Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 010807 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 407 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VERY COMPLICATED FCST THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM. A CDFNT WAS SLOWLY MOVG SWD. N OF THE FNT, TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH A NE WIND. EXPECT GENLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS SAW HVY RAIN ON SUNDAY, SO EVEN STEADY RAIN CUD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS TODAY. ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM, AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES BTWN 1.5 AND 2 AND DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S), DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED SHEAR, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDER. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP IS THE BIG QUESTION. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY IMPACT TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION AS WELL. MOST GUID AGREES IT WILL MAKE IT THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A SFC LOW ALG THE FRONT MOVG FROM SW TO NE DURG THE LATE AFTN AS WELL. THIS CUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIP. WPC GUID AS WELL AS HRRR PLACE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM NERN MD THRU SERN PA AND THEN INTO CNTRL NJ. CONFIDENCE N AND S OF THAT LINE IS LESS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED DECENT PRECIP ON SUN, SO WILL ISSUE FFA ALG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND JUST NW AND SE. IT IS PSBL IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG, WE CUD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A STEADY RAIN THREAT, AGAIN DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. BY TONIGHT, IT SHUD BE THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY WORKING S. PRECIP AMTS SHUD BE LIGHTER DURG THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM, SO FOCUS COULD BE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION. TUESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING, NORTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ON SHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THEN PASSES EAST OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL REFRESHING AIRMASS TO START THEN WARMER AND MUGGY BY WEEKS END. THE POTENTIAL STILL DOES EXIST FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP OUR WEATHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION POSSIBLY DECAYING OVER THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE FASTER, STRONGER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS, KEPT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC ENSEMBLE SETS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERALL, NOT THE BEST DAY TO BE FLYING, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. CONDS RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR ACRS THE AREA. FOR KABE/KRDG, EXPECT GENLY MVFR/IFR THRU THE PD, BUT THERE CUD BE SOME PDS OF VFR. THERE WILL BE SCT SHRA AND AFTN TSRA. FOR EVERYONE ELSE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, AFTER SOME MVFR ERLY THIS MRNG. THERE WILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA DURG THE DAY WHICH CUD LWR CIGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN. THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT. FOR KABE/KRDG/KTTN EXPECT A GENLY E TO NE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. FOR KPNE/KPHL/KILG EXPECT A S WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE TO E DURG THE AFTN. FOR KMIV AND KACY...SHUD GENLY STAY S TO SE THRU THE PD. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS, WITH SEAS GENLY 3 TO 4 FT AND WIND GUSTING AROUND 20 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAY BE AROUND 5 FT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-101>106. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ008>010-012-013-015>019. DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON

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