Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 291421 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1021 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY,REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF MID MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MAINE WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS RESULTS IN ENE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL. WINDS ABOVE 5000 FT OR SO ARE FROM THE W-WNW. SO EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WILL RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REST OF TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. ON THE RADAR LOOP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VLY WHICH IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE LOWER DELAWARE VLY. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AT MOST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER OTHER AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHRTWV TROF ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE GRTLKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVE OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAWN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND THEN MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND BE WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE START OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND STARTS MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. PWATS INCREASE MAINLY ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES, WHICH MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINMAKERS AROUND THE REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR SUNDAY AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST, MAINLY OVER THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE PROXIMITY OF THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS HEADING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING... HENCE CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT SEVERAL TAF SITES... GENERALLY FROM PHL NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. VSBYS ARE NOT AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD BE TEMPORARILY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AS A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH...ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COMBINE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR EARLY...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN DETERIORATING BACK TO IFR TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFID IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND CATEGORIES FOR THE TAFS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLY, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL ON SUNDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. MARGINAL SCA CONDITONS CONTINUE DUE TO WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND LOW-END SCA WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE OCCURRING ALL OF THE TIME TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY TODAY AND THEN SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD LATE SUNDAY AND REACH 5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...AMC SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...AMC/MEOLA/O`HARA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.