Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 200525 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Jose will move northeastward through Wednesday and then stall well offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will build southward from eastern Canada during the second half of the week and then remain anchored over the region into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Dangerous surf and rip currents along with coastal flooding are the main impacts from Hurricane Jose. Hurricane Jose continues to move northward well offshore this evening. Its effects are very noticeable at the shore areas and they diminish as you proceed n/w. Showers that were across most of NJ/DE earlier have decreased to just a few patches with more spinning well offshore. Pops have been lowered for the overnight periods and cloud cover mostly unchanged with fewer clouds across the W areas attm. Low temperatures were not changed, but some edits to the hourly temps/dew points were made. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... An upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes then north of Hurricane Jose. This will weaken the steering flow and allow Jose to slow down and meander southeast of Cape Cod during Wednesday. While the pressure gradient remains on the tightened side and there will be a northwest breeze, it is not expected to be all that strong. There should be enough subsidence to the west of Jose to result in more sunshine although at least some cloud cover is expected especially across the northern half of the area. Some guidance hinting at a few showers possible across the northern zones especially in the afternoon, however the chance looks to small given a lack of overall forcing and therefore we continued with a dry forecast. High temperatures are closer to the warmer GFS MOS as some subsidence should allow a bit more warming especially for the southern and western areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Jose is expected to become a post-tropical storm Wednesday night or Thursday and meander about 400-500 miles east of the NJ coast through the end of the week and possibly all the way into early next week. The large-scale pattern through the duration of the long term looks to be amplified, featuring persistent troughing over the western CONUS, downstream ridging over the eastern CONUS and tropical activity over the western Atlantic. Owing to upper ridging and surface high pressure over our area, a clear signal for warm and dry conditions exists for the next 7 days. No mention of rain through the entire period. Northerly flow regime is typically indicative of cold air advection. In this upcoming pattern, persistent northerly flow around the backside of Jose and away from the center of the surface high will actually yield warm air advection as the core of the heat (owing to a maximum of subsidence) will be located underneath the anticyclone that will be anchored just to our north and west throughout the period. High temperatures in the 80s will be common across the area (except cooler in the 70s at higher elevations in NE PA/NW NJ and along the coast), which are 5-10F above normal for late September. Sunday and Monday should be the warmest days of the period (temps 10-15F above normal) with the center of the anticyclone expanding toward the northern mid-Atlantic region. There is a potential that a few spots could reach 90F (particularly the urban centers) on one or both of these days. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR overall, although some MVFR ceilings can occur for a time. Wednesday...VFR with cloud bases at or above 4000 feet. Northwest winds around 10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible. Outlook... Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR. However, patchy radiational fog cannot be ruled out early Thursday morning at the typical fog- prone terminals (RDG, ABE, MIV) but setup for fog becomes less favorable each successive night as drier air works into the area. Light N winds. && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the ocean zones. We decided to continue overnight in collab with AKQ/OKX. Winds have been somewhat slower to decrease this evening. Strong gusts are still psbl with showers. A Gale Warning remains in effect through this evening for Lower Delaware Bay, and a Small Craft Advisory continues for Upper Delaware Bay. Wednesday, the strongest winds should be over our northern coastal waters however these will diminish through the day. The seas will take some time to subside. Outlook... Wednesday night through Sunday...Seas in our coastal waters will slowly subside in wake of Jose Wednesday night and Thursday. Seas may briefly drop below SCA levels of 5 ft on Thursday. Thereafter, seas should start to increase again to 5-7 ft Friday into the weekend with Jose meandering offshore and then with long-period swells from Hurricane Maria gradually propagating up the eastern seaboard this weekend. Winds vary between N-NW and N-NE and remain below 25 kt thru the outlook period. Rip Currents... Hurricane Jose continues to push powerful swells into the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey through tonight. As a result, there is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents and heavy surf tonight. Significant beach erosion, localized dune overwash and minor damage to piers have been reported today. It will take some time for these large waves/swells to subside and despite the surface wind more northwesterly on Wednesday. A High Risk for Rip currents is expected for Wednesday. The High Surf Advisory has been extended through 600 a.m. Wednesday with 8-10 foot breaking waves reach the coast. Jose is expected to stall well offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend. Long-period swells will enhance the risk for the development of dangerous rip currents during this time. The risk may drop to moderate for Thursday-Friday with waves subsiding a bit and winds becoming light. However, long- period swells from Hurricane Maria may arrive this weekend, which could raise the risk to high again. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The Coastal Flood Warning has been extended to cover this morning`s high tide for the counties of Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland in New Jersey and for the Delaware counties of Sussex and Kent. A lingering surge around 2 feet in those areas will likely produce moderate flooding this morning. The surge is forecast to be closer to 1.5 feet along the coasts of Ocean County and Monmouth County. As a result, a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor flooding should be sufficient for those areas, as well as Middlesex County and southeastern Burlington County. The same is true for Salem County in New Jersey and New Castle County in Delaware. We do not anticipate any tidal flooding with today`s high tide along the Delaware River upstream from the Commodore Barry Bridge area or on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. Minor tidal flooding will likely linger into tonight and Thursday. && .EQUIPMENT... KSMQ observations are not being sent out. There is a comms problem and technicians are on site this afternoon to troubleshoot. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ012>014-020-026-027. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ021>025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ016. DE...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ430. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ431. && $$ Synopsis...Klein Near Term...Gorse Short Term...Gorse Long Term...Klein Aviation...Gorse/Klein Marine...Gorse/Klein Tides/Coastal Flooding...Iovino Equipment...Staff

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