Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 241805 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 105 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THEN INTO CANADA ON THURSDAY. AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 930 AM UPDATE...THE SECOND RAIN BAND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELMARVA. THIS WILL BE THE START OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE BAND (WHICH SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT), WITH RAIN RATES TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE BAND. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AN INITIAL AREA OF RAIN WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAIN WAS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND IT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. IT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH RAIN. THE RAIN WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN OUR REGION. WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. A FEW SMALL STREAMS MAY GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. BASED ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, OUR MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD BE FINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WIND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH. LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY IN THE 40S AND THEY ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ON THE UPPER DELMARVA AND IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WILL REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S IS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MILD 50S UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 200 AM AND 400 AM. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO START COMING TO AN END AROUND THAT TIME AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.75 INCHES IN OUR REGION. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THE WIND SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING A BIT AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO THE DROP SHOULD BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE AREA DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PARTS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND/OR THE SHORE AREAS FOR THE MORNING IS PROBABLY THE ONLY PRECIP OUR AREA WILL SEE THURSDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER (THAN WEDNESDAY)...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 50S SOUTH/EAST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE DECEMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS FRI WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...AND READINGS SAT WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW AND FRONT MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. WE WENT ALONG WITH THE WPC TEMPS/POPS FOR THESE PERIODS WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH FCSTS THIS FAR INTO THE FUTURE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN/MON AND CLOSE TO NORMAL TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN OUR REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THE RAIN WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR TODAY AND IT SHOULD REMAIN THERE INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV AND KACY. BOTH KRDG AND KABE ARE FORECAST TO BE BEYOND THE FRINGE OF THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT. AT 14Z, THE FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SHOULD ARRIVE AT KMIV AND KACY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL AND KPNE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES, THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IN MUCH MORE THAN SOME STRAY LIGHTNING AND THUNDER IS LOW SO WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ABOUT 0700Z AND 0900Z ON THURSDAY. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. OUTLOOK... THU...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY W/NW WINDS. THU NGT THRU SAT NGT...MOSTLY VFR. LINGERING GUSTY WNDS THU EVE. SUN...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING. A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN, RANGING MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE. THE STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BETWEEN ABOUT 300 AM AND 500 AM. THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AT THAT TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 100 PM FOR DELAWARE BAY. OUTLOOK... THU AND THU NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH AND LOW END GALES POSSIBLE NORTH. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING LATER THU NIGHT. FRI THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL. THE CONCERN NOW IS COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE THREAT INCREASES. THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH, EVEN SUBTRACTING THE BIAS, BOTH TIDAL GAUGES ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE WILL GET CLOSE IF NOT EXCEED MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008- 012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ANZ450>453. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 454-455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.