Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 222023 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 423 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA. WEAKER BUT PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DAYTIME CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS WELL...AND SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COOL...WITH SOME LOW 40S NORTH/WEST AND MID/UPPER 40S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FOG...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE HOWEVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND A COMFORTABLE AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S NORTH/WEST...RANGING TO THE LOW 70S OVER NJ AND THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE GENTLE...MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN THINGS GET SMWHT MORE INTERESTING STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT FROM THE SRN END OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACROSS NRN US AND SRN CAN AND ITS PREDICTABILITY SEEMS TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT A STRONG FEATURE...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON ITS FUTURE BEHAVIOR AND ALSO ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES. HIGH PRES NOW BUILDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IS FCST TO BE REINFORCED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY... AND THEN LOW PRESSURE ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER SYS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD...SMWHT EAST OR WEST DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THE RESULT IS INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND ON- SHORE WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH FORCING FOR UVV...OR THE MAX FORCING STAYS OFFSHORE...BUT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD THRU DELMARVA INTO NJ STARTING WED OR WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. HAVE INCREASED POPS SMWHT FOR THU ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE CHANCE RANGED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR PRECIP IS GENERALLY S/E OF PHL. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST AND ALSO OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY. DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAS SPILLED SE ACROSS ERN PA...NJ...AND THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS BEEN BKN FOR THE MOST PART N/W AND SCT S/E. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BY EVENING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SKC ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU ABOUT 22Z-23Z WHEN THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF. LIGHT N OR NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TUE...VFR EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SKC AND LIGHT N OR NW WINDS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THURSDAY...CLOUDY SKIES BUT STILL MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR ACY/MIV AND AREAS S/E OF PHL. SMWHT GUSTY E TO NE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM VCNTY PHL AND SEWD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THRU 500 PM. BY THEN...WINDS GUSTS AND SEAS WILL PROBABLY BE BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO NRLY BY TUE MORNING. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SITUATION BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER FOR WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE VS ERN NJ. NOTE THE WAVEWATCH MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ON THURSDAY...BUT IT IS DRIVEN BY THE GFS WHICH HAS STRONGER SFC WINDS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF. SATURDAY...WIND/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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EARLIER REPORTS INDICATED THAT RATHER DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED OFF THE NJ COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT. DELAWARE BEACHES WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014- 024>026. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...AMC AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA MARINE...AMC/O`HARA RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA

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