Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 282002 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 402 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST, WILL ACCELERATE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESIDUAL CAA ALOFT HELPING TO PROLONG MIXING IN THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER (WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES FORECAST). LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE UNDER A LESS THAN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, THE POCONOS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, YIELDING A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST LOWS RANGE THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIRMASS ADVECTION COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN, TNGT AND FRI. BREEZY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTN BEFORE WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TNGT, BECOMING NELY FRI MRNG AND ELY FRI AFTN. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE. MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN FOR THE NEAR-SHORE MARINE ZONES IN THE ATLANTIC. NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY BUT HAVE BEEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLD (GENERALLY GUSTING AROUND 20 KT). HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST, HAS GENERATED LARGER SWELLS NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST TODAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. BUOY 44009 HAS REPORTED 5 FT WAVES SINCE LATE THIS MORNING WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF AROUND 12-14 SECONDS. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU THIS EVE AS CRISTOBAL IS ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SCA EXPIRES AT 6 PM THIS EVE FOR THE WATERS IN DE AND EXTREME SRN NJ (SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET), WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW 5 FT BY THIS EVE. THE SCA CONTINUES THRU 10 PM FARTHER NORTH UP THE NJ COAST AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW 5 FT. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REACH THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME, BUT IT MAY APPROACH MODERATE EARLY IN THE DAY AT LEAST FOR NJ IF THE SWELLS TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014- 024>026. DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>452. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...HEAVENER MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN

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