Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 250831 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 331 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the region from late this afternoon through early this evening. High pressure then builds south of the region on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday. Low pressure approaching from the west will lift a warm front through the region on Tuesday. The aforementioned low will track from the Great Lakes into northern New York, and then into eastern Canada on Wednesday, and this will drag a cold front through the region. Several weak disturbances may impact the Northeast for the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Another rather mild early morning across the area. Several items to discuss today as we have more warmth ahead of a strong cold front. Some varying amounts of low clouds with patchy fog this morning, with much of this (at least low clouds) across portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey due to more of an upslope component of the low-level flow. Some thicker fog/stratus has been noted along portions of the coast of Ocean and Monmouth counties, and any expansion of this is less certain. Some guidance keeps low clouds across much of the area all day, however the thinking is that enough mixing and boundary layer heating occurs to erode this by early afternoon. This brings us to the convective potential with an incoming strong cold front. A strong upper-level trough will continue to move from the Midwest to across the Great Lakes region today. This trough is forecast to start taking on a negative tilt as it reaches the eastern Great Lakes later today. This will drive strong height falls eastward this afternoon along with a strengthening wind field. The forecast soundings indicate deep unidirectional flow with some veering below about 900 mb. There should be enough instability to produce some thunder this afternoon, however strong forcing along the leading edge of the height falls along with robust short wave energy should result in a convective line. This line will probably be more low- topped, however enough instability is expected inland to produce some lightning. Given the deep unidirectional flow contributing to strengthening shear, some bowing segments are possible within the line. Momentum transfer of stronger winds from aloft down to the surface can result in locally damaging gusts, especially with any bowing segments along with stronger cores due to water loading of the downdrafts. While some smaller hail cannot be ruled out, instability should be limited as soundings show more of a thin CAPE profile. We will continue to carry gusty winds in the forecast with thunder (may need to add damaging winds later), with the convective line generally moving from west to east across the area from about 20-00z. The intensity of the convection should lessen as it reaches the coast due to the cooler ocean influence. Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will result in another very warm day, with several areas already starting rather warm. Highs will be able to over achieve expectations if more clearing occurs ahead of the cold front during peak heating. High temperatures were a MOS/continuity blend but then raised some away from the coast given a warmer start. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... A negative tilt upper-level trough will be lifting across New England tonight, with low pressure tracking across eastern Canada. This will push a strong cold front offshore early in the evening with and showers and thunder quickly coming to an end. Strong cold air advection occurs immediately behind the cold front through about the first half of the night. This combined with stronger flow should create a gusty west to northwest for a time. As the colder air advects into the area, it will also be drying out however some forecast soundings indicate that as a subsidence inversion develops, there will be some lingering moisture trapped for a time. This may result in bands or areas of stratocumulus for awhile especially across the northern zones. It will be noticeably colder tonight with an added wind chill to the mix, reminding us that it is still winter. Low temperatures were mostly a MOS/continuity blend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure settles over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday as an upper trough builds across the Northeast U.S. Conditions will be dry, and temperatures return to normal throughout the forecast area, with highs topping off in the 30s in the Poconos, and generally in the low to mid 40s for much of SE PA and NJ. Highs climb into the upper 40s for the Delmarva. Upper flow flattens out Sunday night as both the upper trough and the surface high move offshore. Return flow sets up on Monday, allowing for temperatures to climb back up to well above normal levels, generally topping off in the 50s to low 60s. From there, unsettled weather on tap for the rest of the new week. Low pressure develops over the central U.S., and a warm front will develop ahead of that low. That warm front will lift north through the region on Tuesday, and isentropic lift associated with that front will touch off some rain across the area. Low pressure over the central U.S. will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and deep SW flow ahead of that low will usher an unseasonably warm and humid airmass into the region. Highs may be around 70 for most of SE PA, SW NJ, and the Delmarva. As that low tracks to the north and east, it will drag a cold front to the east, and that front will pass through the region on Thursday. The best chances for precip across the region will be on Wednesday afternoon as one area of low pressure passes well north and east of the area, and then again on Thursday as a second low passes north and east of the area, but this low will drag a cold front through the region. Temps cool off a bit on Thursday, with highs generally in the 40s and 50s, but then temps return to normal on Friday as much cooler air spreads throughout the Northeast. Will carry slight chance PoPs for Friday as several shortwaves pass through the region. Some snow/rain possible in the Poconos, but temps will be warm enough for all rain for the rest of the CWA. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Varying conditions early this morning, with MVFR ceilings mostly at RDG, ABE to near TTN. Meanwhile, LIFR ceilings at ACY that may scatter out at times, with VFR at times in between. Areas of stratus, with ceilings 400-1500 feet may expand through early this morning along with some fog, however this still remains less certain. Areas of low clouds should lift and thin some toward midday, as a southerly wind increases some with gusts at times up to 20 knots. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to arrive this afternoon from west to east, starting after 18z. As this line moves through, west-northwest wind gusts to around 35 knots are anticipated however some locally higher gusts are possible. Brief heavy rain will lower the visibility as well. A TEMPO group was used to highlight the thunder and gusty winds. Tonight...A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms quickly shift east and off the coast early in the evening, with conditions improving to VFR. West to northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots at times. Outlook... Sunday...VFR. W-NW winds around 15 KT with 20-25 KT gusts. Sunday night...VFR. Winds become SW 5 KT or less. Monday...VFR. SW winds 5-10 KT. Monday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and occasional showers with sub-VFR conditions. Best chances during the day Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday. S-SW winds, generally around 10 KT. Low confidence on forecast and timing. && .MARINE... A narrow area of stratus and/or fog has been lurking right near the coast of New Jersey with this mostly confined from portions of Ocean County northward. Farther south, the low-level trajectory suggests not much may develop. Therefore we cancelled the dense fog advisory for all but the northern two Atlantic coastal waters zones. Otherwise, a southerly flow will continue today and the increase may be slowed due to much warmer air over cooler water. This will increase especially later today as a strong cold front arrives, with colder air quickly arriving tonight in its wake. It is tonight when stronger winds are expected as mixing becomes much more efficient. There could be some low-end gale force gusts tonight, however it looks marginal and potentially short in duration therefore we will maintain the Small Craft Advisory. Seas will also respond to the increasing wind, however this was slowed a bit for this morning. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the area late this afternoon and especially early this evening. These may weaken some as they encounter the marine influence, however some local gusts of 30-40 knots are possible along portions of the line. Outlook... Sunday...SCA conditions continue on the waters, subsiding to sub-SCA criteria late. Sunday night and Monday...Sub-SCA conditions likely. Above average confidence. Monday night through Wednesday...Generally sub-SCA expected, though winds and seas may approach criteria after potential warm frontal passage Tuesday night or Wednesday. Periods of rain/showers likely, especially during the day Tuesday and again Wednesday afternoon. Very low confidence. && .EQUIPMENT... 44009 now scheduled for rts around April 17. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455. Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...MPS Near Term...Gorse Short Term...Gorse Long Term...MPS Aviation...Gorse/MPS Marine...Gorse/MPS Equipment...

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