Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260148 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 948 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain across the area through Sunday. A low pressure system will move across Canada early next week. It will cause a weakening cold front to cross the area Tuesday. The front will stall across the area through Wednesday. More high pressure will build over the area late next week. Another disturbance will approach the area early next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Surface High pressure remains across the region this evening. Skies have cleared out and winds have really started to lighten up so far this evening. These conditions will continue through the night. Lows will drop into the 50`s outside of the Philadelphia area, as temperatures quickly fall this evening. The Pine Barrens, Lehigh Valley and portions of North- Central New Jersey will likely see low temperatures fall a few degrees below what guidance sets such as the MET and MAV indicate based on the radiational cooling. Winds will remain light with the high pressure system over us, and as RH values increase overnight some patchy fog may form briefly just before sunrise but burn off rather quickly once the sun comes up.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The high pressure system will continue building east and out of the region by days end. As a result, winds will increase by the afternoon from a more southerly direction around 10 mph at times. Similar to today, modeled two meter temperatures and various guidance sets such as the MET and MAV will likely be to low with temperatures given the modeled boundary layer temperatures and dry conditions across northern portions of our region. The Lehigh Valley looks to be warmest, near 90 once again with the locations near the shore in the 70`s and 80`s. No precipitation is in the forecast with the high pressure system nearby. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fair weather will continue over the area Sunday night and into Monday. The upper ridge will be weakening over the area and sfc high pressure will be moving offshore. It will be a mild evening and warm day Monday with temperatures above normal. A couple tstms may develop across PA and affect the most n/w areas Mon afternoon. We just have some small pops over the srn Poconos. A period of wet weather is expected Mon night thru Wed morning. A weakening cold front will slide across the area Tue and then stall across the area Tue night and Wed. This front will serve to focus showers and sct tstms across these areas. We will mention the possibility of some heavy rain in the HWO for Tue and Tue night. Temperatures for this period will be mostly near normal with the abundant clouds expected. For Wed night into Thu...High pressure will begin to make it`s way back over the area. We will have mostly dry or slgt chc pops for these periods. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the low/mid 80s over the area. Another h5 trough will move out of Canada late next week. A cold front will move towards the area at that time. Scattered showers and tstms will develop ahead of this feature. We will have chc pops in the fcst for these periods. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight: Mainly VFR conditions across the terminals. Winds will remain calm to light. Potential for some patchy ground fog to create brief MVFR vsby restrictions between 06-10z at KRDG and KMIV. Sunday: VFR conditions expected. Light winds will continue through mid-morning, then pick up out of the south at around 10 knots or less. Outlook... Sun night and Mon...VFR. A few tstms possible far n/w Mon afternoon. Mon night thru Wed...Scattered showers and tstms with lower conditions possible. Wed night thru Thu night...Mostly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Waveheights have struggled today to reach the four to feet forecasted by wavewatch on previous cycles. Seas are currently around three feet and will remain around that level through the night with east-southeasterly winds around or under 10 knots. No headlines. Sunday: Similar to tonight, seas are expected to be around three feet through the day with winds from the southeast at around 10 knots. No headlines. Outlook... We are looking at a period of mostly sub-sca conditions on the waters this upcoming week. There will be two periods of showers and tstms which will affect local winds/seas. The first period is Mon night thru Wed and the other is Friday and into early next weekend. Seas on the ocean will be mostly 2 to 4 ft thru the period. RIP CURRENTS... Light southerly winds will continue across the waters through Sunday. We have issued a low risk for rip currents on Sunday.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Gaines/Meola Short Term...Gaines Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Gaines/Meola/O`Hara Marine...Gaines/Meola/O`Hara

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