Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 271016 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 616 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE SKY OVER OUR REGION WAS MOSTLY CLEAR AT 600 AM. A LIGHT WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 95 PERCENT OR GREATER AT SOME LOCATIONS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING WITH THE HEAT OF THE SUN DISSIPATING ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE 70S THIS MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND IT WILL LIKELY PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES MAY REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE IN THE POCONOS AND PERHAPS IN ADJACENT AREAS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO STABILIZE AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S TONIGHT IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL SHOULD PASS MORE THAN 400 MILES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND IT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER, IT WILL BRING INCREASED WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, HIGH PRES WAS LOCATED NR THE GRTLKS AND HRCN CRISTOBAL WAS WELL OFF THE ERN SEABOARD MOVG NE. CRISTOBAL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA ERLY THU BEFORE PULLING QUICKLY AWAY. THEN, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD OVER THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT BRINGING DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WX AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS IN. A WMFNT WILL MOVE TO OUR N ON SAT, BUT DESPITE THIS FEATURE, THE LATEST GUID HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS, THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY SUN, THE TEMPS WARM EVEN FURTHER AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES. THE MDLS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON PRECIP CHCS. THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY ON FRI. IT DOES BRING SOME LATE SHWRS/TSRA TO NRN AND WRN SECTIONS. THE GFS AND CMC HAVE MUCH MORE PRECIP AROUND. CLEARLY, IN THIS TYPE OF WX PATN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSRA IS THERE, BUT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING WITH ITS SLOWER PROGRESSION, AS THE HIGH IS QUITE STRONG. FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY LOW CHC POPS. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP COMES LATER SUNDAY INTO MON WHEN A CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA. AGAIN, MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING. THE GFS IS FASTER (NO SURPRISE) AND IS BASICALLY DRY AFTER 12Z. THE ECMWF LINGERS SOME PRECIP DURG THE DAY ON MON. GENLY THE ECMWF IS TOO SLOW WITH FROPA TIMING,. BUT AGAIN, IN THIS PATN WITH THE STRONG HIGH, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THEN, BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, WK HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG RIDE HOME AFTER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD, AND SAT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WKND, AND SUN COULD END UP BEING NOT ALL THAT BAD, ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE SKY OVER OUR REGION WAS MAINLY CLEAR AT 1000Z. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG, KABE AND KMIV. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KRDG AND KABE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK... THU THROUGH SAT...VFR AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSRA ON SAT BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. SUN...MAINLY VFR. SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES, MAINLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES. MDT CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT 1000 AM FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM OFF ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT 200 PM FOR OUR NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12 TO 16 SECONDS WILL LIKELY CREATE PARTICULARLY ROUGH CONDITIONS AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. OUTLOOK... THU..BASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, IT SHOULD MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS TO US EARLY THU AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATER THU. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU. BY LATER THU, SEAS SHUD DECREASE AS CRISTOBAL MOVES AWAY, BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW QUICKLY THEY SUBSIDE. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT LONGER. THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY IN THE PD AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .RIP CURRENTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ELEVATED THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026. DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.