Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 282012 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 412 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A Bermuda-high pattern will maintain warm weather with generally southwest winds over the area through Monday. Low pressure associated with Tropical Depression Two, forecast to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, should remain well to our south. However, moisture from this system will be drawn north over our area leading to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms from Sunday into Monday. High pressure with mild but drier air will build in Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Another frontal system is forecast to approach from the west late in the week bring an increased chance for afternoon/evening showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pres off the ern seaboard will continue to pump hot and moderately humid air into the region for the balance of today. Some diurnal thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain over nern PA and nrn NJ and some additional development is psbl thru sunset. However, areal coverage shud genly be confined to n of I-78. Otherwise, a warm night is in store. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sun will start out dry, but moisture assocd with what is currently Tropical Depression Two will move nwd durg the day. Acrs the srn areas, rain could move in late mrng erly aftn, but most areas will hold off until later in the aftn. Nrn areas may remain dry thru the balance of the day. Once the rain starts, it cud be hvy at times, especially acrs the Delmarva. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... It looks like the most significant weather will be occurring at the beginning of the long term period, i.e., Sunday night into Monday. At that time rather deep moisture - PWAT up to 2 inches - from current TD #2 is forecast to move across the area with widespread showers and T-storms. Although CAPE and UVV seem to be rather limited, believe some areas could see 1 to 2 inches, depending on how the convection sets up. Locally higher amounts are possible. Heaviest rain should occur overnight Sun night into Mon morning, then shift SE and gradually decrease through afternoon and evening of Memorial Day. The pattern changes some from Mon into Tue/Wed as the uppper trof currently over the central US lifts NE and suppresses the East Coast upper ridge. This results in more westerly winds and drier air. However, some remnants of the tropical circulation are forecasst to remain invof east NC through mid-week and could result in some showers well S of PHL. This is rather uncertain and is not strongly represented in the PoP/Wx grids. Surface high pressure is forecast to build SE out of Canada and across New England by Wed. This will result in onshore flow with slightly cooler (but near normal) daytime temps and somewhat higher RH. Another shortwave trof and associated frontal system is forecast to approach the area on Fri/Sat. The latest GFS and ECMWF are somewhat similar with this feature although the GFS is a bit more amplified. The forecast reflects increeased chance for showers and diurnal T-storms for this time. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conds are genly expected acrs the region durg the taf pd. The guid is split on some MVFR conds overnight into the erly mrng hours tonight into Sun, so for now am playing a more optimistic fcst. However, it is psbl that there cud be IFR conds if the more pessimistic guid is correct. Regardless, VFR conds are back after daybreak Sun. Clouds will gradually increase and lower from s to n as moisture from what is now Tropical Depression Two moves nwd. However, any rain from this sys looks to impact mainly KACY, KMIV, and KILG by 29/00Z. Wind shud be s to swly under 10 kts both today and Sun and light or calm tonight. OUTLOOK... Sunday Night and Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely in low clouds, fog, and +SHRA. Sustained winds mostly under 10 kt. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions. Sustained winds mostly under 10 kt, with some daytime gusts 10 to 15 kt. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are anticipated durg the nr and short term pds. OUTLOOK... Sub-SCA conditions are expected through early to mid-week. Some reduced VSBYs are possible in rain and fog Sun night through Mon night. && .HYDROLOGY... There is some potential for heavy rain and flooding from Sunday night through Monday. This is due to an influx of tropical moisture from TS Bonnie. PWATs are forecast to be near 2 inches, well above normal for late May. Depending on how the heavier showers and t-storms set up, some locations could receive 2 inches or more of rainfall. This may result in localized or small-stream flooding. && .CLIMATE... The monthly temperature at Philadelphia continues to project to drop down to only 1 degree below normal from the 4 below normal of several days prior to this spell of warm weather. Near record warmth anticipated this afternoon at ABE Record high 93 IN 1941 RDG Record high 92 IN 1977, 1941, 1914 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...AMC Near Term...Nierenberg Short Term...Nierenberg Long Term...AMC/Franck Aviation...AMC/Nierenberg Marine...AMC/Nierenberg Hydrology... Climate...

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