Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260816 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 416 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure was centered over the mid-Atlantic and New England this morning. The high will move offshore tonight and Monday. Low will track across northeastern Canada early in the week. The cold front from this system will slowly progress through the area Tuesday before moving off the coast by early Wednesday. High pressure returns later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front is expected to approach from the northwest Friday and then move through sometime next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pres will remain over the region today before sliding ewd. Expect another pleasant day over the area. Temps will be similar to ydy though with a sly flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
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The high pres moves ewd tonight as low pres moves acrs ern Canada. Its assocd cdfnt will be approaching from the w by the end of the pd. However, overnight still looks dry and mainly clear.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The mean upper pattern across the CONUS through the end of the week will feature persistent ridging along and west of the Rockies and troughing centered over the Great Lakes. This setup will keep the heat over the western U.S., well away from the forecast area over the next seven days. Temperatures in the northern mid-Atlantic region are expected to be near normal (generally highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s) for the duration of the long-term period. The large-scale pattern signals at least a potential for somewhat unsettled conditions with several chances for precipitation to the area from Monday afternoon through part of Wednesday and then again Friday into Saturday. However, the smaller-scale details will determine exactly how unsettled it will be. However, the appreciable spread seen in the model guidance (e.g., fropa timing issues and lack of clarity on the mesoscale) casts some uncertainty on exactly how unsettled the week will be. On Monday, shortwave energy rounding the base of the large-scale trough will move into the upper Midwest. At the surface, this system will feature a cold front that will be advancing southeastward across the Great Lakes region as well as a pre-frontal trough that sharpens along the lee side of the Appalachians. While there are timing differences between operational models, most of the guidance shows a band of precipitation ahead of the pre-frontal trough that arrives in our western zones of eastern PA and far northwest NJ late in the day Monday. Once again removed any mention of thunder from the forecast for the daytime on Monday with the mid-level subsidence inversion providing a cap for convection while our area is positioned underneath the ridge. There is a slight chance that a thunderstorm develops Monday night, especially across eastern PA and the Delmarva, as modest elevated instability arrives in conjunction with the surface trough. The 00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the timing of the cold front as it passes through the area Tuesday. Except for the 00Z NAM, the latest guidance has trended toward a more progressive solution. Although the front slows down as it approaches the East Coast on Tuesday as a result of downstream blocking over the western Atlantic Ocean, it likely will not have the chance to stall over the area as a weak wave of low pressure that develops along the front should provide a push offshore once the low moves northeast of the area Tuesday night. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front during peak heating Tuesday afternoon and then continue into Tuesday night. The threat of heavy rain is trended lower with the front no longer expected to stall over the area. On Wednesday, we expect precipitation to end and skies to clear from west to east behind the front. Dry conditions continues through Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the Midwest and settles overhead. The longwave trough sharpens over central Canada-Great Lakes region late in the week as more shortwave energy digs around the back- side of the trough. Chances for showers and storms increase Friday afternoon and Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd. There cud be some patchy fog in a few locations erly this AM which has yet to materialize (which would cause MVFR), but otherwise no problems are anticipated. A S to SW wind will increase durg the day but will remain under 10 kts. After sunset wind will decrease to under 5 kts once again. OUTLOOK... Monday through Tuesday night...Temporary/local MVFR or IFR restrictions possible with scattered showers and storms. Showers look to arrive into our western terminals late Monday afternoon and I-95 terminals Monday night. Best chance for thunderstorms appear to be Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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With high pres over the region today and moving over the waters tonight, relatively tranquil conds are expected and no headlines are anticipated. OUTLOOK... Monday through Thursday... Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria. There is a chance for thunderstorm to impact the waters on Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and night. RIP CURRENTS... Light southerly winds will continue across the waters through Sunday. We are expecting a low risk for rip currents today.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Klein Near Term...Nierenberg Short Term...Nierenberg Long Term...Klein Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg Marine...Klein/Nierenberg

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