Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED. LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT. SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY. EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS. THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE. THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING. THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY. AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED. THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT. SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET. SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA

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