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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 261342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BUILD INTO AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE HAS COME ACROSS OUR CWA MUCH STRONGER, EARLIER
AND FARTHER NORTH THAN WE WERE EXPECTING YESTERDAY, REASON FOR
THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ITS WAKE,
ONE WOULD THEN EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE AND NOT AS HOSPITABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR PCPN CHANCES THE REST OF THE DAY. WE DO SEE THAT
WITH THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS RUN WITH EITHER NO CONVECTION AT
ALL OR ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. WE BLENDED THE CONSENSUS AND
KEPT POPS LOW AND REMOVED CONVECTION FAR NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL SLOW THE ASCENT OF MAX TEMPS, BUT WE SHOULD
GET THERE EVENTUALLY, NOT MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THEM.

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E TODAY, BUT WE SHUD STILL HAVE A DRY OR
MAINLY DRY DAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD AND ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU LATE.

AS THE WMFNT APPROACHES, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/TSRA. THE GUID
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHCS ARE S PRIOR TO SUNSET. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHC POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SEWD TONIGHT AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
THE MDL GUID AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD WRT POPS.
OVERALL, THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MDL AND MUCH WETTER TWD 12Z SUN.
THE ECMWF IS DRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AND IMPLIES SOME QPF TWD
THE END OF THE PD.  THE NAM/WRF IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE DRIER ECMWF AND
THE CMC IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY, LEAVING THE GFS AS THE WET
OUTLIER.  THEREFORE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME SCHC OR LOW CHC POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, AND SOME LOW QPF AS WELL.  THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFS
ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE ANY QPF, WITH SOME MDLS SUGGESTING S AND
OTHERS N.  THE BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SUN WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY BE IN
PROGRESS BY THIS POINT TO START THE DAY. THE FIRST IS LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH VERY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MCS. THESE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE MORNING MAY
REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z HIRES NAM. SEVERAL PAST GFS RUNS
HAVE HINTED AT THIS AS WELL. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
(ECMWF,GFS,CMC,UKMET 00Z RUNS) AND THE RGEM GENERATE ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL EVENING.

850/925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL WOULD TRANSLATE TO A FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR KPHL. HOWEVER BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STAY AT OR JUST UNDER THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BACK IN THE MID 80`S FOR MANY.

IN TERMS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
EVEN FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD IN TERMS OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE SPC SREF PLUMES, FROM 700-3000 J/KG
CAPE AT PHL FOR 21Z ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-50 KNOTS IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE SREF. IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH WITH THE CORRESPONDING SHEAR TO SUGGEST A
HAIL THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. PW VALUES
WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AFTER 18Z. USED ELEMENTS FROM THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF
FOR QPF. STAYED WITH LOW LIKELY POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
PRESENT IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.


SUNDAY NIGHT:  THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS LIKELY ALREADY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER MCS TO OUR WEST. THIS MCS IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CLOUD COVER/ PREVIOUS
STORMS) WITH MODEST SHEAR LEADING TO A CONTINUED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ENHANCED WORDING AS WELL IN THIS
PERIOD. CONTINUED LOW END LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE MCS`S. 00Z HIRES NAM IMPLIES
MAIN DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD WHICH ADDED HESITATION
TO INCREASING POPS. FOR QPF USED BOTH THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES.


MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY LINGER WITH THE VORT MAX AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH. A GUSTY DAY IS LIKELY AS MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. 850/925
MB TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS WHEN COMPARED TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS ALSO MORNING CLOUDS MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS. KNOCKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MET AND MAV.



TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS.
EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PERIOD. WENT ON THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE MEX,
CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT POP ON TUESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO
LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED.  HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD.  A WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU LATE AND A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W.  THERE
WILL BE LOW POP CHCS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ANY SHWRS OR TSRA CUD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS BUT CHCS ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT TO MENTION
IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AND THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFS IN THE MDL
GUID TO LWR CONFIDENCE EVEN MORE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SWLY THRU THE
PD.  THE WIND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT DURG THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT OTHERWISE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: GRADUALLY TURNING VFR. SOME SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD TODAY. SWLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THRU TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL. HOWEVER, BOTH WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS AND NO
MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:FOUR FEET SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THINK WAVEWATCH MAY BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. 20 KNOT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BELOW SCA
CRITERIA ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG