Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 180445 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1245 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1215A-1230A ESTF...DROPPED FROST HEADLINE MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SE PA AND CHANCES OF MUCH SIGNIFICANT FROST IS ON THE WANE THERE AS WELL. PRODUCTS UPDATED. EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A LIGHT NE-E WIND CONTINUES...GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. ELY MARINE LAYER OF HIGH RH SATURATING JUST BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 2200-2400 FT. NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. TODAY...LOW CLOUDS RECEDE EWD AS THE BL WARMS BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THEN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD DURING THE AFTN. E WIND G NEAR 15 KT BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 5PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN 2P AND 5P VCNTY PHILADELPHIA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... TONIGHT...CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUD WITH A SMIDGE OF CFP CLOUD NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING TURN W OR NW LATE AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...CIGS 2000-2500 FT SPREADING WESTWARD PER NAM 1000-950 80 PCT RH FIELD. THE SATELLITE 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY WAS A BEST FIT FOR WHAT WAS DEVELOPING AT 0430Z. TAFS HAVE ALREADY BEEN AMENDED EXCEPT FOR KRDG. LIGHT EAST WIND. AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EWD WITH A VFR CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN THURSDAY AND A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WIND TENDS TO TURN SE-S. TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS WITH CHC OF A SCT-BKN DECK NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY ASSTD WITH A WEAK CFP. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SEAS 9 FT AT 44009 AT MIDNIGHT. SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS. WILL CONVERT THAT SCA HEADLINE AT 08Z ISSUANCE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU FRI NIGHT AS E-NE WIND G 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN S TOWARD THIS FRIDAY EVENING THEN THEN SHIFT TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN. MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>103. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/DRAG 1244A NEAR TERM...DRAG 1244A SHORT TERM...DRAG 1244A LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 1244A MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 1244A

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