Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260112 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 812 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD EAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... STRATO CU STILL SPILLING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE NW FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INCLUDING KRDG-KABE-KFWN. OTRW CLEAR SKIES WITH MAYBE A FEW WISPS OF CI OVERNIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS AS DECOUPLING OCCURS WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING. NO CHANGE IN THE MILD MINS FOR EARLY FRIDAY...ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TOMORROW-FRIDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. SOME CIRRUS...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN NEARLY ALL LEVELS. WEST WIND MAYBE GUSTING 15-20 MPH AT TIMES...DEFINITELY LESS THAN THE GUSTS OF THIS PAST CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON FRIDAY FORECAST STILL TO BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL! && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS RIDGE MAINTAINS A SW FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FLOW THEN GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY MON, THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE WED OR EARLY THU AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY PUSHES SOUTH. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUN, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MON AND TUE, THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC COAST FRI NIGHT WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT SAGS JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG IT, CONTINUING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TUE. COLDER AIR ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CHANGE SOME OF THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. THEN MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON THU. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT EXCEPT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT THIS EVENING VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. WEST WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING BELOW 15 KT. FRIDAY...VFR FEW CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND INCREASING GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15-20 KT EARLY AFTN. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BE SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA CANCELED. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERALLY A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS ON THE MENTIONED FRONT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IF THIS LOW INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. && .CLIMATE...
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THE MONTH OF DECEMBER NOW AVERAGING MORE THAN 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AVG 3 TO 3.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT PHILADELPHIA. THE DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 41.0 DEGREES. NORMAL IS 37.5
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...DRAG SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...DRAG/MIKETTA MARINE...DRAG/MIKETTA CLIMATE...

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