Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 042304 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 604 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST. 545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM. OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND 08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z. COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE DAY. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES. THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY MID DAY. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS, FOCUSED NORTH. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY. THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR ABE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. && .MARINE... WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OUTLOOK.. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO. && .HYDROLOGY... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE. MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE. THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK. THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT. WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE... CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY 3/6 RECORD LOWS ACY 10 1888 PHL 10 1978 ILG 11 1926 ABE 7 1960 TTN 7 1872 GED 10 1978 RDG 7 1978 MPO -5 1909 THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT POCONO. SATURDAY 3/7 RECORD LOWS ACY 10 1890 PHL 9 1960 ILG 11 1960 ABE 1 1960 TTN 7 1890 GED 3 1960 RDG 10 1989 MPO -18 1911 MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5 KACY 0.3 - 1960 KILG 3.7 - 1981 KABE 7.0 - 1917 KPHL 8.8 - 1981 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055- 061-062. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060- 101>106. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007- 008. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010- 012-015. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027. DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003- 004. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603 SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603 LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603 MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603 HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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