Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 180139 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 939 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG IT AS IT MOVES TO OUR EAST. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN DIGGING TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS EVE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AT 01Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT, ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY THE EARLY MORNING. OBSERVED HOURLY TEMPS AS OF 9 PM ARE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE THE QUICK INITIAL DROP, DID NOT MAKE BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS AS TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH LATER TONIGHT WHEN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPILLS IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER AS RESULT OF BACKED WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTN. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR, PROG LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF POCONOS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH THE H5 VORT MAX TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA, CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH STRONG CAA ALOFT. EXPECT TO A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU DURING THE AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED, LIGHT AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OPTED FOR ISOLATED SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD I-95. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE W/WNW AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY. MAX TEMPS N/W OF PHL WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG F COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...BUT THE LATER TIMING S/E WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE CLOSE TO TODAYS READINGS BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID LEVEL PATTERN...A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DIGS DEEP AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO CUT OFF AROUND LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD, FINALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. SURFACE PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY AND VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE REMAINING JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE CAA MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE, IT WONT BE AS COLD AS IT COULD BE AND THIS, ALONG WITH THE WIND, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FROST FROM FORMING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH COOLER AIR AND WE IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL THAN IT HAS RECENTLY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN AREAS A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER, WITH THE WINDS BLOWING, IT WILL FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ARE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL HELP US TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY DROP AS A RESULT. THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT TO END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THERE IS A WRENCH IN THERE THOUGH. WE START TO SEE SOME WAA DEVELOP AND THAT WILL ADD A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE BACK IN AND MAY PROHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS KEEP THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS TIME FRAME IS THE CATALYST OF THE EXTENDED. WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. WHAT WE CAN BE SURE OF IS THAT THIS TYPE OF FEATURE TENDS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THAT IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LOW WILL STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER LOW GET CAUGHT UP TOGETHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-ISH AND ONCE THEY WRAP EACH OTHER UP, THINGS WILL SLOW A BIT AND WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE HAVE A HIGH LOCATED TO NORTH WHICH WILL PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM LIFTING TO THE NORTH SOONER. THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME ISSUES ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEW MOON EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THINGS LOOK TO START CLEARING UP BY FRIDAY BUT IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE LOWS MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE REALLY CLEAR OUT TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD WILL BE PUNCTUATED WITH CLOUDINESS AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND SAT. LIGHT S-SW WINDS AOB 10 KT TNGT WILL BECOME WLY IN WAKE OF COLD FROPA ON SAT. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF VFR AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE TERMINALS. ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING MAINLY FOR SEAS. SEAS WERE BELOW 5 FT THIS AFTN BUT HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 5-6 FT THIS EVE AS LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO REACH THE EAST COAST. WINDS BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY (20-30 KT), ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE SCA EXPANDS TO INCLUDE THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY TOMORROW AFTN. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO MEET CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE 25 KNOTS ON THE DELAWARE BAY AS WELL. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FIRST THE DELAWARE BAY WILL LOSE THE GUSTINESS AND THEN THE OCEAN WATERS. THE SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN/AMC LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA

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