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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 221335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT
RANGE EXTENDED FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE CLOUD DECK HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR FROM THE WEST
CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST A BIT FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E
PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA AND NE MD THIS MORNING
OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE
SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE
LESS URBAN TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA