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914
FXUS61 KPHI 020645
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
245 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will stall out across the area today, then move
offshore and to the south on Thursday. Dry high pressure will
build into the region on Friday and remain in control through
much of the weekend, providing seasonable temperatures and
tranquil weather conditions. Warmer, more humid, and unsettled
conditions will return early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The cold front has slowed down substantially and has essentially
stalled over the I-95 corridor as of early this morning. Residual
showers continue across much of the area with a few isolated
rumbles of thunder.

As we progress through the day, the front will continue to
slowly crawl east, so with time, showers will ever so slowly
make their way toward/off the coast. Most guidance suggests
that the bulk of precipitation will be located offshore by
midday. However, with the front not entirely through the area,
areas east of the front will still have oppressive dew points
in the low to mid 70s with PWATs near 2 inches. So, with the
front virtually overhead, another round of extremely isolated pop-
up showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Any
storm sub-severe, however with the seasonably high PWATs, heavy
downpours are plausible. Skies will be mostly overcast this
morning, with gradual improvement in the afternoon from west to
east. High temps will mainly be in the 80s with the warmest
temperatures found north and west of the I-95 corridor which
will observe earlier clearing.

Any thunderstorms today will cease by sunset. Skies will become
mostly clear tonight with low temperatures in the 60s for most,
with low 70s in/around the immediate urban heat island and
along the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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A few thunderstorms possible on Thursday, then dry, seasonable,
and pleasant conditions expected for the Independence Day
holiday.

An upper trough axis will push through the region Thursday
through Thursday night followed by strengthening ridging Friday
and through the weekend. A cold front will push offshore on
Thursday, which is anticipated to be accompanied by some
isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms, mainly northwest of
I-95. There could be some isolated severe thunderstorms given
the cooling mid levels and steepening mid level lapse rates,
however widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Localized damaging wind gusts and hail possible with these
storms Thursday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper
80s, though we should finally see dew points mixing out to
relieve us from the persistent humidity we`ve been experiencing
as of late. Any thunderstorms will quickly diminish into the
evening as the front pushes offshore. Lows will be in the 60s.

For Independence Day, a rather pleasant and dry early summer
day is forecast. The strengthening ridge across the region will
inhibit any thunderstorm chances. The post frontal regime will
translate to temperatures a few degrees below normal (highs in
the low to mid 80s) and dewpoints mixing out quite nicely into
the 50s under sunny skies. A great day for any outdoor holiday
festivities! Friday night will be the coolest night of the
stretch, with low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s and dry
air making for a very pleasant early summer night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry and seasonable conditions will continue through much of the
weekend, however an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
Sunday afternoon.

The broad ridging will dominate the region over the weekend,
Which will keep convection surpressed and temperatures near
normal. Saturday will be a guarantied dry day, and another very
pleasant one similar to Friday as the surface high slides
overhead. High temperatures remaining in the mid 80s under sunny
skies and dewpoints mixing out nicely once again to provide us
with some low humidity. By Sunday, high pressure will be located
offshore, resulting in some return flow and thus a slight
increase in temperatures and humidity levels compared to the
previous days. Highs Sunday in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Lows in the 60s to near 70 degrees both nights.

The return flow beginning Sunday will open a window for some
isolated thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening hours,
mainly northwest of I-95 where some upper diffluence will begin
to influence the area. By and large, most areas should remain
dry though.

Return flow will continue into early next week as upper ridging
shifts out to sea and some troughing develops near the Great
Lakes. This will result in more unsettled conditions developing
again, with daily diurnally driven chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Any severe threats remain to be seen. Expect
temperatures to start trending slightly above normal (highs near
90 degrees and lows near 70 degrees) with increasing humidity
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...Visibility restrictions will remain possible in
residual rain showers for all terminals. Showers continue through
10-12Z. The thunder threat has diminished, so have removed VCTS
from all terminals. As of 06Z, all terminals are primarily
either MVFR or VFR, however have added in a TEMPO group between
06-10Z for most terminals where some lower ceilings may become
possible. Otherwise, light winds generally out of the westerly
direction around 5 kt or less. Low-moderate confidence overall.

Wednesday...MVFR ceilings may linger through the morning hours
for the I-95 terminals, KMIV, and KACY. Improvement to VFR is
expected at all terminals into the afternoon hours with
lingering ceilings lifting and scattering. A slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, however confidence is
not high enough to include at any terminal at this time. West-
southwest winds around 5-8 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night...VFR with a few high clouds, otherwise SKC.
Light winds favoring a westerly component around 5 kt or less.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms possible.

Friday through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms possible near ABE/RDG.
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&&

.MARINE...
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The Small Craft Advisory on the Atlantic coastal waters has been
allowed to expire/cancelled as of 2 AM as winds/seas have both
fallen below thresholds.

West-southwest winds around 10-15 kt will continue this morning,
before settling out of the south-southwest around 5-10 kt this
afternoon. Winds will gradually turn to west-northwest tonight,
while remaining around 5-10 kt. Seas of 2-4 feet. Occasional showers
and thunderstorms expected through this afternoon, before fair
weather returns tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...No marine hazards expected.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, winds go more west/southwesterly and lighten to
around 10 MPH or less. Seas decrease as well within the surf
zone to around 2 feet. There remains a 1 foot 9 second swell
from the ESE along with a frontal boundary just offshore. As a
result, we will have a MODERATE risk for rip currents on
Wednesday.

For Thursday, winds remain light around 10 MPH or less out of
the west in the morning, turning southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas decrease further, to around 1 foot. The ESE swell will be
diminishing to a 1 ft 8 second swell and the frontal boundary
will be further offshore. As a result, we have a LOW risk for
rip currents for Thursday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
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&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Gorse/MJL
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/Staarmann