Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 180645 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 245 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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230 AM ESTF...DROPPED THE REMAINING FROST HEADLINE IN SE PA. EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVC. TEMPS MOSTLY 35 TO 40. ISO FREEZING TEMPS KSMQ TO KMPO SHOULD BE WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THESE PREDAWN HOURS. A LIGHT NE-E WIND CONTINUES. ELY MARINE LAYER OF HIGH RH SATURATING JUST BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2200-2400 FT. NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THURSDAY MORNING WHEN A RECORD LOW WAS SET AT ALLENTOWN PA. TODAY...FCST BASIS IS MOSTLY NAM 3RLY TEMPS AND MAX T DURING THE DAY AND THE HIGHER OF THE NCEP 3 HRLY MOS DEWPOINTS. 50 50 BLENDED SFC SUSTAINED WINDS. LOW CLOUDS RECEDE EWD AS THE BL WARMS BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE MOST OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THEN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD DURING THE AFTN. E WIND G NEAR 15 KT BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 5 PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN 2P AND 5P VCNTY PHILADELPHIA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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TONIGHT...FCST BASIS IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE COLDER OF THE LOW TEMPS NEAR 10Z/SAT. CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUD WITH A SMIDGE OF CFP CLOUD NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING TURN W OR NW LATE AT NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...CIGS 2000-2500 FT. LIGHT EAST WIND. AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD LATE THIS MORNING OR MIDDAY WITH A VFR CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN THURSDAY AND A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WIND TENDS TO TURN SE-S. TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS WITH CHC OF A SCT-BKN DECK NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (CFP). OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS 9 FT AT 44009 AT 2 AM. GFS WW4 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW BY A FOOT OR 2 ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SO HAVE RAISED THAT GUIDANCE THRU THIS FRIDAY EVENING. SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS AND HAVE CONVERTED THAT SCA HEADLINE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HERE AT THE 3 AM ISSUANCE. DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WIND G 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE WIND TURN S TOWARD SUNSET FRIDAY THEN SHIFT TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN. MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/O`HARA 245 NEAR TERM...DRAG 245 SHORT TERM...DRAG 245 LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 245 MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 245

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