Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 052044 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 344 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL STAGE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH SOME SNOW COVER STILL IN PLACE. WHERE SNOW IS PRESENT THE FORECAST GOES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS AND EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ELSEWHERE THAN GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20`S TONIGHT. SOME REFREEZING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY. WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TAFS VFR THROUGHOUT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TILL ABOUT 22Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED IN IT`S PLACE THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN LOWER DELAWARE BAY SO THE SCA FOR THIS REGION HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 23Z. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 9 FEET ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ADVERTISES FOR THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER SEAS A BIT SLOWER TONIGHT THAN WHAT THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOUR FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA

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