instability, especially as moisture advection continues, so expect some thunderstorms as well. The moisture advection could also result in patchy fog ahead of precip moving into the region depending on how quickly dew point temperatures recover. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of it. Instability looks decent and being the warm sector ahead of the front should allow for enough lift to allow thunderstorms to develop. The front will arrive late in the day, moving towards the coast Friday night, exiting to the east of the area overnight into early Saturday. Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across our southernmost areas. Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture increase across the region. While the majority of the area should remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south starts to lift northward as a warm front. Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather across the region through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 00Z. Winds (which should stay near or below 10 kt) will gradually shift from northwesterly to southwesterly through this time. Near the shore however, a sea breeze is expected to develop by 20Z, and move over KACY and possibly KMIV through the late afternoon hours. A quick shift to southeasterly winds will be possible with the sea breeze. After 00Z, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases from south to north (though still remains relatively small chances through the overnight hours). For now, chances are too small to include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any showers or storms move over a TAF site. In addition, patchy fog will be possible, primarily at the coastal plains TAF sites (KACY, KMIV), which could result in MVFR or even IFR visibilities. OUTLOOK... Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible early Friday. Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind around 10 knots or less. Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds becoming west to southwest. Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt. RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops. Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds. Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or stronger rip currents. OUTLOOK... Friday through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday and Monday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...Meola Aviation...Johnson/Meola Marine...Johnson/Meola

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