Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 310933 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 433 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AFD WILL BE REISSUED SOON WITH LONG TERM.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OUTLOOK...
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&& .MARINE...
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ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. OUTLOOK... .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2 FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054- 055. NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001- 007>010-012>027. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001. DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431-450>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... JOHNSON

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