Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231352 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 952 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY. IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA FOR TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 35 MPH. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS DROPPING INTO THE POCONOS, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, BUCKS COUNTY AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AROUND 930 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND IT WILL DISSIPATE GRADUALLY. ONE FINAL AREA OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR. LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FINAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DRYING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THAT TIME. THE VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH A BIT FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8 TO 14 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT. MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME. SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT. SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW. MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT, ON THE BACK BAYS, ON RARITAN BAY AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NO TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

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