Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 041408 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 908 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA...WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STALL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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930 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM EXCEPT TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND THE PRECIPITATION IS ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY CHANGES FOR THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TODAY AND THEY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTH DURING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS PRECIPITATION RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TONIGHT AND INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE, PERHAPS IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REACH THEIR 6 INCH SNOWFALL CRITERION FOR A WARNING. WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING THERE FOR A BIT LONGER. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE END OF THE STORM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STEADY SNOWS MOVING OFF THE E/SE AREAS EARLY. A CHC POP FOR THE BEGINNING FEW HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING ADVANCES FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BY DAWN...PERHAPS AS LOW AS -12 TO -15 FAR NORTH. FRI/FRI NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH ARE 20 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE THAT. SAT/SAT NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. TEMPERATURES MODERATING...BUT STILL 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SUN/SUN NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. MON/MON NIGHT...FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A WEAK LOW/FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ATTM. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FAIR WEATHER MON NIGHT. TUE...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND METRO PHILLY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CEILINGS MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR MOST OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH KACY AND KMIV MAY SEE MAINLY IFR, THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. HOWEVER, BY MID AFTERNOON, CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO IFR AS SOMEWHAT MILD AIR SETTLES OVER THE COLD GROUND AND ADDITIONAL RAIN SPREADS OVER OUR REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IFR FOR TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOME STEADIER THIS EVENING. COLD AIR WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AIRFIELDS. A LIGHT WIND SHOULD VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR TONIGHT AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...IFR WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHOULD BACK TO THE WEST, THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS THROUGH OUR REGION. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR TONIGHT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING 4 AM TOMORROW MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER. OUTLOOK.. THU NIGHT...SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. FRI THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... PLEASE MONITOR LATEST QPF FCSTS FROM WPC AND MARFC. THE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW ISN`T EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, THE GROUND IS FROZEN, AND ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT. IF THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF MATERIALIZES, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED ABOUT 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID, EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WE`RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE. WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BY THEMSELVES, WOULD NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-061-062. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007-008. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027. DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003- 004. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO

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