Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 021954 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 354 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER VIRGINIA AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING WITH ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ARE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND A WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH DELMARVA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE IS A 20 DEG F TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE. WHERE THE SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOURS LEFT FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. PRECIP MOVED OUT MID MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE ASSOCD WITH THE RRQ OF A 140 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH IS FCST TO CONTINUE NWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THE SW MAINLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MIX...ESPECIALLY S OF PHL... AND AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IF T-STORMS DECIDE TO CONCENTRATE IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN DELMARVA NEAR 50 IN FAR NRN NJ AND ADJACENT PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND UVV MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WITH NELY WINDS TO ITS NORTH OVER THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE DRYING OUT SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FEATURE SINKS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHO MOST OF OUR TAF SITE STILL HAVE IFR CIGS AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES. MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SW LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS AND POOR VSBY AT TIMES IN HEAVIER PRECIP. GENERALLY IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL END...ONLY VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SO THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SELY WIND THIS EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NE OVER NIGHT AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA SHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 TO 4 FT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...AMC SHORT TERM...AMC LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO MARINE...AMC/IOVINO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

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