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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 300159
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS ARE
VERY TRANQUIL, ALBEIT COLD. CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD TO THE
EAST WITH ITS CENTER REACHING VERMONT TOWARD MORNING. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND ITS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS TO
OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

RADIATING CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO IDEAL FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND. THE AIR MASS
THAT IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION IS QUITE COLD SO WE HAVE GONE
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, REACHING THE WATERS OFF NOVA SCOTIA LATE IN THE DAY. A
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
AND ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE PATTERN WILL CAUSE OUR
WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ON SATURDAY.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART.

THE CIRRUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S. READINGS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW FREEZING IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED...WITH NO ORGANIZED DYNAMICS PRESENT. A LITTLE PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE SHORE IS POSSIBLE.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY...WILL OFFER
THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN DURING THE LONGER TERM PART OF THE FCST. THE
LATEST OP GFS RUN IS CONTINUING THE TREND FROM TOE 06Z OP RUN
SHOWING A CLOSER APPROACH TO THE COAST WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOW
DEEPENS QUICKER TOO WITH A DECENT GALE DEPICTED. THIS SOLUTION IS
MORE ROBUST THAN THE 00Z EC RUN...AND STANDS BY ITSELF WITH THE NAM
AND CMC MODELS USHERING THE LOW OUT TO SEA. THE 12Z EC MODEL IS
RATHER SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION AND DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE
LOW VERY MUCH WHILE IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. OUR FCST THEREFORE WILL
NOT BE TOO VASTLY DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER AND HAS SOME HIGHER WINDS
AND PCPN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SMALL CHC INLAND FOR MON NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT. PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT ANY PCPN COULD END A
LITTLE SNOW TUE NIGHT NORTH/WEST. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WED...WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO THU.
ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOISTURE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO NEXT FRI. SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
ISSUES POSSIBLE WOULD BE NEAR ACY AND MIV AS MOISTURE SURGING
ONSHORE MAYBE PROVIDES A LOWER DECK...MAYBE MVFR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHOULD
SPREAD OVER OUR REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO VEER INTO THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT FOR SATURDAY. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 KNOT OR LESS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
SUN...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CLOUDS PSBL NEAR THE SHORE AREAS.
SUN NGT AND MON...MOSTLY VFR.
MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...VFR INLAND. LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL NEAR
SHORE AREAS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
THE CENTER OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH TO THE EAST. SPEEDS SHOULD BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE NEAR COASTAL SYSTEM.
   SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA