Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 051727 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1227 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARBY OFFSHORE FRONT EARLY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG OCEAN STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A COASTAL LOW IS DEPARTING THE REGION WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW ENDING ACROSS COASTAL NEW JERSEY IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR 40 IN REGIONS THAT DID NOT SEE SNOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GO UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. WHERE IT DID SNOW A FEW INCHES, TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK-UP FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH TOP GUSTS 20-25 MPH. A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED HERE IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID SOUTH AT THE END OF THE DAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT A LOT OF THE SNOW THE MELT THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A SNOWPACK LEFTOVER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SATURDAY, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY WEARS ON SATURDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. IN FACT, BY EARLY SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. ALSO OF NOTE FOR LATE SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WHICH INTENSIFIES AS IT PROGRESSES OUT TO SEA THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE OR NO IMPACT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE, PRONOUNCED TROUGH SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TRANSFER OF ENERGY EASTWARD THAT ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THESE SIMILARITIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AND ITS RESULTING IMPACTS OF RAIN/SNOW/WIND TO OUR REGION. IT DOES LOOK, HOWEVER, WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND STRONG DIGGING TROUGH THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE LEANED TOWARD A SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE APPROACH WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND POPS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE NORTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC. THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE EXITED BY THIS TIME, BUT AN OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TAFS VFR THROUGHOUT AS SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEPARTURE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO LIMITED FOR TAF INCLUSION. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBILE THIS AFTERNOON TILL ABOUT 22Z. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING, LOWER VSBYS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THRU 4 PM FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 35 KT ARE OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU MID AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE DE BAY BUT STILL GUST TO AROUND 25-30 KT TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL BE IN SCA LEVELS IN OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES THRU THE EVENING. NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430- 431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE

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