Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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674 FXUS61 KPHI 271245 CCA AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 845 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front which crossed the area Thursday night will remain south of our region today. The front gradually lifts northward as a warm front Saturday, followed by a weak cold front stalling nearby on Sunday. The front then shifts northward as a warm front Monday followed by a cold front later Tuesday. High pressure builds closer later Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The surface front has crossed the forecast area as of the predawn hours with some rains diminishing across Delaware and extreme SE NJ. A modest onshore flow has brought cool stable air from the N/NE across the ocean and then across ern PA/NJ. Low clouds have arrived with the cooler air. This airmass will settle and remain for the day producing weather with below normal temps and frequent clouds. Showers will develop too but there is little confid with what areas will have better chances for rain. We`ll just have chance pops for today for the area. Temps will top out in the 70s with perhaps some upper 60s far N/W. Quite a contrast with earlier this week. Tonight, the front which settled south of the area last night will begin to work its way back towards the area. This will bring more frequent showers to the N/W areas where we will have likely pops for showers/tstm. No severe weather is expected, but heavy rains and some localized flooding is possible. Lows Friday night will be mostly in the 60s with humidity levels rising overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The surface front will return to the area for the weekend, but while there will be showers/tstms around for Saturday, the end of the weekend will be rather tranquil. One thing of note will be the return of some heat and humidity Sat with the front moving north of the area. Highs will return to the upper 80s/low 90s and dew points will trend higher too. These conditions will promote tstms development during the late afternoon and into the evening. We`ll continue with the low likely pops for the Delaware Valley and NW areas with chance pops for southern NJ and Delmarva. The entire CWA is in a Day2 Marginal threat for Severe weather. After the cold front passes the area Sat evening, the rains will diminish and skies will become partly clouds overnight. It`ll remain mild however with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s S/E and low/mid 60s for NW counties. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper air pattern for next week will be significantly different than the previous week. Instead of a strong upper high parked overhead pumping heat and humidity over us, we`ll see a series of broad troughs cross the area bringing more clouds and showers/tstms at times. The storm track will be nearby, so temperatures will be not feature extremes like last week, but still end up a little above normal as we approach the climatological warmest part of the year. The hottest day of the long term will be Monday as we are still under the upper ridge a bit and the temps from the weekend carry into Monday with upper 80s/low 90s most areas and some low/mid 80s for the far N/W areas and near the shore. After that, highs will mostly be in the 80s for the remainder of the week. Mid/upper 80s S/E and low 80s N/W. Higher humidity for Tuesday with dew points in the 70s but drier after that with dew points mostly in the 60s. Monday and Tuesday will feature more in the way of showers/tstms compared to the later half of the long term. Chance pops are in the fcst for Monday (mostly afternoon) with low likely pops for Tuesday. Later next week, high pressure returns to the region and dry weather is expected. It`ll remain very warm with slightly above normal temps. highs will be mostly 85 to 90 wile lows will be around 70. Chances for rain look low, but confidence in precip forecasts 5 or 6 days out in summer is low. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...CIGS gradually lowering with onshore flow becoming established across the area. Low-end MVFR then high-end IFR probable. Scattered showers thru the day. Low confid. Tonight...A continuation of low CIGS with scattered showers. IFR or LIFR possible. Low confid. Outlook... Sat/Sat night... Lower CIGS early sat then VFR expected. Scattered showers/tstms with lower CIGS/VSBYs late afternoon into the evening. Sunday... VFR expected. Mon/Tue... Mostly VFR. Scattered showers/tstms with lower CIGS/VSBYs late afternoon into the evening.
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&& .MARINE... SCA conditions continue on the waters early this morning following the front which has crossed the area. Winds and seas across Delaware Bay and the southern ocean zones will diminish after 8 AM or so, but remain up across the northern zones. We`ll continue the SCA flag accordingly. Scattered showers/tstms later today and into the evening. Outlook... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels this weekend and into next week. Showers and tstms are expected later Sat afternoon and into the overnight period. Fair weather Sunday. More scattered showers/tstms Mon/Tue. Rip Currents... For today, onshore flow with east winds around 15 to 20 mph will continue with seas off the coast building to around 3 to 4 feet. For this reason, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches. For Saturday, the flow turns southerly so there will be less of an onshore component however the seas will continue to be around 3 to 4 feet. For this reason we`ll continue with a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the NJ Shore with a LOW risk for the Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... One round of widespread minor tidal flooding occurred Thursday night into Friday with the onshore flow and recent New Moon. These factors will begin to decrease today, so no further widespread minor tidal flooding is expected. However, spotty minor tidal flooding will be possible with the high tide tonight into early Saturday along much of the coast of New Jersey and Delaware, including the Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ431- 452>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450- 451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gorse/RCM NEAR TERM...OHara SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...OHara MARINE...AKL/OHara TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL