Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 030657 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING WITH ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS, OR A PERIOD OF RAIN, WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS EARLY TODAY, ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE OTHER NEAR THE COAST. THE RADAR TRENDS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RESEMBLING THIS, THEREFORE POPS WERE ADJUSTED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER REMAINS VERY NEAR THE AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. THEREFORE DID NOT ADD IN THUNDER ATTM. THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
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THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE. WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS A MID LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH TODAY...VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING, THEN LESS COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...AMC/GORSE LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

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