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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 101443
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1043 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT OUR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, BRINGING
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY, BY WHICH POINT THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE PASSED TO OUR EAST, AND SHOULD END THE CHANCE
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
MORE THAN A DUSTING.

MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
DAY AND OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL SIT WITHIN THE "WARM" SECTOR TODAY. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE MID DECK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. A
PSEUDO-DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS EXPECTED AND COULD HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMER METMOS NUMBERS. DID
NOT WANT TO GO GANGBUSTERS GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT SEEING HOW THE
2M TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PERFORMING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND
THE LACK OF SNOW COVER LEFT IN A LOT OF OUR AREA FELT MORE
COMFORTABLE DOING SO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BUT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
STAYING CONFINED WITHIN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS
OUR REGION. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL KICK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, WITH THE WARMER
STARTING POINT, AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. A SIMPLE MET/MAVMOS
BLEND LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD WILL BE DRY AS WK HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA ON TUE. WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS
EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S WITH SOME AREAS INTO THE
60S. THIS WILL BE, BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD, SO ENJOY IT!!

AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE PLAINS AND MOVE EWD ON
TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LATEST GUID HOLDS MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WED. THE PRECIP THEN INCREASE DURG
THE DAY WED INTO WED EVE AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND STRENGTHENS.
THE ECMWF IS STILL THE STRONGEST MDL WITH THIS SYS.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK AS IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP DURG THE
DAY WED WILL BE RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS
ON WED, THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP OR A MIX OVER THE EXTREME
N AND W AT THE ONSET.

THEN WED EVE, PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE BACK OVER
TO SNOW FROM THE N AND W. THE MDLS HAVE FLIPPED TODAY WITH THE
ECMWF BECOMING THE FASTER SOLN ENDING THE PRECIP (IN LINE WITH THE
CMC) AND THE GFS BECOMING SLOWER (SIMILAR TO THE NAM/WRF). SO THE
ULTIMATE QUESTION STILL IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER
WHEN THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THE 13/12Z POSNS OF THE LOW ARE NOT
ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT THE GFS
LINGERS THE PRECIP LONGER INTO THU. HOPEFULLY, AS THE EVENT GETS
CLOSER, THE MDLS WILL BE ABLE TO WORK OUT THEIR TIMING DIFFS ON
THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP, BUT CERTAINLY THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW N AND W WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE S ON THU. AS IT DOES THE
PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN. WED NIGHT INTO THU LOOKS VERY BREEZY. THIS
COUPLED WITH COLD AIR WILL MAKE THU FEEL COLDER THAN IT ACTUALLY
IS. THU WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD BY FAR, DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

THE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD CLOSER ON FRI AND TEMPS WILL WARM AND DRY
WX IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA AND
ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT AND COULD BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS N AND W AND RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THEN DRY WX
IS EXPECTED ON SUN.

TEMPS WILL BE ON QUITE THE ROLLER COASTER THIS WEEK. FROM CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN MANY AREA ON TUE, 40S AND 50S ON WED TO NOT
GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS ON THU. A REBOUND IS EXPECTED
INTO THE 40S ON FRI, BUT STILL BELOW NRML. THEN, BACK TO NRML OR
SLIGHTLY ABV BY THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING BACKING TOWARDS
THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING....MAY BE A FEW GUSTS IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED...SOME STRATOCU
FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF ABE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DECREASE AGAIN AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THRU MOST IF NOT ALL OF TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN FOR MOST AREAS ON WED.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS SNOW OR A MIX FAR N AND W. PRECIP WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE WED NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. GUSTY
NW WINDS 25-35 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 25-30 KT
THURSDAY.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER BACK TOWARDS THE SW LATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY MID-TUESDAY MORNING AND WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SCA CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG