Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 270744 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL. WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO THE CST. BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY. THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS. FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT. TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT, RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z TO 2000Z. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT CONFIDENCE. SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON, WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.