Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 292142 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 542 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE COLD FRONT IS EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY FAR BEHIND IT. THE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS THOUGH HAS BEEN FALLING APART AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND LIFT LOOKS TO SLIDE NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AWHILE WITH PERHAPS EVEN AN INCREASE FOR A TIME THERE. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY, WITH SOME DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEREFORE THE HOURLY GRIDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH THIS SO FAR. DURING THE NIGHT, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE. TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM NEAR KTTN, KPHL METRO AND KILG ON EASTWARD EARLY, THEN VFR CEILINGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG, KABE AND KMIV TOWARD DAYBREAK. THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY. NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 25 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH LOWER VSBYS. MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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BUOY 44009 WIND OUT OF SERVICE AND NO SERVICE DATE FOR REPAIR AS OF YET.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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