Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 121750 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS. DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL WOULD BE THE MORNING. AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50 MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM (POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P). OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE DAY. && .MARINE... SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME PERIOD AS WELL. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS. TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES. PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN. BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY: KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO. RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW. SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX ---------------------- -------------------- ABE 8 -1 IN 1979 14-1979 ACY 10 -6 IN 1979 13-1979 PHL 12 +2 IN 1979 14-1979 ILG 12 -4 IN 1979 13-1979 RDG 10 -4 IN 1983 TTN 9 0 IN 1916 GED 13 -7 IN 1979 MPO -1 -12 IN 1970 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430- 431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON CLIMATE...

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