Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 221402 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1002 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND 1000 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES TO THE EAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND 1000 AM. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND HAD DECREASED. AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
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THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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&& .MARINE...
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THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA. TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT. TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP. SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING. FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA

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