Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 281401 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1001 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION LAST NIGHT IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES ESE OF THE DE AND NJ COAST AS OF 8 AM, WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. IT WAS HARD TO NOT NOTICE THE AIRMASS CHANGE WHEN GOING OUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH SINCE SUNRISE AS CAA HAS OFFSET SOLAR HEATING SO FAR THIS MORNING. IN A CAA REGIME, TEND TO LEAN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F IN THE POCONOS TODAY, WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY. BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH. SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS. MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV NRML AFTER SAT. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR TDA WITH SUNNY SKIES THOUGH SCT LOWER MT WAVE CLOUDS BETWEEN 2.5-4 KFT MAY SPILL INTO RDG THIS MRNG AND ERY AFTN. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE. MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE. && .MARINE... NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO 20 KT TODAY. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH SEAS. THUS FAR, 5 FT HAVE NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED AT BUOY 44009, BUT THE PERIOD HAS INCREASED TO 13 SECONDS THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS THRUOUT THE DAY, SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA HEADLINE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CREATE PARTICULARLY ROUGH CONDITIONS AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD. && .RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN CANADA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026. DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>452. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ453>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO

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