Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 212002 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO WANE AS IT LOSES BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA. WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID- LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID- LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SHUTTING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS...BETTER CHANCE FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST- WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-454-455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...HEAVENER SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER

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