Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPHI 280402
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1202 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
A ridge of high pressure across the mid-Atlantic region will maintain
generally fair and warm weather through most of the weekend.
Moisture from the remnants of a tropical system to our south may
reach the area by Memorial Day and interact with a weak frontal
system to produce showers and thunderstorms. More high pressure
and dry but continued warm weather are expected through the middle
of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: No major changes projected overnight. Temps and dews
pretty close to the hourly projections through 11 pm. A fair warm
summer like night with a little more wind on-going than expected
24 hours ago (s-sw 5-10 mph). Patchy stratus/fog expected portions
of e PA toward dawn. We`ve reset the dix sta/stp and expect to be
in clear air VCP32 for the rest of the night.
Saturday...Early season heat wave (Day 3 of the minimum required)
is at hand for PHL/PNE/ABE/WRI while other locations nearby in our
CWA have been 89-90F the past two days and today will be day 3,
but cannot officially note them as heat wave potential inclusive
(GED/REG/TTN). So, after any early morning low clouds/fog/haze...a
sunny day with the forecast likely verifying above any of the
warmest available guidance be it bias corrected, or individual
NCEP op MOS, super and national blends. Will discuss the details
in the 3am update. Bottom line...16c at 850 with a south-southwest
wind gusty to 20 mph this afternoon should allow temps to rise to
1-2F above yesterdays values. Heat index again in the lower 90s.
Not anticipating convection this Saturday afternoon even in the
pwat axis of 1.5" near and north of I-78...northern portion of
our CWA. There is no known lift mechanism. Suppose something
isolated can develop but with suppressant ridging at mid levels
(500mb) today and lack of excessive moisture (PWAT of 1.5" for a
570 1000-500mb thickness is not excessive), therefore it seems
difficult to develop afternoon convection.
Max temps again 10-15F above normal.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fair and warm with min temps again 10-15F above normal and a light
south to southwest wind. Hazy with patchy fog expected late, primarily
in the countryside. Any evening showers along and north of I-80 in
NNJ/ne PA quickly end during the evening.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The current summer-like weather pattern over the mid-Atlantic
region is expected to continue through the extended forecast
period. Temperatures will be somewhat above normal and
precipitation will be mainly in the form of convective rain
showers and t-storms. Surface and upper-level features affecting
the area will remain relatively weak. One uncertainty at this time
is how much effect we will see from the tropical/sub-tropical
system now off the SE Atlantic coast.
Moisture from tropical depression 2 NE of the Bahamas is forecast
to move N into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday with an increasing
chance of showers and T-storms by afternoon. Showers and storms
are forecast to continue Sunday night into Monday as a weak
frontal system moves into the area from the NW. PWATS are forecast
to be near 2 inches over the area so some heavy downpours and
possible flooding can be expected. Clouds and precip will result
in milder daytime temps on Monday.
By Tuesday somewhat drier air is expected to push in from the W
and decrease the chances for precip as an upper-level trough moves
by to the N. Daytime temps will recover back into the 80s as there
is not much change in air mass with the with the associated surface
front. Wed and Thu should be mainly fair with high pressure
building in from the N/NE and low-level winds off the cool
Atlantic. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF suggest another frontal
system approaching from the W or NW by next Fri, with increased
chances for precip.
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 12z Saturday...VFR with MVFR vsby possible toward 10z in
haze or patchy fog. Small chc IFR stratus fog vcnty KRDG/KABE
toward 10z. Light south to southwest wind.
After 12z Saturday...any sub VFR vsby improves to VFR by 15z with
only sct clouds aoa 5000 ft and a south to southwest wind gusty to
18 kt during mid afternoon. no convection expected at the TAF sites
though not impossible to see an afternoon shower vcnty KABE/KRDG.
Saturday night...VFR with probable MVFR vsby in haze or patchy fog
toward 10z sunday. Light south to southwest wind.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, except
MVFR possible Sunday night thru Monday night in showers and
No marine headlines anticipated through Saturday night.
Winds were gusty 20-30 kt for a time this evening along the coasts
and this drove seas upward to near 5 ft at 44065. This was stronger
than we expected 24 hours ago. We expect the southerly flow and
associated wind wave to subside a bit overnight.
So in essence, a south to southwest wind occasionally gusty to
near 20 kt through saturday night with Atlantic waters seas 2-4ft
and De Bay 1-2 Ft.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during the
Sunday thru Wednesday time frame. Poor visibility is possible
Sunday night through Monday night in showers and thunderstorms.
We`ll be adding considerable information to this section between
4 and 5 am Saturday.
Near Term...Drag/Iovino/Johnson 1202a
Short Term...Drag/Iovino 1202a