Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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302 FXUS61 KPHI 220732 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 332 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Post Tropical cyclone Jose will continue to weaken and drift off the southeast New England coastline through the weekend. closer to home, High pressure will be centered to our north and west through early next week. A cold front is expected to sweep east through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and our region on Thursday of next week which will take Hurricane Maria northward then northeast out to sea. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will remain about 275 miles east of the New Jersey coast today. An area of rain showers associated with the system was making a pass over the waters off New Jersey early this morning. It should be the closest approach of any precipitation to our region today. Any additional showers will likely remain farther offshore. Jose will continue to throw mainly high and mid level clouds back over our region today. However, the clouds should not prevent the sky from being partly to mostly sunny. The wind should be from the north today increasing around 10 MPH. Occasional gusts near 20 MPH are expected, mainly in the afternoon from the Interstate 95 corridor eastward. The northerly flow is forecast to bring lowering humidity levels to our region for today. Dew point readings are anticipated to drop into the 50s. Maximum temperatures will be mostly in the 80s as we greet the arrival of autumn. The season changes at 4:02 PM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... Jose is forecast to begin drifting southeastward tonight as it continues to weaken. The mid level ridge over the eastern half of the country will bring dry conditions to our region for tonight. We are expecting a light northerly wind with temperatures dropping into the middle and upper 50s in our northern counties and into the lower and middle 60s in the south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Saturday through Monday: With high pressure centered to our northwest sunshine will be ample each day. Mid-level temperatures are still likely to be quite warm for mid/late-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s. Some locations are still looking to have a fairly good shot at 90 Sunday and/or Monday. MAV/MET along with the ensemble guidance sets are starting to catch on to the degree of the anomalous warmth thanks to a PNA which will be near four standard deviations below normal. Some previous indications in modeling had Jose surviving a westward trip back toward the region. However, this forecast follows the NHC forecast to keep a much weaker Jose well away from our region. Tuesday through Thursday: Will continue with the slight shower chances for Tuesday through Thursday as a small amount of moisture from Maria may move into the region along with an approaching cold front by Thursday. Stayed closer but still at or just a bit warmer than the mean of the ensemble guidance for Tuesday and Wednesday given some uncertainty with Maria. NHC/WPC forecast guidance currently shows Maria remaining to our southeast and staying offshore through the middle of next week. A cold front is likely to help Steer Maria out to sea by the later part of next week. However, trends should be watched because a slower approach of this front could allow Maria to track closer to the coast. Stay tuned to the latest advisories and forecasts from the National Hurricane forecast for more information on Jose and Maria. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions are forecast for our eight TAF sites through the TAF period with one exception. Patchy fog may develop around KRDG along the Schuylkill River during the early morning hours. A northerly wind is expected to increase around 10 knots for today with occasional gusts in the upper teens in the late morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will likely diminish to 8 knots or less for tonight. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday: VFR. Winds generally 10 knots or less. && .MARINE... A north to northwest wind is expected on our waters for today and tonight. Speeds are anticipated to favor the 10 to 18 knot range. There may be local gusts of 20 to 25 knots, especially on our northern coastal waters. Wave heights on our ocean waters will likely remain in the 4 to 7 foot range. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect there for today and tonight. Waves on Delaware Bay are forecast to be 1 to 3 feet, perhaps around 4 feet near the mouth of the bay. Outlook... Seas are expected to remain above five feet throughout the outlook period and the SCA was extended till 10z Sunday. Wavewatch is likely being too aggressive in reducing swells and wave heights from Jose. Additional swell and increased wave heights are likely by early next week in association with Maria. Wind gusts are expected to be under 25 knots. Rip Currents... Long period swells of 4 to 6 feet emanating from Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to reach the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey today. As a result, we will carry a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Outlook: Saturday...At least a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents and a good chance of high risk as Maria`s se swell of 15 seconds builds to 2 or possibly 3 feet and those swells are on a collision course with the leftover 9 or 10 second ne swell from Jose. Its probably going to be rough water and bit chaotic in the surf zone. Sunday through Thursday are outlooked high risk days with the greatest risk Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, due to leftover Jose swells combined with building arriving southeast swells of 15 seconds to between 8 and 10 feet Tuesday and Wednesday. Breaking surf along the beach surf zone play area will probably reach 7 feet, if not a little higher. That should be almost double the size of the breakers that occurred this Thursday afternoon. So despite the very warm weather and still rather warm ocean water temps (low-mid 70s), I wouldnt be swimming out there unless you`re a certified lifeguard. The waters are going to get rougher again, even with the distant passage of Maria next week. Best practice: ankle deep at most and please dont put would be rescuers at risk just because it might look safe. Hopefully the sound of the surf will be enough notification of its danger. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels remain a bit high due to the effects of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose and the recent new moon. There is the potential for localized minor flooding along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey with this morning`s high tide. However, the flooding should not be widespread or impactful enough to warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory. && .CLIMATE... With high temperatures making a run at 90 Sunday and Monday across the region, some record high temperatures may be tied or broken. The highest chances are on Monday where all locations but Georgetown are expected to be within three degrees of a record. Here are the records for both days. Sunday ACY-92(2010) PHL 95(1970) ILG-92(2010) ABE-92(1970) TTN-92(1970) GED-97(2010) RDG-95(1970) MPO-85(2010) Monday ACY-91(1970) PHL-92(1970) ILG-93(1970) ABE-92(1970) TTN-92(1970) GED-92(2010 and 1970) RDG-92(1970) MPO-85(1970) && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. DE...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Gaines Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Iovino Marine...Gaines/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding... Climate...Gaines/Drag

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