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000
FXUS61 KPHI 061349
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
849 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
TODAY, BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COASTLINE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT TERM UPDATE TO ADD SOME MORE CLOUDINESS SOUTHEAST WHERE
STRATO CU DECK HAS COME ONSHORE. THERE IS CIRRUS ABOVE IT,
THE BACK EDGE OVER OHIO IS DECAYING, SO THINKING OF THINNING AS
DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS ARE RISING ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE, SO NO BIG
CHANGES MADE. 12Z SOUNDING MAXT CORROBORATE CURRENT FCST.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR N ERLY TODAY
AND IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NE AS A WK LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.  THIS WILL KEEP NELY FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY.

OFTENTIMES IN ERLY SPRING, IT ALL COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE
AND THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND AS TO WHAT OUR TEMPS WILL BE.  WE SAW
THIS FACT DEMONSTRATED ON WED WHEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WIND
(DESPITE BEING FROM THE N) TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FCST AND IT ENDED
UP BEING A PLEASANT DAY.

WITH YESTERDAY`S WK CFP AND THE MORE NELY FLOW BRINGING IN COLD AIR
FROM THE ATLC AND MORE SOME MORE CLOUDS, TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML
TODAY.  THE LTST GUID INDICATES MANY LOCATIONS WON`T HIT FREEZING.
HOWEVER, IF WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ANTICIPATED WILL TEMPS BE A
BIT HIGHER (ALBEIT STILL BLO NRML?) OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES FURTHER EWD TONIGHT, BUT STILL RIDGES
SWWD OVER THE MID-ATLC.  AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GLFMEX, CROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND MOVE TO THE SERN
CST BY THE END OF THE PD.  THIS LOW WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT AFTER THE
SHORT TERM PD.  TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS WELL, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND E AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TO START OFF, AN AREA OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PROGRESSING EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. A NOTICEABLE TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE, FROM
THE GFS TO ECMWF AND OTHERS, IS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, KEEPING IT CLOSER TO COAST BEFORE TAKING IT NORTHEAST
AND OUT TO SEA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION IS
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES,
MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. LOW CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY MORNING INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR THESE AREAS, WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN, EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE SLEET AT THE ONSET IN SOME SPOTS IN THE MORNING.
FROM THERE, POPS DECREASE GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

INTO SATURDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVERSING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. MAINLY
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALSO PASSING OVER
THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES, BUT WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR
POSSIBLE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTH INTO SUNDAY.

THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AS A FEW, MAINLY
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. OVERALL, WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS
THEN TEND TO REALLY DIVERGE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF
PRESENTS AN ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION,
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF BRINGING ANY NOTABLE SYSTEM/PRECIP TO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO OUR NORTH. WITH THESE MIXED MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, A VFR FCST IS IN STORE, WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYS TO
OUR N AT THE START OF THE PD.  THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EWD BY THE END OF
THE PD.  AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING IN THE
GLFMEX AND BE LOCATED OFF THE SERN CST BY THE END OF THE PD.  AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE S AND E.  AT THIS POINT, ALL OF THE GUID INDICATES CONDS
WILL REMAIN VFR.  HOWEVER, ITS PSBL THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LCL
MVFR ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV AND KACY TWD FRI MRNG.

A N TO NE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY GENLY AROUND 10 KTS.  THERE COULD
BE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KACY BEFORE
THE WIND DECREASES LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.  TONIGHT, THE WIND SHOULD
BE NELY AND LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS,
MAINLY KMIV/KACY AND SOUTH IN LIGHT RAIN.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN ANY
PASSING AREAS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL MOVE EWD TODAY INTO TONIGHT.   LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GLFMEX WILL MOVE TED THE SERN CST TONIGHT.  AS A
RESULT A NELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.  THE NELY FLOW WILL
KEEP INCREASED SEAS OVER THE AREA AND THE WIND SHOULD GUST INTO SCA
RANGE.  THEREFORE, THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS. A STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVING OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS OUR WATERS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS (STRONGEST FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS)AND SEAS BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS.
WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO SATURDAY, BUT ELEVATED SEAS
WILL CONTINUE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG