Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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746 FXUS61 KPHI 010128 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 928 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to our north will slowly move eastward through Sunday. Persistent low pressure to the west will weaken and move toward the Great Lakes and then toward New England by Monday, bringing its associated cold front through the area. High pressure then builds back to the north for Tuesday into Thursday with northeast flow returning once again. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast remains on track. Cloudy, damp, and cool with areas of fog and drizzle through daybreak. Area of rain over the Mid- Atlantic will slowly work its way up north, and can expect it to reach southern portions of the CWA late tonight. The Nanticoke has crested in southern DE (Bridgeton) at its highest stage since the 1990s. This will be slow to subside.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Cloudy and damp with rain likely through the afternoon on Saturday as another wave of precip tracks northward along the coast. Temps will not be quite as cool as today, about 5 to 7 degrees warmer on average. NE winds continue.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather continues for the first part of the extendd period, with improvement after that. The upper level low pres sys that has been bringing us the cloudy and wet conds for a good portion of the region will continue to move nwd and weaken through Sun into Mon. By Mon the low will be over New Eng and will have almost opened up. Until that time expect cloudy conds to continue with at least some chcs of showers. The best precip chcs look to be Sat night. and psbly Sun aftn. There cud be some breaks in the clouds on Sun. THen there cud be some more sct shwrs into Mon, especially up n with the fropa. Most of Sun and especially Mon will be dry and we will likely see some sun as conds improve, but until the upr low finally exits, there will be at least some precip chcs. Finally by Tue, high pres builds in aloft and to our ne at the sfc. This will bring more nely flow to the area, but will keep things genly dry. THe guid does want to bring some light qpf around Wed in the ne flow and its psbl, but keep things dry for now. So its a dry fcst for the remainder of the week. The guid still differs on Matthew. Most of the global mdls bring it somewhere twd the sern conus cst but then turn it newd before it gets to our area. The ECMWF is much slower keeping it over the Caribbean through the 10 day pd, in its latest run. We will continue monitoring the forecast over the next several days for adjustments to the forecast track. Please see latest NHC advisories for the latest information on Hurricane Matthew. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. IFR conditions in light rain, drizzle, and fog. Some terminals, such as KMIV/KACY could have CIGs drop to LIFR. IFR conditions continue through Saturday. Not expecting much improvement at all with periods of rain, drizzle, and fog. NE winds 10-15 KT. Occasional gusts to 25 KT through this evening. OUTLOOK... Sat night...A prolonged period of MVFR or IFR conditions with some light rain over the TAF sites through the period. Moderate confidence. Sun-Mon...Some improvement, psbly to VFR. Moderate confidence. Monday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR, however there cud be reduced cigs/vsbys as NE flow reestablishes itself, especially if there is any rain. Low to moderate confidence.
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&& .MARINE...
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Wind gusts at 44065 have dropped to 31.1 KT, and wind gusts at 44025 have dropped to 33 KT. With the trend this evening being diminishing winds, will go ahead and cancel the Gale Warning that was up for ANZ450-451, and will let the Gale Warning up for ANZ452-453 expire, as wind gusts are well below gale force over those waters. Will go ahead and hoist a Small Craft Advisory for ANZ450-453, and that will be in addition to the SCA up for ANZ454-455, and will run all SCA through 06Z Sunday. Looks like sometime either late tonight or during the day Saturday, winds will fall below SCA criteria, but seas remain around 5 feet into Saturday night. SCA in effect for DE Bay has been cancelled as well, as winds have fallen below 25 KT. OUTLOOK... Sat night...sca conds early before seas drop below. Sun-Mon night...Conditions expected to remain below SCA levels. Tue...SCA conds may return to the waters. Tue night thru Wed...SCA conds psbl. RIP CURRENTS... This mornings forecast was the last of this season. Thank you for your support, especially spreading the safety messages. We think lack of awareness of the rip currents silent danger is why so many lives are lost. For best chance of safety, swim in the presence of lifeguards. Water temps have cooled into the upper 60s to around 70. So for those who still enjoy swimming in those somewhat cooler waters... be alert for the potential strong and dangerous rips toward the end of next week as a by product of the probable distant seaward passage of Matthew, provided Matthew makes it north of Bermuda.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The heaviest rains already occurred. Southern DE...highest stream stage since 1999 occurring...the 10-14" rains were real. DOX STA has a good handle on the amounts. Legacy STP that most everyone sees is too low and I`m using for now, an 80 20 blend, weighted to the DOX STA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There was a substantial error in the Reedy Point data that temporarily misguided my actions regarding tidal flooding from upper DE Bay through the tidal DE. We now think the data is reasonably accurate there. Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for NJ and DE coasts for the evening high tide cycle. Not anticipating more than minor tidal inundation flooding, hopefully for the last high tide cycle in this particular episode.
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&& .CLIMATE... Georgetown broke its daily rainfall record with 6.52 inches. Here are today`s rainfall records. Sept 30 ACY 1.76 1964 PHL 2.41 2010 ILG 4.32 2010 TTN 1.50 1924 GED 3.15 1964 Updated this morning at 830 AM: September will be/is a top 10 warmest month through most of our forecast area, for the 3rd consecutive month! Also September will be/is enjoying a second consecutive top 5 warmest month in the period of record for PHL and ABE. We`ve run the actual numbers through the 29th, then added the forecast high/low for today. Philadelphia: The 73.5 degree average is 4.4 degrees above the monthly normal of 69.1. This will be the #5 warmest September on record for Philadelphia. Philadelphia September average temperature rankings 75.4 -1881 74.5 -2015 74.1 -1931 74.1 -1930 73.8 -2005 73.5 -2016 72.9 -2010 72.9 - 1921 Philly ranked #7 warmest July followed by a warmest ever August in the POR dating back to 1874. Atlantic City: 71.1 degree monthly average temperature, or nearly 4 degrees above the monthly normal of 67.2. This equates to an 8th warmest September in the period of record dating back to 1874. Atlantic City recorded a #7 warmest July and then a warmest ever August. 73.3 - 1961 72.8 - 1881 72.3 - 1931 and 1930 71.7 - 1921 71.6 - 2015 71.5 - 1933 71.3 - 2005 71.1 - 2016 #8 71.0 - 2010 70.6 - 2011 and 1906 Allentown: 69.1 degrees, or 5.2 degrees above the monthly normal of 63.9 and a 5th warmest September on record. Allentown ranked 8th warmest July and #2 warmest August in the period of record. 70.8 - 1961 70.3 - 1980 69.7 - 2015 69.4 - 1931 69.1 - 2016 68.7 - 2005 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...MPS Short Term...Drag Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Nierenberg/MPS Marine...Nierenberg/MPS Hydrology... Tides/Coastal Flooding... Climate...

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