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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 101923
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT OUR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, BRINGING
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL PASS TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO PASS NORTH OF
OUR AREA. IF ANYONE WERE TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION, IT WOULD BE OUR
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT WE WILL KEEP EVERYONE DRY FOR NOW.

MAV/MET MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE OVERALL, SO A BLEND OF THE TWO
WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH GIVE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE MUCH VERTICAL MOISTURE, NOR ANY STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOME CLOUD COVER, MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT, THICKNESSES WILL
RISE INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM, MAKING
TUESDAY ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS IN QUITE A LONG TIME. MAV/MET MOS
NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE OVERALL, SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS USED
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WHICH KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE OUT SOON...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD WILL BE DRY AS WK HIGH PRES
WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUE. WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYS EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S WITH SOME AREAS
INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL BE, BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD, SO
ENJOY IT!!

AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE PLAINS AND MOVE EWD ON
TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LATEST GUID HOLDS MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WED. THE PRECIP THEN INCREASE DURG
THE DAY WED INTO WED EVE AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND STRENGTHENS.
THE ECMWF IS STILL THE STRONGEST MDL WITH THIS SYS.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK AS IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP DURG THE
DAY WED WILL BE RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS
ON WED, THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP OR A MIX OVER THE EXTREME
N AND W AT THE ONSET.

THEN WED EVE, PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE BACK OVER
TO SNOW FROM THE N AND W. THE MDLS HAVE FLIPPED TODAY WITH THE
ECMWF BECOMING THE FASTER SOLN ENDING THE PRECIP (IN LINE WITH THE
CMC) AND THE GFS BECOMING SLOWER (SIMILAR TO THE NAM/WRF). SO THE
ULTIMATE QUESTION STILL IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER
WHEN THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THE 13/12Z POSNS OF THE LOW ARE NOT
ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT THE GFS
LINGERS THE PRECIP LONGER INTO THU. HOPEFULLY, AS THE EVENT GETS
CLOSER, THE MDLS WILL BE ABLE TO WORK OUT THEIR TIMING DIFFS ON
THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP, BUT CERTAINLY THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW N AND W WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE S ON THU. AS IT DOES THE
PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN. WED NIGHT INTO THU LOOKS VERY BREEZY. THIS
COUPLED WITH COLD AIR WILL MAKE THU FEEL COLDER THAN IT ACTUALLY
IS. THU WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD BY FAR, DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

THE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD CLOSER ON FRI AND TEMPS WILL WARM AND DRY
WX IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA AND
ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT AND COULD BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS N AND W AND RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THEN DRY WX
IS EXPECTED ON SUN.

TEMPS WILL BE ON QUITE THE ROLLER COASTER THIS WEEK. FROM CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN MANY AREA ON TUE, 40S AND 50S ON WED TO NOT
GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS ON THU. A REBOUND IS EXPECTED
INTO THE 40S ON FRI, BUT STILL BELOW NRML. THEN, BACK TO NRML OR
SLIGHTLY ABV BY THE WKND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
AN UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL BE OUT SOON...

PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THRU MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS ON WED. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS SNOW OR A MIX FAR N AND W.
PRECIP WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE WED NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING. GUSTY NW WINDS 25-35 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 25-30 KT
THURSDAY.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WHICH COULD HELP WINDS GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THEN BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY INTO THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
AN UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL BE OUT SOON...

PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SCA CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...ROBERTSON/NIERENBERG